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Wind‐Driven Variability of Modified Circumpolar Deep Water Intrusions Into Vincennes Bay, East Antarctica

N. Ribeiro,A. K. Morrison,S. Rintoul,N. Bindoff,L. Herraiz‐Borreguero,Guy D. Williams

Published 2025 in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans

ABSTRACT

Warm water intrusions onto Antarctica's continental shelves have the potential to rapidly melt ice shelves and destabilize glaciers. However, uncertainties remain about the mechanisms driving these intrusions and their variability, in part because of limited ocean observations. Here, we use a high‐resolution ocean‐sea ice model to investigate the drivers of warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) intrusions in Vincennes Bay, where limited observations show that mCDW accesses the continental shelf and rapid retreat of the grounding line has been reported. We find large interannual variability in the simulated mCDW intrusions, with the vertical average temperature over the shelf below 400 m varying from to C on interannual timescales. The simulations show that onshore heat transport is facilitated by weakening of easterly winds, which drives a shoaling of isopycnals, allowing mCDW to access the continental shelf. The isopycnal shoaling also weakens the Antarctic Slope Current but mCDW intrusions are more highly correlated with change in isopycnal depth than strength of the Antarctic Slope Current, suggesting opening of an isopycnal pathway between offshore and shelf waters is the key process enhancing onshore heat transport. Ekman pumping over a narrow band of the continental slope is correlated with temperature on the shelf, suggesting that wind‐driven upwelling can also enhance intrusions of mCDW. Given the projected weakening of easterlies and strengthening of westerlies around Antarctica, results suggest that warm intrusions into Vincennes Bay will become more frequent, leading to increased basal melt rates and a heightened contribution of the region to future sea‐level rise.

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