Project Portfolio Risk Identification and Analysis, Considering Project Risk Interactions and Using Bayesian Networks

An organization’s strategic objectives are accomplished through portfolios. However, the materialization of portfolio risks may affect a portfolio’s sustainable success and the achievement of those objectives. Moreover, project interdependencies and cause–effect relationships between risks create complexity for portfolio risk analysis. This paper presents a model using Bayesian network (BN) methodology for modeling and analyzing portfolio risks. To develop this model, first, portfolio-level risks and risks caused by project interdependencies are identified. Then, based on their cause–effect relationships all portfolio risks are organized in a BN. Conditional probability distributions for this network are specified and the Bayesian networks method is used to estimate the probability of portfolio risk. This model was applied to a portfolio of a construction company located in Iran and proved effective in analyzing portfolio risk probability. Furthermore, the model provided valuable information for selecting a portfolio’s projects and making strategic decisions.

• Publication year

  2018

• Venue

  Sustainability

• Publication date

  2018-05-17

• Fields of study

  Business, Engineering, Computer Science

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.3390/SU10051609
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

• A variable neighborhood search simheuristic for project portfolio selection under uncertainty

  2018cited by this paper
• Multi-period project portfolio selection under risk considerations and stochastic income

  2018cited by this paper
• DEMATEL-ANP Risk Assessment in Oil and Gas Construction Projects

  2017cited by this paper
• Linear solution schemes for Mean-SemiVariance Project portfolio selection problems: An application in the oil and gas industry

  2017cited by this paper
• Construction of project portfolio considering efficiency, strategic effectiveness, balance and project interdependencies

  2016cited by this paper
• A Bayesian network framework for project cost, benefit and risk analysis with an agricultural development case study

  2016cited by this paper
• Proposing a neural network model to predict time and cost claims in construction projects

  2016cited by this paper
• Bayesian network-based risk assessment for hazmat transportation on the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in China

  2016cited by this paper
• Controlling a Multibillion Project Portfolio - Milestones as Key Performance Indicator for Project Portfolio Management☆

  2016cited by this paper
• Selecting risk response strategies considering project risk interdependence

  2016cited by this paper
• Policy: Development goals should enable decision-making

  2015cited by this paper
• An Analytical Network Process model for risks prioritisation in megaprojects

  2015cited by this paper
• Risk management in construction projects

  2015cited by this paper
• Interactions-based risk clustering methodologies and algorithms for complex project management

  2013cited by this paper
• Portfolio Risk Management and Its Contribution to Project Portfolio Success: An Investigation of Organization, Process, and Culture

  2013cited by this paper
• Software project risk analysis using Bayesian networks with causality constraints

  2013cited by this paper
• An empirical investigation on how portfolio risk management influences project portfolio success

  2013cited by this paper
• Risk-based approaches to sustainability in civil engineering

  2013cited by this paper
• Behavior of internal stakeholders in project portfolio management and its impact on success

  2013cited by this paper
• Understanding project interdependencies: The role of visual representation, culture and process

  2012cited by this paper
• The integration of ideation and project portfolio management — A key factor for sustainable success ☆

  2012cited by this paper
• The three roles of a project portfolio management office: Their impact on portfolio management execution and success

  2012cited by this paper
• A simulation-based risk network model for decision support in project risk management

  2012cited by this paper
• Fuzzy R&D portfolio selection of interdependent projects

  2011cited by this paper
• The influence of business strategy on project portfolio management and its success — A conceptual framework

  2010cited by this paper
• Empowering project portfolio managers: How management involvement impacts project portfolio management performance

  2010cited by this paper
• Risk management applied to projects, programs, and portfolios

  2009cited by this paper
• Large engineering project risk management using a Bayesian belief network

  2009cited by this paper
• Risk management in a multi‐project environment: An approach to manage portfolio risks

  2008cited by this paper
• A Project Portfolio Risk-Opportunity Identification Framework

  2008cited by this paper
• Project portfolio management for product innovation

  2008cited by this paper
• What's Wrong with Risk Matrices?

  2008cited by this paper
• Parameterisation and evaluation of a Bayesian network for use in an ecological risk assessment

  2007cited by this paper
• Advantages and challenges of Bayesian networks in environmental modelling

  2007cited by this paper
• Role of single-project management in achieving portfolio management efficiency

  2007cited by this paper
• BBN-based software project risk management

  2004cited by this paper
• Bayesian Networks for Data Mining

  2004cited by this paper
• Problems in managing internal development projects in multi-project environments

  2003cited by this paper
• Toward a theory of project interdependencies in high tech R & D environments

  2002cited by this paper
• Managing multiple engineering projects in a manufacturing support environment

  2000cited by this paper
• An integrated framework for project portfolio selection

  1999cited by this paper
• New Product Portfolio Management: Practices and Performance

  1999cited by this paper
• A model for R&D project selection with combined benefit, outcome and resource interactions

  1993cited by this paper
• Artificial Neural Networks

  1992cited by this paper
• A NOTE ON MODELING PROJECT INTERDEPENDENCE IN RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

  1980cited by this paper
• A QUANTITATIVE APPROACH TO CONTENT VALIDITY

  1975cited by this paper

• A Risk-Based System Dynamics Model for Sustainable Expert Workforce Allocation in Industrial Multi-Project Environments

  2026cites this paper
• Fintech Adoption and Project Efficiency in Pakistan: Examining the Role of Risk Management and Trust within Organizations

  2025cites this paper
• Systemic risk might jeopardize your IT project portfolio: A qualitative evaluation of risk measures

  2025cites this paper
• Unlocking the potential of project portfolio: value-oriented interactive risk management

  2025cites this paper
• Risk Assessment of Live-Streaming Marketing Based on Hesitant Fuzzy Multi-Attribute Group Decision-Making Method

  2025cites this paper
• Deciphering the Risk of Area-Wide Coordinated Urban Regeneration in Chinese Small Cities from the Project Portfolio Perspective: A Case Study of Yancheng

  2025cites this paper
• Evolutionary Game Analysis of Construction Worker Safety Supervision Based on Complex Network

  2025cites this paper
• Integrating environmental considerations and resilience in material sourcing for construction projects: A two-stage stochastic programming model

  2025cites this paper
• Modeling for delay of risk propagation in divisible project portfolio selection based on the project interaction

  2025cites this paper
• How artificial intelligence will transform project management in the age of digitization: a systematic literature review

  2024cites this paper
• Project Risk Response Decision Making Under Uncertain Project Interdependencies

  2024cites this paper
• Analysis of Material Supply Chain Risk Weight Using Severity Index Method

  2024cites this paper
• Modelling for resource risk propagation in dynamic heterogeneous project portfolio network

  2024cites this paper
• An explorative Bayesian analysis of functional dependencies in emergency management systems

  2024cites this paper
• Towards a comprehensive framework for risk assessment of organizational development project portfolios

  2024influential citation
• A fire risk assessment method for offshore platforms: applications of 24Model with BN

  2024cites this paper
• Determinants of the Effectiveness of Risk Management in the Project Portfolio in the FinTech Industry

  2024cites this paper
• Enhancing project portfolio selection for construction holding firms: a multi-objective optimization framework with risk analysis

  2024cites this paper
• Evaluation of Risk Management Identification Strategy in Construction of Schools’ Buildings in Enugu Metropolis of Enugu State

  2024cites this paper
• Dynamic assessment of stakeholder conflict risk for R&D project portfolios

  2023cites this paper
• A Quantitative Analysis of Decision-Making Risk Factors for Mega Infrastructure Projects in China

  2023cites this paper
• Analysing the Impact of Risk Management Practice on Construction Project Performance: A Systematic Literature Review

  2023cites this paper
• Modeling of Project Portfolio Risk Evolution and Response under the Influence of Interactions

  2023cites this paper
• Risk evolution and mitigation of the urban river ecological governance project based on social network analysis

  2023cites this paper
• Relationships between IT Project Portfolio risk and IT Project Portfolio health

  2023cites this paper
• A New Multi-Dimensional Framework for Start-Ups Lifespan Assessment Using Bayesian Networks

  2023cites this paper
• Compressing project to minimize the increased risk and cost

  2022cites this paper
• BIM-integrated portfolio-based strategic asset data quality management

  2022cites this paper
• Evaluating the criticality of the product development project portfolio network from the perspective of risk propagation

  2022cites this paper
• Structural and Functional Modeling of Processes with a Dedicated Control Subject

  2022cites this paper
• Project Portfolio Reliability: A Bayesian Approach for LeAgile Projects

  2022cites this paper
• Using Bayesian Networks for Selecting Risk-Response Strategies in Construction Projects

  2022cites this paper
• Kajian Identifikasi Risiko Pada Tahap Pelaksanaan Proyek Konstruksi: Studi Kasus Multiple Project Management

  2022cites this paper
• Investor Segments by Perceived Project Risk and Their Characteristics Based on Primary Research Results

  2022cites this paper
• Modeling for external stakeholder risk assessment of project portfolios

  2022cites this paper
• Spatial conflict simulator using game engine technology and Bayesian networks for workspace management

  2022cites this paper
• GA-BP neural network modeling for project portfolio risk prediction

  2022cites this paper
• Measuring the system resilience of project portfolio network considering risk propagation

  2022cites this paper
• Risk Response Strategies Selection over the Life Cycle of Project Portfolio

  2022cites this paper
• Dynamic assessment of project portfolio risks from the life cycle perspective

  2022cites this paper
• Uncertain Public R&D Project Portfolio Selection Considering Sectoral Balancing and Project Failure

  2022cites this paper
• Modeling the Risk of an Organizational Development Portfolio

  2022cites this paper
• IT Project Portfolio Risks: development and validation of a reference model

  2022cites this paper
• Construction of Bank Credit White List Access System Based on Grey Clustering Algorithm

  2022cites this paper
• MIDST: an enhanced development environment that improves the maintainability of a data science analysis

  2021cites this paper
• Efficiency management of discrete production systems under the dynamics of project portfolio

  2021cites this paper
• Analysing the Risk Propagation in the Project Portfolio Network using the SIRF Model

  2021influential citation
• Project Initiation, Monitoring and Control on Performance of the Regional Pastoral Livelihoods Resilience Project, Kenya

  2021cites this paper
• Project portfolio risk assessment in digital transformation: challenges and opportunities

  2021cites this paper
• Continual learning with a Bayesian approach for evolving the baselines of a leagile project portfolio

  2021cites this paper
• Social media in project management: A systematic narrative literature review

  2021cites this paper
• Sustainable Risk Management in IT Enterprises

  2021cites this paper
• The digital transformation program management in medium-sized businesses: A network approach

  2021cites this paper
• THE MANAGEMENT EFFICIENCY OF THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT POLICY UNDER THAILAND’S ENERGY LAW: ENRICHING THE SEM-BASED ON THE ARIMAXI MODEL

  2021cites this paper
• Dynamic Portfolio Selection in Gas Transmission Projects Considering Sustainable Strategic Alignment and Project Interdependencies through Value Analysis

  2021cites this paper
• Review of Optimization Dynamically Applied in the Construction and the Application Potential of ICT

  2021cites this paper
• A method for project portfolio risk assessment considering risk interdependencies - a network perspective

  2021cites this paper
• Applications of Bayesian approaches in construction management research: a systematic review

  2021cites this paper
• Decision Tree and AHP Methods Application for Projects Assessment: A Case Study

  2021cites this paper
• Project Portfolio Construction Using Extreme Value Theory

  2021cites this paper
• A clustering-based review on project portfolio optimization methods

  2021cites this paper
• Regression analysis of the influence of demographic characteristics using risk management practices within South African small and medium construction enterprises

  2021cites this paper
• Project portfolio risk analysis with the consideration of project interdependencies

  2021cites this paper
• Risk assessment modeling for knowledge based and startup projects based on feasibility studies: A Bayesian network approach

  2021cites this paper
• Risk Response of Complex Projects: Risk Association Network Method

  2021cites this paper
• Project portfolio risk management: a structured literature review with future directions for research

  2021cites this paper
• A survey on the suitability of risk identification techniques in the current networked environment

  2021cites this paper
• Project Portfolio Resource Risk Assessment considering Project Interdependency by the Fuzzy Bayesian Network

  2020cites this paper
• Identification of the Tourism Risks for Z-Value Based Risk Assessment

  2020cites this paper
• Risk Assessment of Gas Leakage from School Laboratories Based on the Bayesian Network

  2020cites this paper
• A refined selection method for project portfolio optimization considering project interactions

  2020cites this paper
• Urban agglomeration ecological risk transfer model based on Bayesian and ecological network

  2020cites this paper
• Improvement of waste tyre recycling technology based on a new tyre markings

  2020cites this paper
• The Social Risk of High-Speed Rail Projects in China: A Bayesian Network Analysis

  2020cites this paper
• A Principal-Agent Theory Perspective on PPP Risk Allocation

  2019cites this paper
• Risk Analysis of Chemical Plant Explosion Accidents Based on Bayesian Network

  2019cites this paper
• Project Portfolio Risk Prediction and Analysis using the Random Walk Method

  2019cites this paper
• Operational risk categorization in project-based organizations: A theoretical perspective from a project portfolio risk lens

  2019cites this paper
• AN INTEGRATED FUZZY DEMATEL-FUZZY ANP MODEL FOR EVALUATING CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS BY CONSIDERING INTERRELATIONSHIPS AMONG RISK FACTORS

  2019cites this paper
• Application of Duration Measure in Quantifying the Sensitivity of Project Returns to Changes in Discount Rates

  2019cites this paper
• Risks assessment model for the sustainable built environment of finishing construction works

  2019cites this paper
• Human Factors Analysis of Air Traffic Safety Based on HFACS-BN Model

  2019cites this paper
• An Evidential Model for Environmental Risk Assessment in Projects Using Dempster–Shafer Theory of Evidence

  2019cites this paper
• Evaluation of Risk Management Practice in the Nigeria Construction Industry

  2019cites this paper
• Application of Z-Numbers Based Approach to Project Risks Assessment

  2019cites this paper
• Safety risks in rail stations: An interactive approach

  2019cites this paper
• The Redesigning of Tires and the Recycling Process to Maintain an Efficient Circular Economy

  2019cites this paper
• Risk Assessment of Additional Works in Railway Construction Investments Using the Bayes Network

  2019cites this paper
• The risk assessment model for construction projects including value creation and protection aspects

  2019cites this paper
• Risk Assessment of Underground Subway Stations to Fire Disasters Using Bayesian Network

  2018cites this paper
• A Hybrid HFACS-BN Model for Analysis of Mongolian Aviation Professionals’ Awareness of Human Factors Related to Aviation Safety

  2018cites this paper
• Sustainability in Construction Engineering

  2018cites this paper