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A Numerical Study on the Role of Wear During Seismic Cycles of Rough Faults

Miguel Castellano,Enrico Milanese,Camilla Cattania,David S. Kammer

Published 2025 in Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth

ABSTRACT

Fault zones mature through the accumulation of slip from multiple earthquakes and the wearing of contact asperities at multiple scales. This study examines how wear affects the evolution of fault seismicity, focusing on earthquake nucleation, recurrence, and moment partitioning. Using 2D quasi‐dynamic simulations integrating rate‐and‐state friction with Archard's law of wear, we model the space‐time production of gouge and its effect on the (rate‐and‐state) critical slip‐weakening distance Dc ${D}_{\mathrm{c}}$ . The study reveals a shift in time from single to multi‐rupture nucleation, marked by the progressive growth of aseismic fronts and an intensification of foreshock activity, in contrast to the simpler single‐rupture process observed without gouge. The recurrence interval undergoes two separate phases: an initial phase of steady increase, caused by the progressive toughening of asperities, followed by a secondary phase of erratic and unpredictable behavior once fracture energy heterogeneity becomes too large to sustain system‐spanning ruptures. This transition is accompanied by a proliferation of partial ruptures and by significant variability in cycle length. Finally, we observe a redistribution of the moment budget, with a clear shift from faster to slower slip rates as cycles progress. The aseismic component grows at the expense of the seismic one, leading to a systematic reduction of seismic moment per cycle by up to 50% compared to the case with no gouge. These results highlight the fundamental role of wear in reshaping the fault energy budget and nucleation mechanics, offering new insights into how gouge evolution controls the long‐term seismic potential of mature faults.

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