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Impact of irrigation on local precipitation: a case study of the New Delta Project in Egypt

Ahmed O. Elbably,Mohamed S. Abdelwares,Hany G. Radwan

Published 2025 in Journal of Water and Climate Change

ABSTRACT

This study investigates how Egypt's large-scale New Delta agricultural project (2.2 million feddans) affects regional precipitation patterns using WRF model simulations. Two irrigation scenarios are simulated over a 5-month period: Nile Delta irrigation and another incorporating the New Delta development. The model is calibrated through the control run (CTRL) against GPCC precipitation data with good results. Two surrounding regions are studied: East of Nile Delta, and the North Coast. Results show that existing Nile Delta irrigation reduces local rainfall by 2.7% over itself while increasing precipitation by 37% in the Eastern Delta and 4% along the North Coast and New Delta. However, adding the New Delta project shifts these patterns: the Nile Delta sees a 1.3% increase, while Eastern Delta and North Coast gains drop to 7 and 1.7%, respectively, with the project area itself experiencing a 1.4% decrease. The isolated effect of the New Delta project increases Nile Delta rainfall by 4.8% but causes reductions from 2 to 22.5% elsewhere. These findings demonstrate significant precipitation redistribution effects from large-scale irrigation, providing crucial insights for policymakers to balance agricultural expansion with sustainable water management and climate impact mitigation.

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