A Model for Land Cover Ecological State Assessment of Southern Ukraine Based on Remote Data for Analyzing the Consequences of the Kakhovka Reservoir Shallowing

To develop scenarios for postwar reconstruction of Ukraine, in particular the measures to stabilize the functioning of war-damaged territories, it is necessary to assess the land cover ecological state based on comprehensive system monitoring. Currently, there are no comprehensive quantitative assessments that combine multiparametric analysis of physical, hydrological properties of the surface soil layer and land cover parameters using high spatial resolution satellite data. The purpose of this article is to create a model for assessing land cover ecological state of southern Ukraine based on satellite data with high spatial resolution (10 m) to analyze the consequences of the Kakhovka Reservoir shallowing. To form an integrated ecological state index (ESI), the principal component analysis method is used for four main indicators: normalized difference vegetation index, land surface temperature, moisture deficit in the surface soil layer, and drought severity index . Sentinel, Landsat and MODIS satellite data, as well as machine learning methods, are used to calculate the values of the indicators. The ESI allows for a quantitative and qualitative assessment of the land cover state. Analysis of long-term ESI data showed a significant deterioration in the ecological state of the studied territory. The average index value decreased by 17.3% over 2019–2024, with the sharpest deterioration observed in 2022–2024 (a decrease of 15.5%). Qualitative analysis revealed that the area of favorable zones decreased by almost half (–49%), while the area of problem zones increased by 59%. If in 2019–2022 the distribution of zones remained relatively stable (the share of problem zones increased only from 33.9%to 34.8%), then in 2022–2024 there were sharp changes (an increase to 53.9%), likely caused by increased drought conditions and the consequences of the destruction of the Kakhovka HPP. The developed model with 10 m resolution enables ecological state assessment, land degradation detection and restoration planning, irrigation optimization in water-scarce conditions, evaluation of crop production potential and food security, monitoring of territories where ground surveys are impossible, and evidence-based support for land management and postwar recovery.

• Publication year

  2026

• Venue

  IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing

• Publication date

  Unknown publication date

• Fields of study

  Not labeled

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1109/JSTARS.2026.3657506
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

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• No concepts are published for this paper.

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