Scenarios and Models to Support Global Conservation Targets.

Global biodiversity targets have far-reaching implications for nature conservation worldwide. Scenarios and models hold unfulfilled promise for ensuring such targets are well founded and implemented; here, we review how they can and should inform the Aichi Targets of the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity and their reformulation. They offer two clear benefits: providing a scientific basis for the wording and quantitative elements of targets; and identifying synergies and trade-offs by accounting for interactions between targets and the actions needed to achieve them. The capacity of scenarios and models to address complexity makes them invaluable for developing meaningful targets and policy, and improving conservation outcomes.

• Publication year

  2019

• Venue

  Trends in Ecology & Evolution

• Publication date

  2019-01-01

• Fields of study

  Medicine, Business, Environmental Science

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1016/j.tree.2018.10.006PMID 30514580
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar, PubMed

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

• Expanding the Role of Targets in Conservation Policy.

  2018cited by this paper
• Aiming higher to bend the curve of biodiversity loss

  2018cited by this paper
• Projecting the performance of conservation interventions

  2017cited by this paper
• Assessing the suitability of diversity metrics to detect biodiversity change

  2017cited by this paper
• Strengthening protected areas for biodiversity and ecosystem services in China

  2017cited by this paper
• Finding pathways to national-scale land-sector sustainability

  2017cited by this paper
• A Systematic Study of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Interactions

  2017cited by this paper
• Fisheries Science and Participatory Management Strategy Evaluation: Eliciting Objectives, Visions and System Models

  2017cited by this paper
• The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

  2017cited by this paper
• Process, Mechanism, and Modeling in Macroecology.

  2017cited by this paper
• Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change

  2016cited by this paper
• Global Biodiversity Indicators Reflect the Modeled Impacts of Protected Area Policy Change

  2016cited by this paper
• Modelling and attitudes towards the future

  2016cited by this paper
• Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land‐use changes

  2016cited by this paper
• Biodiversity and ecosystem services require IPBES to take novel approach to scenarios

  2016cited by this paper
• Catch reconstructions reveal that global marine fisheries catches are higher than reported and declining

  2016cited by this paper
• Quantifying the relative irreplaceability of important bird and biodiversity areas

  2016cited by this paper
• Synergies and trade‐offs in achieving global biodiversity targets

  2016cited by this paper
• Projecting Global Biodiversity Indicators under Future Development Scenarios

  2016cited by this paper
• Using scenarios and models to inform decision making in policy design and implementation (Chapter 2)

  2016cited by this paper
• Moving towards ecosystem-based fisheries management: Options for parameterizing multi-species biological reference points

  2016cited by this paper
• Formulating Smart Commitments on Biodiversity: Lessons from the Aichi Targets

  2016cited by this paper
• Improvements in ecosystem services from investments in natural capital

  2016cited by this paper
• Effective Coverage Targets for Ocean Protection

  2016cited by this paper
• An alternative reference point in the context of ecosystem-based fisheries management: maximum sustainable dead biomass

  2015cited by this paper
• A conservation planning approach to mitigate the impacts of leakage from protected area networks

  2015cited by this paper
• Shortfalls and Solutions for Meeting National and Global Conservation Area Targets

  2015cited by this paper
• A social–ecological systems analysis of impediments to delivery of the Aichi 2020 Targets and potentially more effective pathways to the conservation of biodiversity

  2015cited by this paper
• Being smart about SMART environmental targets

  2015cited by this paper
• The difference conservation makes to extinction risk of the world's ungulates

  2015cited by this paper
• Marine protection targets: an updated assessment of global progress

  2015cited by this paper
• Modelling marine protected areas: insights and hurdles

  2015cited by this paper
• Socio-economic and ecological impacts of global protected area expansion plans

  2015cited by this paper
• Producing Targets for Conservation: Science and Politics at the Tenth Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity

  2014cited by this paper
• The false classification of extinction risk in noisy environments

  2014cited by this paper
• Natural Hazards in a Changing World: A Case for Ecosystem-Based Management

  2014cited by this paper
• Targeting Global Protected Area Expansion for Imperiled Biodiversity

  2014cited by this paper
• An Integrated Approach Is Needed for Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management: Insights from Ecosystem-Level Management Strategy Evaluation

  2014cited by this paper
• A mid-term analysis of progress toward international biodiversity targets

  2014cited by this paper
• Detecting Extinction Risk from Climate Change by IUCN Red List Criteria

  2014cited by this paper
• Using ecological thresholds to evaluate the costs and benefits of set-asides in a biodiversity hotspot

  2014cited by this paper
• Accounting for conservation: Using the IUCN Red List Index to evaluate the impact of a conservation organization

  2014cited by this paper
• A framework to identify enabling and urgent actions for the 2020 Aichi Targets

  2014cited by this paper
• Practical solutions for making models indispensable in conservation decision‐making

  2013cited by this paper
• Structuring Decisions for Managing Threatened and Endangered Species in a Changing Climate

  2013cited by this paper
• Signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch

  2013cited by this paper
• Status and Solutions for the World’s Unassessed Fisheries

  2012cited by this paper
• Protecting Important Sites for Biodiversity Contributes to Meeting Global Conservation Targets

  2012cited by this paper
• Making Robust Policy Decisions Using Global Biodiversity Indicators

  2012cited by this paper
• The effectiveness and evaluation of conservation planning

  2012cited by this paper
• Financial Costs of Meeting Global Biodiversity Conservation Targets: Current Spending and Unmet Needs

  2012cited by this paper
• Dispersal connectivity and reserve selection for marine conservation

  2011cited by this paper
• Management strategy evaluation: a powerful tool for conservation?

  2011cited by this paper
• Restoration of ecosystem services and biodiversity: conflicts and opportunities.

  2011cited by this paper
• Human behaviour: the key source of uncertainty in fisheries management

  2011cited by this paper
• Extracting More Value from Biodiversity Change Observations through Integrated Modeling

  2011cited by this paper
• The Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Science-Policy Interface

  2011cited by this paper
• Ecological-economic optimization of biodiversity conservation under climate change

  2011cited by this paper
• Ecosystem services, targets, and indicators for the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity

  2011cited by this paper
• Effectiveness of Strict vs. Multiple Use Protected Areas in Reducing Tropical Forest Fires: A Global Analysis Using Matching Methods

  2011cited by this paper
• Protected areas reduced poverty in Costa Rica and Thailand

  2010cited by this paper
• Scenarios for Global Biodiversity in the 21st Century

  2010cited by this paper
• The Barometer of Life

  2010cited by this paper
• Reassessing the forest impacts of protection

  2010cited by this paper
• The Capacity of Australia's Protected‐Area System to Represent Threatened Species

  2010cited by this paper
• Relating marine ecosystem indicators to fishing and environmental drivers: an elucidation of contrasting responses

  2010cited by this paper
• The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment

  2010cited by this paper
• Replacing underperforming protected areas achieves better conservation outcomes

  2010cited by this paper
• The trophic fingerprint of marine fisheries

  2010cited by this paper
• Thinking Inside the Box

  2010cited by this paper
• Ecosystem Services for 2020

  2010cited by this paper
• Role of Brazilian Amazon protected areas in climate change mitigation

  2010cited by this paper
• The Impact of Conservation on the Status of the World’s Vertebrates

  2010cited by this paper
• Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C

  2009cited by this paper
• Population viability management: ecological standards to guide adaptive management for rare species

  2009cited by this paper
• Qualitative modelling and indicators of exploited ecosystems

  2009cited by this paper
• Extinction debt: a challenge for biodiversity conservation.

  2009cited by this paper
• Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios

  2009cited by this paper
• Measuring the effectiveness of protected area networks in reducing deforestation

  2008cited by this paper
• Rates of Movement of Threatened Bird Species between IUCN Red List Categories and toward Extinction

  2008cited by this paper
• Optimal investment in conservation of species

  2008cited by this paper
• Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models

  2008cited by this paper
• Improvements to the Red List Index

  2007cited by this paper
• Designing Systematic Conservation Assessments that Promote Effective Implementation: Best Practice from South Africa

  2006cited by this paper
• Which ecological indicators can robustly detect effects of fishing

  2005cited by this paper
• Using Red List Indices to measure progress towards the 2010 target and beyond

  2005cited by this paper
• Protocols for listing threatened species can forecast extinction

  2004cited by this paper
• Ecosystem-Based Fishery Management

  2004cited by this paper
• Effectiveness of the global protected area network in representing species diversity

  2004cited by this paper
• Ecology. Ecosystem-based fishery management.

  2004cited by this paper
• Ecopath with Ecosim: methods, capabilities and limitations

  2004cited by this paper
• Global Gap Analysis: Priority Regions for Expanding the Global Protected-Area Network

  2004cited by this paper
• Scenario Planning: a Tool for Conservation in an Uncertain World

  2003cited by this paper
• Population models for marine reserve design: A retrospective and prospective synthesis

  2003cited by this paper
• POPULATION VIABILITY ANALYSIS IN ENDANGERED SPECIES RECOVERY PLANS: PAST USE AND FUTURE IMPROVEMENTS

  2002cited by this paper
• Reference Points for Fisheries Management

  1995cited by this paper
• Ad Hoc Reservations: Forward or Backward Steps in Developing Representative Reserve Systems?

  1994cited by this paper
• Assessing Extinction Threats: Toward a Reevaluation of IUCN Threatened Species Categories

  1991cited by this paper

• From assessment to action: informing water resource management in protected areas amid global change

  2026cites this paper
• Can we bend the curve: Trends in global biodiversity scenarios

  2026cites this paper
• Rethinking scenario building for sustainable futures: mobilizing conscientização, social learning and knowledge co-production

  2025influential citation
• A habitat‐based approach to reporting the direct impacts of an organization on biodiversity

  2025cites this paper
• We need better ways to re-evaluate conservation policies when they’re founded on flawed research

  2025cites this paper
• Farm revegetation has substantial potential to improve biodiversity outcomes.

  2025cites this paper
• Advancing causal inference in ecology: Pathways for biodiversity change detection and attribution

  2025cites this paper
• Projecting Uncertainty in Ecosystem Persistence Under Climate Change

  2025cites this paper
• Hard‐To‐Sample Species Are More Sensitive to Land‐Use Change: Implications for Global Biodiversity Metrics

  2025cites this paper
• Predicting the way forward for the Global Biodiversity Framework

  2025cites this paper
• Stormy Skies and Feathered Lives: Synthesizing the Effects of Adverse Meteorological Events on Avian Physiology, Behavior, and Ecology

  2024cites this paper
• Measuring metrics: what diversity indicators are most appropriate for different forms of data bias?

  2024cites this paper
• The war in Ukraine is changing plausible future socioeconomic scenarios leading to an unexplored outlook for biodiversity

  2024cites this paper
• Scenario design for infectious disease projections: Integrating concepts from decision analysis and experimental design

  2024cites this paper
• Biodiversity responses to agricultural practices in cropland and natural habitats.

  2024cites this paper
• Participatory and Spatially Explicit Assessment to Envision the Future of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change Scenarios on Selected Ecosystem Services in Southwestern Ghana

  2024cites this paper
• Modelling Species Distributions with Deep Learning to Predict Plant Extinction Risk and Assess Climate Change Impacts

  2024cites this paper
• Integrating aquatic species, assemblage, and habitat climate change vulnerabilities into a watershed-scale decision support framework

  2024cites this paper
• Ongoing over-exploitation and delayed responses to environmental change highlight the urgency for action to promote vertebrate recoveries by 2030

  2023cites this paper
• Scenario Design for Infectious Disease Projections: Integrating Concepts from Decision Analysis and Experimental Design

  2023cites this paper
• Operationalizing the Nature Futures Framework for ecological infrastructure

  2023cites this paper
• Structured decision making to navigate trade‐offs between multiple conservation values in threatened grasslands

  2023cites this paper
• First assessment on the influence of wind farms and high-voltage networks on ruddy-headed goose Chloephaga rubidiceps migration in Patagonia, Argentina

  2023cites this paper
• Making protected areas effective for biodiversity, climate and food

  2023cites this paper
• Ambitious global targets for mangrove and seagrass recovery.

  2022cites this paper
• A lidar-based openness index to aid conservation planning for grassland wildlife

  2022cites this paper
• Estimating Future Migration Flows Under Social and Environmental Scenarios Taking Into Account Interactions: Insights From a Survey Among Migration Scholars

  2022cites this paper
• Increased exposure of Colombian birds to rapidly expanding human footprint

  2022cites this paper
• Considering counterfactual scenarios in conservation planning: Perspectives from a biodiverse mining area in the Atlantic Forest

  2022influential citation
• Stressing over the Complexities of Multiple Stressors in Marine and Estuarine Systems

  2022cites this paper
• Serengeti’s futures: Exploring land use and land cover change scenarios to craft pathways for meeting conservation and development goals

  2022cites this paper
• Biodiversity data synthesis is critical for realizing a functional post-2020 framework

  2022cites this paper
• Mapping edaphic soils' conditions to identify conservation targets for pine barren and sandplain ecosystems in New York State

  2022cites this paper
• Effects of land use change on population survival of three wild rice species in China since 2001

  2022cites this paper
• The dynamics of mature and emerging freshwater conservation programs

  2022cites this paper
• Spatiotemporally explicit prediction of future ecosystem service provisioning in response to climate change, sea level rise, and adaptation strategies

  2022cites this paper
• Carbon ecosystem services and cellulose income from natural and commercial forests in the Brazilian savanna

  2021cites this paper
• Integrating stakeholders’ perspectives and spatial modelling to develop scenarios of future land use and land cover change in northern Tanzania

  2021cites this paper
• Measuring the intensity of conflicts in conservation

  2021cites this paper
• Opportunities for improving recognition of coastal wetlands in global ecosystem assessment frameworks

  2021cites this paper
• Disentangling ecosystem services perception by stakeholders: An integrative assessment based on land cover

  2021cites this paper
• Disparity between ecological and political timeframes for species conservation targets

  2021cites this paper
• Congruence between the prioritisation of conservation problems at the local and national scale: an evaluation by environmental scientists in Poland

  2021cites this paper
• Random population fluctuations bias the Living Planet Index

  2021cites this paper
• The mismeasure of conservation.

  2021cites this paper
• Scientific foundations for an ecosystem goal, milestones and indicators for the post-2020 global biodiversity framework

  2021cites this paper
• Fostering ocean empathy through future scenarios

  2021cites this paper
• Neutral theory reveals the challenge of bending the curve for the post‐2020 Global Biodiversity Framework

  2021cites this paper
• Existing approaches and future directions to link macroecology, macroevolution and conservation prioritization

  2021cites this paper
• Alternative pathways to a sustainable future lead to contrasting biodiversity responses

  2020cites this paper
• Predicting the ecological outcomes of global consumption

  2020cites this paper
• Challenges in producing policy-relevant global scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services

  2020cites this paper
• How can social–ecological system models simulate the emergence of social–ecological crises?

  2020influential citation
• Carbon sequestration scenarios in Portugal: which way to go forward?

  2020cites this paper
• Increasing capacity to produce scenarios and models for biodiversity and ecosystem services

  2020cites this paper
• A conceptual model to assess the impact of anthropogenic drivers on water-related ecosystem services in the Brazilian Cerrado

  2020cites this paper
• Three Key considerations for biodiversity conservation in multilateral agreements

  2020cites this paper
• Prioritizing where to restore Earth’s ecosystems

  2020cites this paper
• Ecological Risk Assessment Based on Land Cover Changes: A Case of Zanzibar (Tanzania)

  2020cites this paper
• Area-based conservation in the twenty-first century

  2020cites this paper
• Protecting Biodiversity (in All Its Complexity): New Models and Methods.

  2020cites this paper
• Tropical and Mediterranean biodiversity is disproportionately sensitive to land-use and 1 climate change 2 3

  2020cites this paper
• Tropical and Mediterranean biodiversity is disproportionately sensitive to land-use and climate change

  2020cites this paper
• Using decision science to evaluate global biodiversity indices

  2020cites this paper
• Matching biodiversity indicators to policy needs

  2020cites this paper
• Harnessing Big Data to Support the Conservation and Rehabilitation of Mangrove Forests Globally

  2020cites this paper
• The Aichi Biodiversity Targets: achievements for marine conservation and priorities beyond 2020

  2020cites this paper
• The wicked problem of biodiversity and ecosystem services in a changing world

  2020cites this paper
• Prioritize diversity or declining species? Trade-offs and synergies in spatial planning for the conservation of migratory birds in the face of land cover change

  2019cites this paper
• A concise guide to developing and using quantitative models in conservation management

  2019influential citation
• Effective design and use of indicators for marine conservation

  2019influential citation
• THE EFFECTIVENESS OF PROTECTED AREAS IN BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION: THE CASE OF TURKEY

  2019cites this paper
• Prioritize diversity or declining species? Trade-offs and synergies in spatial planning for the conservation of migratory birds in the face of land cover change

  2019cites this paper
• Management Guidelines in Disturbance-Prone Populations: the Importance of the Intervention Time.

  2019cites this paper
• Conservation palaeobiology and the shape of things to come

  2019cites this paper
• Improving links between environmental accounting and scenario‐based cumulative impact assessment for better‐informed biodiversity decisions

  2019cites this paper
• Capturing the big picture of Mediterranean marine biodiversity with an end-to-end model of climate and fishing impacts

  2019cites this paper
• Impacts du changement global sur la biodiversité en mer Méditerranée : une approche par modélisation End-to-End

  2019influential citation
• An End-to-End Model Reveals Losers and Winners in a Warming Mediterranean Sea

  2019cites this paper
• Climate and land-use change homogenise terrestrial biodiversity, with consequences for ecosystem functioning and human well-being.

  2019cites this paper
• Reply to ‘The biodiversity intactness index may underestimate losses’

  2019cites this paper
• Catching the big picture of the Mediterranean Sea biodiversity with an end-to-end model of climate and fishing impacts

  2019cites this paper
• Prioritize diversity or declining species? Trade-offs and synergies in spatial planning for the conservation of migratory birds

  2018cites this paper