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A Distributed Cotton Growth Model Developed from GOSSYM and Its Parameter Determination

Xin‐Zhong Liang,Wei Gao,K. R. Reddy,K. Kunkel,D. Schmoldt,A. N. Samel

Published 2012 in Agronomy Journal

ABSTRACT

Prediction of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) production under a changing climate requires a coupled modeling system that represents climate–cotton interactions. Th e existing cotton growth model GOSSYM has drawbacks that prohibit its eff ective coupling with climate models. We developed a geographically distributed cotton growth model from the original GOSSYM and optimized it for coupling with the regional Climate–Weather Research Forecasting model (CWRF). Th is included soft ware redesign, physics improvement, and parameter specifi cation for consistent coupling of CWRF and GOSSYM. Th rough incorporation of the best available physical representations and observational estimates, the long list of inputs in the original GOSSYM was reduced to two parameters, the initial NO 3 amount in the top 2 m of soil and the ratio of irrigated water amount to potential evapotranspiration. Th e geographic distributions of these two parameters are determined by optimization that minimizes model errors in simulating cotton yields. Th e result shows that the redeveloped GOSSYM realistically reproduces the geographic distribution of mean cotton yields in 30-km grids, within ±10% of observations across most of the U.S. Cotton Belt, whereas the original GOSSYM overestimated yields by 27 to 135% at the state level and 92% overall. Both models produced interannual yield variability with comparable magnitude; however, the temporal correspondence between modeled and observed interannual anomalies was much more realistic in the redeveloped than the original GOSSYM because signifi cant (P = 0.05) correlations were identifi ed in 87 and 40% of harvest grids, respectively. Th e redeveloped GOSSYM provides a starting point for additional improvements and applications of the coupled CWRF–GOSSYM system to study climate–cotton interactions.

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