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Discerning Uncertainties in the Implications of Future Land Use Change on Ecosystem Service Values Under Climate Change and Development Patterns: Different Scenarios and Cross‐Scale Perspectives

Lina Sun,Ping Zhang,Yuting Qi,Jinbao Liu,Yue Huang,Jiexuan Liu,Kang Hou,Ying Pan,Wenping Liu,Xiang Li,Xin Fan,Yucheng Zhu,Yu Huang,Tingting Zou

Published 2026 in Land Degradation & Development

ABSTRACT

Accurately predicting future land use dynamics and their impacts on ecosystem service value (ESV) is a critical prerequisite for achieving regional sustainable development and optimizing territorial spatial layout. This study proposed an innovative assessment framework integrating system dynamics (SD), mixed‐cell cellular automata (MCCA), and map comparison statistic (MCS) methods, overcoming the limitations of traditional models in representing mixed land use structure and continuous dynamic changes. It systematically simulated the evolution of land use and ESV under various climate and socioeconomic (SSP‐RCP) scenarios and, for the first time, evaluated the uncertainty of ESV across different scenarios and spatial scales. The spatial pattern of ESV exhibited a distribution characterized by “low center–high periphery”, with the forested northern foothills of the Qinling Mountains serving as a core ecological barrier. Between 2020 and 2080, land use change generally exerted a negative influence on ESV, with the intensity of impact following the order of SSP126 > SSP245 > SSP585 under development pathways. Uncertainty increased with decreasing spatial scale, peaking at the grid scale; scenario‐based uncertainty exceeded interannual variability and intensified over longer time periods. The uncertainty associated with ESV responses to land use change demonstrated significant local heterogeneity and scale dependence, while maintaining consistency across scales. We recommend that territorial spatial planning should adopt a low‐carbon ecological orientation, with systematic integration of ecological conservation objectives into decision‐making processes to mitigate the potential risks of high‐carbon pathways. Concurrently, a comprehensive system for preventing and controlling land degradation should be established to enhance the synergistic maintenance of ecological land structure and function, effectively curbing cropland loss and the fragmentation of ecological spaces, thereby safeguarding territorial system stability and ecological security.

PUBLICATION RECORD

  • Publication year

    2026

  • Venue

    Land Degradation & Development

  • Publication date

    2026-02-10

  • Fields of study

    Not labeled

  • Identifiers
    DOI 10.1002/ldr.70490
  • External record

    Open on Semantic Scholar

  • Source metadata

    Semantic Scholar

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