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Climate change reshapes agricultural game: Canada’s gains, Brazil’s losses, and the U.S. Dilemma

Botond Géza Kálmán,Jeffrey Yi-Lin Forrest,József Kárpáti

Published 2026 in Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems

ABSTRACT

The aim of the study is to examine three countries in the Americas with different economic and climatic conditions—Canada, Brazil and the United States. It focuses on the strategic decisions that countries make in the field of agricultural land use and export policies in response to climate change. The research uses a dynamic game theory model that takes into account changes in cropland, export potential and costs arising from environmental and geopolitical risks. Cluster analysis also helped to interpret the results. Based on this, three main strategic patterns can be identified: protective (self-protective), cooperative (cooperative) and non-cooperative (expansive) behavior. Based on the results, cooperation is rare and unstable, and a defensive, protective strategy dominates. Of the three countries, Canada’s situation is the most sustainable, while Brazil is in a losing position in the long run. The study highlights that the consequences of climate change are not only differentiated at the natural but also at the strategic level, and that a thoughtful international redesign of incentives is essential to foster cooperation.

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