Projected prevalence of car-sharing in four Asian-Pacific countries in 2030: What the experts think

Abstract This paper presents a “big-picture view” for policymakers and related stakeholders regarding the future development of car-sharing services. Car-sharing has the potential to significantly disrupt the personal mobility market. Thus, understanding their market penetration and implications is urgently needed. Previous studies in this domain have predominantly focused on the views, opinions, and preferences of consumers. In this study, we complement the current demand modelling research on car-sharing by applying an expert elicitation and aggregation technique that relies on transport experts’ opinions to investigate the role of car-sharing in the future. Specifically, based on the opinions of mobility suppliers, this research elicits experts’ judgment from across government, industry, and academia to gain insights into the future of car-sharing markets in four countries – Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand. The analysis reveals that, from a mobility supplier’s perspective, energy and vehicle prices will not have a statistically significant impact on the future adoption of car-sharing. The results also show that the more knowledgeable an expert is, the more pessimistic they are about the market penetration of car-sharing in 2016, and the more optimistic they are about the prevalence of car-sharing in 2030.

• Publication year

  2017

• Venue

  Transportation Research Part C-emerging Technologies

• Publication date

  2017-11-01

• Fields of study

  Engineering, Business, Economics, Environmental Science

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1016/J.TRC.2017.08.023
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

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