Peramalan Penerimaan Iuran Program Jaminan Kehilangan Pekerjaan BPJS Ketenagakerjaan Menggunakan Metode Hybrid Prophet-BiLSTM

BPJS Ketenagakerjaan menyelenggarakan program Jaminan Kehilangan Pekerjaan (JKP) sebagai bentuk perlindungan sosial bagi pekerja yang mengalami pemutusan hubungan kerja. Fluktuasi penerimaan iuran JKP membutuhkan metode peramalan yang akurat sebagai dasar perencanaan keuangan untuk keberlanjutan program. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengembangkan model peramalan penerimaan iuran JKP menggunakan pendekatan Hybrid Prophet– Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) yang dikombinasikan melalui Linear Optimal Weighting Estimator (LOWE). Data yang digunakan berupa data bulanan iuran JKP periode Februari 2021 hingga Agustus 2025. Melalui evaluasi kinerja model menggunakan Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), dan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), dihasilkan bahwa model Hybrid  Prophet–BiLSTM memberikan performa prediksi yang lebih baik dibandingkan model Prophet dan BiLSTM secara individual, khususnya pada data uji. Peramalan iuran JKP pada periode September 2025 hingga Agustus 2026 menunjukkan pola musiman yang konsisten dengan tren historis. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa pendekatan Hybrid Prophet–BiLSTM dengan pembobotan LOWE dalam konteks peramalan iuran JKP, yang memberikan alternatif metode peramalan yang lebih adaptif dan akurat bagi pengambilan keputusan strategis BPJS Ketenagakerjaan.

• Publication year

  2026

• Venue

  Jurnal Jamsostek

• Publication date

  2026-01-14

• Fields of study

  Not labeled

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.61626/jamsostek.v3i2.123
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

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