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Spatiotemporal Impacts of Forest Fires on Mountain Vegetation: A Case Study From Langtang National Park, Nepal Himalaya

S. Pokhrel,S. Thakuri,C. K. Subedi,Ripu M Kunwar,Krishna Prasad Sharma,Ram Prasad Chaudhary,Suresh Ghimire

Published 2026 in Ecology and Evolution

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT Forest fires in the Himalayan region are increasing under climate change, yet their interactions with vegetation dynamics and anthropogenic drivers in protected areas remain poorly understood. This study presents a two decade (2000–2020) spatiotemporal assessment of these interactions in Langtang National Park, Nepal. We integrated MODIS‐derived active‐fire and burned‐area data with vegetation indices, including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), along with climatic variables (CHIRPS precipitation and land surface temperature, LST). Trends and drivers were validated through field ecological surveys and stakeholder interviews. Our analysis revealed a significant long‐term greening trend (increasing max NDVI; Z = 2.2044, p = 0.0275) alongside a stable fire regime. Fire activity showed strong land‐cover specificity, disproportionately affecting grasslands and needle‐leaf forests, whereas closed broadleaf forests exhibited high resilience. Maximum temperature was the primary climatic driver of burned‐area extent (r = 0.62, p < 0.01), and VCI was the strongest predictor of overall vegetation health (β = 0.6285, p < 0.001). Field evidence confirmed fire‐mediated ecological succession and highlighted intentional burning as a key anthropogenic ignition source. These findings advance understanding of Himalayan fire ecology, demonstrating that climatic warming and land cover interact to shape fire risk even in a greening landscape. We propose a stratified management framework targeting high‐risk zones, leveraging resistant forests as natural firebreaks, carrying out controlled burning in areas where artificial firebreaks can be created, conducting early season burns in key sensitive zones, and incorporating VCI into early warning systems to enhance the resilience of Himalayan‐protected areas.

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