Wildfire Consequence: Quantifying real world impacts of utility caused wildfires

Michael Dann,V. K. Akkineni,Manuj Sharma,S. Borgeson,R. Anderson,Jon Eric Thalman

Published 2025 in IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting

ABSTRACT

The last decade has seen a significant increase in damages due to electric utility caused wildfires. To reduce the number of ignitions and prevent the next catastrophic wildfire, utilities use wildfire risk models to provide insights in prioritizing the deployment of mitigation programs to the riskiest areas such that the maximum amount of wildfire risk is reduced for the effort. The two components of the risk model are (1) probability models that quantify the odds of an electrical asset failing and causing an ignition and (2) wildfire consequence models to quantify the estimated impact of an ignition at any given location within the utility’s service territory. Wildfire risk is the product of the probability of failure and the wildfire consequence value. PG&E’s wildfire consequence model is described in this paper.

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