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MODELING THE PATTERNS OF THE IMPACT OF MILITARIZATION ON MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

O. Bulatova,N. Reznikova,O. Zakharova,S. Sarbash

Published 2025 in JOURNAL OF EUROPEAN ECONOMY

ABSTRACT

The system of the modern global security space is characterized by growing instability, rising conflicts, and increasing military spending. The discrepancy in empirical findings regarding the impact of military spending on economic growth indicates that the issue is debatable and demonstrates that the reasons for and forms of conflict are always specific and unique, which makes it necessary to seek new approaches to assessing the intensity of militarization of economies. This article studies the socio-economic differences among countries that determine the possibilities for building up military potential. It has been substantiated that a high level of economic militarization does not guarantee greater stability, and social and economic inequality intensifies further stratification in society and becomes a source of conflict. The integrated index of the intensity of a country’s military build-up was developed and tested, the application of which develops a system for monitoring, assessing and modeling the processes of militarization of countries’ economies. A comparative analysis of countries by the intensity of militarization processes was conducted, which made it possible to: (1) classify countries by the intensity of these processes; (2) identify the patterns; and (3) assess their impact on country development indicators. Based on the assessment of the relationships between the developed integrated index and the indicators of the most significant international ratings (the Global Prosperity Index, the Fragile States Index, the Global Peace Index, the Human Development Index, the Social Progress Index, and the Democracy Index), it has been proven that intensive militarization has a significant negative impact on peace and security, as well as on the institutional, legal, and socio-economic stability and resilience of the country.

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