Understanding ecological niche shifts is crucial for predicting future changes under climate change. Modelling past niche dynamics provides a baseline for gauging the severity and direction of ongoing shifts. However, reconstructing historical habitats for data‐limited, range‐restricted species is challenging, as sparse species records hinder robust inference. We introduce and apply a hierarchical modelling framework to reconstruct historical habitats, assess niche shifts over time, and estimate prediction uncertainty for data‐limited species. We applied this framework to the Sierra Nevada Grey‐crowned Rosy‐Finch (Leucosticte tephrocotis dawsoni) to evaluate changes in breeding habitat suitability under climate change.
Hierarchical Habitat Selection for Reconstructing Past and Present Niches and Distributions of Data‐Limited Species Under Climate Change
Reza Goljani Amirkhiz,Timothy M. Brown,K. Leitner,G. Hong,Kristen C. Ruegg,M. Hooten,E. S. Zavaleta
Published 2025 in Diversity and Distributions: A journal of biological invasions and biodiversity
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2025
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Diversity and Distributions: A journal of biological invasions and biodiversity
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2025-11-01
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