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Multi-Resolution and Multi-Temporal Satellite Remote Sensing Analysis to Understand Human-Induced Changes in the Landscape for the Protection of Cultural Heritage: The Case Study of the MapDam Project, Syria

N. Abate,Diego Ronchi,Sara Elettra Zaia,Gabriele Ciccone,A. Frisetti,M. Sileo,N. Masini,R. Lasaponara,Tatiana Pedrazzi,Marina Pucci

Published 2025 in Land

ABSTRACT

This study presents a multi-resolution and multi-temporal remote sensing approach to assess human-induced changes in cultural landscapes, with a focus on the archaeological site of Amrit (Syria) within the MapDam project. By integrating satellite archives (KH, Landsat series, NASADEM) with ancillary geospatial data (OpenStreetMap) and advanced analytical methods, four decades (1984–2024) of land-use/land-cover (LULC) change and shoreline dynamics were reconstructed. Machine learning classification (Random Forest) achieved high accuracy (Test Accuracy = 0.94; Kappa = 0.89), enabling robust LULC mapping, while predictive modelling of urban expansion, calibrated through a Gradient Boosting Machine, attained a Figure of Merit of 0.157, confirming strong predictive reliability. The results reveal path-dependent urban growth concentrated on low-slope terrains (≤5°) and consistent with proximity to infrastructure, alongside significant shoreline regression after 1974. A Business-as-Usual projection for 2024–2034 estimates 8.676 ha of new anthropisation, predominantly along accessible plains and peri-urban fringes. Beyond quantitative outcomes, this study demonstrates the replicability and scalability of open-source, data-driven workflows using Google Earth Engine and Python 3.14, making them applicable to other high-risk heritage contexts. This transparent methodology is particularly critical in conflict zones or in regions where cultural assets are neglected due to economic constraints, political agendas, or governance limitations, offering a powerful tool to document and safeguard endangered archaeological landscapes.

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