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Impacts of thermal mismatches on chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis prevalence are moderated by life stage, body size, elevation and latitude

Jeremy M. Cohen,T. McMahon,Chloe T Ramsay,E. A. Roznik,Erin L. Sauer,S. Bessler,D. Civitello,Bryan K. Delius,Neal T Halstead,Sarah A. Knutie,K. Nguyen,Nicole Ortega,B. Sears,Matthew D. Venesky,S. Young,Jason Rohr

Published 2018 in bioRxiv

ABSTRACT

Global climate change is increasing the frequency of unpredictable weather conditions; however, it remains unclear how species-level and geographic factors, including body size and latitude, moderate impacts of unusually warm or cool temperatures on disease. Because larger hosts and lower-latitude hosts generally have slower acclimation times, we hypothesized that their disease susceptibility increases under “thermal mismatches”, or differences between baseline climate and the temperature during surveying. Here, we examined how thermal mismatches interact with body size, life stage, habitat, latitude, elevation, phylogeny, and IUCN conservation status to predict infection prevalence of the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) in a global analysis of 38,967 amphibian hosts. As hypothesized, we found that the susceptibility of larger hosts and hosts from lower latitudes was strongly influenced by thermal mismatches. Furthermore, hosts of conservation concern are more susceptible than others following thermal mismatches, suggesting that thermal mismatches might have contributed to recent amphibian declines. Data Accessibility Statement Should the manuscript be accepted, the data supporting the results will be archived in an appropriate public repository such as Dryad or Figshare and the data DOI will be included at the end of the article.

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