Exploratory analysis of extremely low tropical cyclone activity during the late‐season of 2010 and 1998 over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea

This study attempts to understand why the tropical cyclone (TC) frequency over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea was so low in 2010 and 1998 even though a strong La Niña signal occurred in both years. We found that the TC frequency during the late‐season (October to December), not in the peak season (July to September), makes 2010 a record low year; the next lowest year is 1998. Specifically, four TCs were observed over the South China Sea (SCS) in the late‐season of 1998, but no TCs occurred over the SCS in the same season during 2010. The genesis potential index is used to help diagnose changes in environmental conditions for TC genesis frequency. Results indicate that the decreased low‐level vorticity makes the largest contribution to the decreased TC formation over the SCS. The second largest contribution comes from the enhanced vertical wind shear, with relatively small contributions from the negative anomaly in potential intensity and reduction in midlevel relative humidity. These observational results are consistent with numerical simulations using a state of the art model from the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI‐AGCM 3.2 Model). Numerical experiments show that the unfavorable conditions for sharply decreased TC formation during the late‐season over the SCS in 2010 mainly results from the sea surface temperature anomaly over the western North Pacific basin. This effect is partly offset by the sea surface temperature anomaly in the South Indian Ocean and Northern Indian Ocean basins.

• Publication year

  2014

• Venue

  Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

• Publication date

  2014-12-01

• Fields of study

  Geology, Environmental Science

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1002/2014MS000381
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

• A Spectral Cumulus Parameterization Scheme Interpolating between Two Convective Updrafts with Semi-Lagrangian Calculation of Transport by Compensatory Subsidence

  2015cited by this paper
• An Abrupt Decrease in the Late-Season Typhoon Activity over the Western North Pacific

  2014cited by this paper
• Decadal variations of intense tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific during 1948–2010

  2014cited by this paper
• Projected increase in tropical cyclones near Hawaii

  2013cited by this paper
• Future changes in tropical cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean projected by high-resolution MRI-AGCMs

  2013cited by this paper
• Attribution of Decadal Variability in Tropical Cyclone Passage Frequency over the Western North Pacific: A New Approach Emphasizing the Genesis Location of Cyclones

  2013cited by this paper
• Modulation of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity by the ISO. Part I: Genesis and Intensity

  2013cited by this paper
• Dynamically Derived Tropical Cyclone Intensity Changes over the Western North Pacific

  2012cited by this paper
• Climate Simulations Using MRI-AGCM3.2 with 20-km Grid

  2012cited by this paper
• On the Mechanism of Tropical Cyclone Frequency Changes Due to Global Warming

  2012cited by this paper
• Influence of Tropical Indian Ocean Warming and ENSO on Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific

  2012cited by this paper
• Inactive Period of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity in 1998–2011

  2012cited by this paper
• Recent historically low global tropical cyclone activity

  2011cited by this paper
• Interannual Changes of Tropical Cyclone Intensity in the Western North Pacific

  2011cited by this paper
• Reliability Analysis of Climate Change of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific

  2011cited by this paper
• Contributions of ENSO and East Indian Ocean SSTA to the Interannual Variability of Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Frequency

  2011cited by this paper
• Tropical Indian Ocean Influence on Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones in Summer following Strong El Niño

  2011cited by this paper
• Seasonal Modulation of Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations on Tropical Cyclone Geneses in the Western North Pacific

  2011cited by this paper
• Influence of Sea Surface Warming on Environmental Factors Affecting Long-Term Changes of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation

  2010cited by this paper
• Trend discrepancies among three best track data sets of western North Pacific tropical cyclones

  2010cited by this paper
• Assessing the influence of the ENSO on tropical cyclone prevailing tracks in the western North Pacific

  2010cited by this paper
• Systematic Variation of Summertime Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Pacific in Relation to the Madden–Julian Oscillation

  2008cited by this paper
• Decadal variations of intense typhoon occurrence in the western North Pacific

  2008cited by this paper
• Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions

  2008cited by this paper
• Hurricanes and Global Warming: Results from Downscaling IPCC AR4 Simulations

  2008cited by this paper
• What Has Changed the Proportion of Intense Hurricanes in the Last 30 Years

  2008cited by this paper
• Interdecadal Variability of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracks

  2008cited by this paper
• Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming

  2007cited by this paper
• Use of a Genesis Potential Index to Diagnose ENSO Effects on Tropical Cyclone Genesis

  2007cited by this paper
• Tropical sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, and hurricane development

  2007cited by this paper
• Trends in western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity

  2006cited by this paper
• Interdecadal Variability of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity

  2006cited by this paper
• Variability in Intense Tropical Cyclone Days in the Western North Pacific

  2006cited by this paper
• Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years

  2005cited by this paper
• Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity and ENSO

  2005cited by this paper
• Tropical Cyclone Formation in a Sheared Environment: A Case Study

  2004cited by this paper
• Improved Extended Reconstruction of SST (1854–1997)

  2004cited by this paper
• Impact of CO2-Induced Warming on Simulated Hurricane Intensity and Precipitation: Sensitivity to the Choice of Climate Model and Convective Parameterization

  2004cited by this paper
• Interdecadal Changes in Summertime Typhoon Tracks

  2004cited by this paper
• Tropical cyclone activity and the global climate system

  2004cited by this paper
• Interdecadal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Frequency over the Western North Pacific in a High-Resolution Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled GCM

  2003cited by this paper
• How Strong ENSO Events Affect Tropical Storm Activity over the Western North Pacific(.

  2002cited by this paper
• The Interannual Variability in the Genesis Location of Tropical Cyclones in the Northwest Pacific

  2002cited by this paper
• Low frequency variability of tropical cyclone potential intensity 1. Interannual to interdecadal variability

  2002cited by this paper
• Interdecadal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Pacific

  2001cited by this paper
• Pacific–East Asian Teleconnection: How Does ENSO Affect East Asian Climate?

  2000cited by this paper
• Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific Associated with El Niño and La Niña Events

  2000cited by this paper
• Impact of Large-Scale Circulation on Tropical Storm Frequency, Intensity, and Location, Simulated by an Ensemble of GCM Integrations

  1999cited by this paper
• Simulated increase of hurricane intensities in a CO2-warmed climate

  1998cited by this paper
• Interannual Variation of the Summer Synoptic-Scale Disturbance Activity in the Western Tropical Pacific

  1998cited by this paper
• Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclones to Surface Exchange Coefficients and a Revised Steady-State Model incorporating Eye Dynamics

  1995cited by this paper
• The Relationship Between Tropical Cyclones of the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans and the Madden-J

  1994cited by this paper
• An Exploratory Analysis of the Relationship between Tropical Storm Formation in the Western North Pacific and ENSO

  1994cited by this paper
• A GCM Simulation of the Relationship between Tropical-Storm Formation and ENSO

  1992cited by this paper
• El Niño and tropical cyclone frequency in the Australian region and the northwest Pacific

  1988cited by this paper
• The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate

  1987cited by this paper
• Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Northwest Pacific in Relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation Phenomenon

  1985cited by this paper
• Observational Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Formation. Part II: Comparison of Non-Developing versus Developing Systems

  1981cited by this paper
• GLOBAL VIEW OF THE ORIGIN OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCES AND STORMS

  1968cited by this paper

• Distinct Impacts of the Two Types of Summer ENSO on Tropical Cyclone Genesis in the Western North Pacific

  2025cites this paper
• Why Super Typhoon Occurrence Over the Western North Pacific Ocean Tends to be More in Autumn Than Summer

  2024cites this paper
• Detecting Interdecadal Change in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis Based on Cluster Analysis Using pHash + Kmeans

  2022cites this paper
• The Influence of Large-Scale Environment on the Extremely Active Tropical Cyclone Activity in November 2019 over the Western North Pacific

  2021cites this paper
• Autumn Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific during 1949-2016: A Statistical Study

  2020cites this paper
• Possible Influence of Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature on the Proportion of Rapidly Intensifying Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones during the Extended Boreal Summer

  2020cites this paper
• Recent Increased Covariability of Tropical Cyclogenesis Latitude and Longitude over the Western North Pacific during the Extended Boreal Summer

  2019cites this paper
• Recent Strengthening of the Relationship between the Western North Pacific Monsoon and Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity during the Boreal Summer

  2019cites this paper
• Consistent Late Onset of the Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season Following major El Niño Events

  2019cites this paper
• Changes in Characteristics of Rapidly Intensifying Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones Related to Climate Regime Shifts

  2018cites this paper
• Inter-decadal change of the lagged inter-annual relationship between local sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific

  2018cites this paper
• Perspective on the northwestward shift of autumn tropical cyclogenesis locations over the western North Pacific from shifting ENSO

  2018cites this paper
• Changing relationship between La Niña and tropical cyclone landfalling activity in South China (La Niña and TC landfalling activity in South China)

  2018cites this paper
• Impact of the boreal summer quasi‐biweekly oscillation on Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone activity

  2018cites this paper
• Is there a quiescent typhoon season over the western North Pacific following a strong El Niño event?

  2018cites this paper
• Recent decrease in genesis productivity of tropical cloud clusters over the Western North Pacific

  2018cites this paper
• Potential Large-Scale Forcing Mechanisms Driving Enhanced North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity since the Mid-1990s

  2017cites this paper
• Climatological analysis of passage-type tropical cyclones from the Western North Pacific into the South China Sea

  2017cites this paper
• Interdecadal variation of tropical cyclone genesis frequency in late season over the western North Pacific

  2017cites this paper
• A downscaling technique to simulate changes in western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity between two types of El Niño events

  2016cites this paper
• Boreal Summer Synoptic-Scale Waves over the Western North Pacific in Multimodel Simulations

  2016cites this paper
• Interdecadal modulation on the relationship between ENSO and typhoon activity during the late season in the western North Pacific

  2016cites this paper
• Simulation and Prediction of Category 4 and 5 Hurricanes in the High-Resolution GFDL HiFLOR Coupled Climate Model

  2015cites this paper