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Spatio-Temporal Analysis and Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics of Padma-Gorai River Estuary Using Landsat Satellite Images from 1987-2018

Islam, M. S.,Hossain, M. K.,Khusbu, S.,Khatun, M. S.,Molla, M. O. F.,Tasnim, S.,Pinki, M. J.,Kabir, M. A.

Published 2026 in Journal of Geospatial Surveying

ABSTRACT

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes are significantly impacted by natural hazards, such as floods, often leading to alterations in vegetation, soil erosion, and the displacement of land resources. This study aims to analyze the spatio-temporal changes in LULCs from 1987 to 2018, including erosion and accretion, and predict the future trend of changes (2018-2030) in the Padma-Gorai Estuary, Bangladesh, in response to flood-induced natural disturbances. The present study has utilized Landsat satellite images from TM and OLI/TIRS sensors. Supervised classification and maximum likelihood methods were employed to categorize and create land use maps, including agricultural land, water bodies, char land, and fallow land. Additionally, this study employed the CA-Markov model to forecast the future trends of LULCs over the next twelve years. The results of LULCs show that massive changes occurred between agricultural land and char land. In 1987, agricultural land comprised approximately 140.94 (ha) of the total land, but it increased to 430.56 (ha) of the total land in 2018. However, the char land is gradually decreasing; in 1987, it accounted for 1058.85 (ha) of the total area, but by 2018, it only made up 272.43 (ha) of the study area. On the contrary, the study area experienced more accretion during the 1989–1997 time period, totaling 372.61 (ha), and experienced the lowest amount in 2016–2018, totaling 19.25 (ha). The maximum erosion that happened between 1989 and 1997 was 373.97 (ha), and the lowest was in 2008-2016, which was 59.45 (ha). However, the 2016–2018 period had the highest unchanged rate, with 492.3889 (ha) of land, and the period from 1989 to 1997 exhibited an increase in the lowest unchanged rate, totaling 89.06218 (ha) of land. The prediction map also reveals that agricultural land, char land, vegetation, fallow land, and water bodies will cover 131.98 (ha), 699.66 (ha), 169.02 (ha), 80.37 (ha), and 773.89 (ha), respectively, in 2030. The study concludes that natural processes and human activities significantly influenced LULCs in the Padma-Gorai Estuary over three decades, and the landscape will continue to undergo dynamic changes by 2030. The study’s findings provide critical insights for sustainable land use planning, flood risk mitigation, and environmental management, underscoring the necessity for adaptive measures to address evolving estuarine dynamics in such a climate change context.

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