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Development and Validation of a Nomogram to Predict the Benefit of Adjuvant Radiotherapy for Patients with Resected Gastric Cancer

S. Yuan,Wen‐jing Wu,M. Qiu,Zixian Wang,Lu-Ping Yang,Ying Jin,J. Yun,Yuan-hong Gao,Yu-hong Li,Zhiwei Zhou,Feng Wang,R. Xu

Published 2017 in Journal of Cancer

ABSTRACT

Background: The US guidelines for gastric cancer (GC) recommend adjuvant radiotherapy (ART) combined with 5-fluorouracil as a standard treatment for patients with resected locally advanced GC. However, patient selection criteria for optimizing the use of adjuvant therapies are lacking. In this study, we developed and validated a nomogram to predict the individualized overall survival (OS) benefit of ART among patients with resected ≥stage IB GC. Patients and Methods: The 2002-2006 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data of 5,206 patients with resected GC were used as a training set for the development of a nomogram. The 2007-2008 SEER data of 1,986 patients with resected GC were used as validation data. Results: In the multivariate analysis weighted by inverse propensity score, the efficacy of ART varied by the ratio of positive to examined nodes (Pinteraction<0.01). The magnitude of this difference was included in the nomogram with associated prognosticators to predict the 3- and 5-year OS with and without ART. The nomogram showed significant prognostic superiority to the 8th TNM staging in the training set (Concordance index, 0.68 versus 0.65; P<0.01) and the validation set (Concordance index, 0.68 versus 0.64; P<0.01). Moreover, the calibration was accurate, and the actual efficacy of ART was positively correlated with the nomogram-estimated survival benefit from ART (Pinteraction<0.01 and Pinteraction=0.02 in the training set and the validation set, respectively). Conclusion: The nomogram can aid individualized clinical decision making by estimating the 3- and 5-year OS and potential benefits of ART among patients with resected GC.

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