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Health risk assessment of toxic elements and nitrate in tuberous vegetables: carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic perspectives, monte carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis

Saeed Rajabi,Sobhan Maleky,Hassan Hashemi,Majid Hashemi,Majid Amiri Gharaghani,Hafez Shojaadini

Published 2025 in Scientific Reports

ABSTRACT

This study investigated the non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks associated with consuming carrots and radishes, focusing on heavy metal and nitrate contamination. Children had an overall hazard index (HI) for radish consumption of 23.77, in contrast to adult males (8.20) and adult females (9.49). The HI value for carrots was 38.81 in children; nevertheless, it was lower in adult males (10.46) and adult females (11.35). Zn had the lowest hazard quotient (HQ) values, ranging from 1.04 to 1.11; however, Cd and Pb showed the highest HQ values, especially in carrots (Cd: 13.05, Pb: 13.63 in children), hence presenting a more significant non-carcinogenic health risk compared to Zn and Ni. Geospatial analysis revealed Cd levels in radish samples ranging from 0.151 mg/kg to 4.096 mg/kg. In comparison, Pb levels ranged from 0.171 mg/kg to 6.794 mg/kg, exceeding the WHO’s permissible thresholds in some areas. However, Ni exhibited the highest carcinogenic risk among the analyzed metals, with values between 7.6 × 10−6 and 7.9 × 10−6, which, although below the USEPA criterion (1 × 10−4), were consistently above those of Cd and Pb. Sobol sensitivity analysis highlighted the importance of the intake rate, with a sensitivity index of 0.913, and Ni, with an index of 0.367, in assessing risks. The findings emphasized the need for targeted interventions like phytoremediation and stricter regulations to mitigate heavy metal exposure, especially for vulnerable populations like children.

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