Large-scale forest scenario models are intensively used to make projections of forest areas of up to hundreds of millions of hectares. Within Europe, such projections have been done for 11 countries at the individual national scale, most often to foresee the long-term implications of the ongoing forest management. However, the validity of the models has rarely been tested. The aim of this study was 1. to validate the European Forest Information SCENario model (EFISCEN) by running it on historic Finnish forest inventory data, 2. to improve the model based on the validation, and 3. to project the Finnish forest development till 2050 with the improved model under alternative scenarios. The results of the validation showed that EFISCEN is capable of making reliable large-scale projections of forest resources for periods up to 50–60 years. Based on the validation, the model was improved concerning simulation of age development, thinning regimes and regrowth after thinning. The projection of the Finnish forests till 2050 with the improved model presented a maximum sustainable felling level of around 70 million m3 per year. That provides an average growing stock of 106 m3 ha–1 in 2050 and a net annual increment of 3.6 m3 ha–1 y–1. If the current trend towards more nature oriented forest management continues and 1.39 million ha of forests have been set aside additionally for nature reserves by 2050, the felling level could meet a realistic demand of 57 million m3 per year in 2050. Under the latter regime the average growing stock will have grown to 160 m3 ha–1 in 2050.
Validation of the European Forest Information Scenario Model (EFISCEN) and a projection of Finnish forests
G. Nabuurs,M. Schelhaas,A. Pussinen
Published 2000 in Silva Fennica
ABSTRACT
PUBLICATION RECORD
- Publication year
2000
- Venue
Silva Fennica
- Publication date
Unknown publication date
- Fields of study
Biology, Geography, Environmental Science
- Identifiers
- External record
- Source metadata
Semantic Scholar
CITATION MAP
EXTRACTION MAP
CLAIMS
CONCEPTS
- age development simulation
The model component that advances forest age structure over time during scenario runs.
Aliases: simulation of age development
- european forest information scenario model (efiscen)
A large-scale European forest scenario model used to project forest resource development from inventory data.
Aliases: EFISCEN
- historic finnish forest inventory data
Past Finnish forest inventory observations used as the historical basis for validating the model.
Aliases: Finnish forest inventory data
- maximum sustainable felling level
The harvest level that can be maintained over time without depleting the modeled forest resource.
Aliases: sustainable felling level
- nature-oriented forest management
A management regime that shifts forest use toward less intensive and more conservation-focused practices.
Aliases: more nature oriented forest management
- regrowth after thinning
The simulated post-thinning growth response of forest stands in the model.
Aliases: recovery after thinning
- set-aside forests
Forest area removed from regular production and reserved for nature conservation.
Aliases: forests set aside for nature reserves
- thinning regimes
The set of thinning rules and schedules used to represent forest management interventions in the model.
Aliases: thinning
REFERENCES
Showing 1-23 of 23 references · Page 1 of 1
CITED BY
Showing 1-87 of 87 citing papers · Page 1 of 1