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Development Of A System Dynamics Model For Blue Economy-Based Tourism Destinations As An Effort To Identify New Sustainable Growth Sources In The Pacet Region, Mojokerto

Ratna Agustina,Dwi Dewianawati,Setyaasih Setyaasih

Published 2025 in Jurnal Manajemen Motivasi

ABSTRACT

This study aims to develop a System Dynamics model for a Blue Economy-based tourism destination in Pacet, Mojokerto, and to evaluate the effectiveness of conservation policies in maintaining destination competitiveness and ensuring environmental sustainability. The method employed in this study is System Dynamics modeling using Python, comprising several stages: identification of key variables, construction of causal loop diagrams, formulation of stock-flow structures, and policy scenario simulations. The research data were obtained from both primary and secondary sources, including official agency reports, tourism statistics, and academic literature. The simulation results indicate that, under both the baseline and conservation investment scenarios, the number of tourists declined from 10,000 to approximately 8,421, while environmental quality deteriorated to zero. These findings suggest that partial conservation policies are ineffective in sustaining tourism, highlighting the need for a more integrative and systemic policy approach.related to the desired requirements. The simulation results indicate that, under both the baseline and conservation investment scenarios, the number of tourists declined from 10,000 to approximately 8,421, while environmental quality deteriorated to zero. These findings suggest that partial conservation policies are ineffective in sustaining tourism, highlighting the need for a more integrative and systemic policy approach.

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