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Firm growth and stagnation in the United States: Key trends and new data opportunities

J. D. Kim,Joonkyu Choi,N. Goldschlag,John C. Haltiwanger

Published 2025 in Strategic Management Journal

ABSTRACT

Using administrative data from the US Census Bureau, we introduce a new public‐use dataset (“Business Dynamics Statistics—High Growth” [BDS‐HG]) that captures the full distribution of firm growth in the United States between 1978 and 2021. BDS‐HG enables researchers to analyze not only high‐growth firms but also stagnant and shrinking firms, disaggregated by firm maturity, size, industry, region, and year. We begin by documenting two key trends: (1) a significant decline in the share of high‐growth firms—especially among young and small firms and (2) a marked rise in stagnant firms. To help illustrate the dataset's usefulness, we provide three empirical applications and highlight research opportunities across major areas of strategic management. In addition to supporting new analyses, BDS‐HG can be used to benchmark research samples and assess their generalizability. The US economy has seen two major shifts in firm growth dynamics: a steady decline in the share of high‐growth firms—especially among startups—and a notable rise in firms that exhibit no growth. We document these patterns using BDS‐HG, a new public‐use dataset from the US Census Bureau that tracks employment growth across all US employer businesses from 1978 to 2021. The data are disaggregated by firm age, size, industry, geography, and year, enabling users to examine growth trends across sectors and regions. BDS‐HG offers a valuable resource for researchers, policymakers, and analysts seeking to understand long‐term business dynamism. It can also be used to benchmark research samples against national patterns, helping users assess how representative their data or findings are.

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