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Phosphorus geopolitical scarcity: Representation of 2020–2023 market shocks in the media

Geneviève S. Metson,K. Eliasson,Björn‐Ola Linnér,T. Neset

Published 2026 in Elem Sci Anth

ABSTRACT

Global commodity price spikes, as has been the case for phosphorus between 2020 and 2023, depict how interconnected local realities are in the Anthropocene. Although all farmers require access to phosphorus to grow food, not all have equal access. How issues are portrayed in the media influences how the public and policymakers come to understand what matters. Although scholars have a phosphorus scarcity vulnerability framework to analyze interacting problems and suggest effective solutions for particular places, without public coverage that adequately presents such a landscape, effective interventions seem unlikely. By applying this framework to English (83) and Swedish (79) language editorial print media articles, which reference the European Union and/or Sweden, we found that they aptly point out how access to phosphorus is not only about the geopolitics of phosphorus but intricately linked to the geopolitics of other fertilizers, to energy, to crops, and land. Europe and Sweden are particularly sensitive to such geopolitical shifts/crises because they are highly dependent on imports from Russia and China. Other countries have even higher vulnerabilities because of more limited purchasing power. Our analysis of media coverage, however, reveals that potential solutions to such vulnerabilities were not presented in as nuanced a manner. The types of solutions that were mentioned (e.g., circularity via more phosphorus recycling) will need to be paired with changes in farming practices, consumption behaviors, and diversification of source materials to be effective. Without matching the complex representation of problems to solutions, actors risk missing the mark on effectively addressing the geopolitics of phosphorus for food security and water quality.

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