Transmission dynamics of the ongoing chikungunya outbreak in Central Italy: from coastal areas to the metropolitan city of Rome, summer 2017

M. Manica,G. Guzzetta,P. Poletti,F. Filipponi,A. Solimini,B. Caputo,A. della Torre,R. Rosà,S. Merler

Published 2017 in Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

ABSTRACT

A large chikungunya outbreak is ongoing in Italy, with a main cluster in the Anzio coastal municipality. With preliminary epidemiological data, and a transmission model using mosquito abundance and biting rates, we estimated the basic reproduction number R0 at 2.07 (95% credible interval: 1.47–2.59) and the first case importation between 21 May and 18 June 2017. Outbreak risk was higher in coastal/rural sites than urban ones. Novel transmission foci could occur up to mid-November.

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