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The Patos Lagoon Digital Twin—A Framework for Assessing and Mitigating Impacts of Extreme Flood Events in Southern Brazil

E. Fernandes,G. Gonçalves,P. D. da Silva,Vitor Gervini,É. Maier

Published 2026 in Climate

ABSTRACT

Recent projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicate that global warming will turn permanent and further intensify the severity and frequency of extreme weather events (heat waves, rain, and intense droughts), with coastal regions being the most vulnerable to extreme events. Therefore, the risk of natural disasters and the associated regional impacts on water, food, energy, social, and health security represents one of the world’s greatest challenges of this century. However, conventional methodologies for monitoring these regions during extreme events are usually not available to managers and decision-makers with the necessary urgency. The aim of this study was to present a framework concept for assessing extreme flood event impacts in coastal zones using a suite of field data combined with numerical (hydrological, meteorological, and hydrodynamic) and computational (flooding) models in a virtual environment that provides a replica of a natural environment—the Patos Lagoon Digital Twin. The study case was the extreme flood event that occurred in the southernmost region of Brazil in May 2024, considered the largest flooding event in 125 years of data. The hydrodynamic model calculated the water levels around Rio Grande City (MAE ± 0.18 m). These results fed the flooding model, which projected the water over the digital elevation model of the city and produced predictions of flooding conditions on every street (ranging from a few centimeters up to 1.5 m) days before the flooding happened. The results were further customized to attend specific demands from the security forces and municipal civil defense, who evaluated the best alternatives for evacuation strategies and infrastructure safety during the May 2024 extreme flood event. Flood Safety Maps were also generated for all the terminals in the Port of Rio Grande, indicating that the terminals were 0.05 to 2.5 m above the flood level. Overall, this study contributes to a better understanding of the strengths of digital twin models in simulating the impacts of extreme flood events in coastal areas and provides valuable insights into the potential impacts of future climate change in coastal regions, particularly in southern Brazil. This knowledge is crucial for developing targeted strategies to increase regional resilience and sustainability, ensuring that adaptation measures are effectively tailored to anticipated climate impacts.

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