The Information Content of Survey Data on Expected Price Developments for Monetary Policy

The present paper uses survey data on expected consumer price developments to analyse the role of inflation expectations in the inflation process. The survey measures of price expectations are derived from the European Commission's Consumer Survey and from the surveys of professional experts conducted by the London-based institute Consensus Economics. The estimates of the New Keynesian inflation model presented here underscore the importance of inflation expectations for the short to medium-run development of consumer prices in Germany, France and Italy. Furthermore, the analysis of the process of expectations formation indicates that the expectations of the households and experts surveyed are strongly guided by earlier forecasts and past price developments. The resultant "stickiness" of the inflation process heightens the need for monetary policy makers to adopt a forwardlooking approach.

• Publication year

  2001

• Venue

  Social Science Research Network

• Publication date

  Unknown publication date

• Fields of study

  Economics

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.2139/ssrn.2785125
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

• Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies

  2003cited by this paper
• Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area: Introduction

  2003cited by this paper
• Consumers' inflation expectations and monetary policy in Europe

  2002cited by this paper
• Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters

  2002cited by this paper
• Relative Wage Concern and the Keynesian Contract Multiplier

  2001cited by this paper
• How Well Does the New Keynesian Sticky-Price Model Fit the Data?

  2001cited by this paper
• Trend und Zyklus im Bruttoinlandsprodukt der Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Eine Anmerkung / Trends and Cycles in Germany’s Real Gross Domestic Product. A Note

  2001cited by this paper
• Relative Wage Concern and the Keynesian Contract Multiplier

  2001cited by this paper
• The Inexorable and Mysterious Trade-off Between Inflation and Unemployment

  2001influential reference
• The Expectations Trap Hypothesis

  2000cited by this paper
• The Relationship between the Federal Funds Rate and the Fed's Federal Funds Rate Target: Is it Open Market or Open Mouth Operations?

  2000cited by this paper
• Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty

  2000cited by this paper
• WORKING PAPER NO . 24 WHAT HORIZON FOR PRICE STABILITY BY FRANK SMETS JULY 2000

  2000cited by this paper
• A. W. H. Phillips: Collected Works in Contemporary Perspective: The relation between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957

  2000cited by this paper
• How Safe Was the 'Safe Haven'? Financial Market Liquidity During the 1998 Turbulences

  2000cited by this paper
• Cyber Money as a Medium of Exchange

  1999cited by this paper
• Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule

  1999cited by this paper
• Survey Measures of Expected U.S. Inflation

  1999cited by this paper
• Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis

  1999cited by this paper
• Measuring inflation expectations: a survey data approach

  1999cited by this paper
• Inflationary expectations and rationality revisited

  1999cited by this paper
• Exchange rates, monetary policy regimes, and beliefs

  1999cited by this paper
• Nominal Income Targeting in an Open-Economy Optimizing Model

  1999cited by this paper
• The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective

  1999cited by this paper
• The Use of Financial Market Indicators by Monetary Authorities

  1999cited by this paper
• Trend und Zyklus im Bruttoinlandsprodukt der Bundesrepublik Deutschland / Trends and Cycles in the Gross Domestic Product of the Federal Republic of Germany

  1998cited by this paper
• Staggered Price and Wage Setting in Macroeconomics

  1998cited by this paper
• Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy

  1998cited by this paper
• Inflation Expectations and the Transmission of Monetary Policy

  1998cited by this paper
• Trend und Zyklus im Bruttoinlandsprodukt der

  1998cited by this paper
• Performance of operational policy rules in an estimated semi-classical structural model

  1998cited by this paper
• Interest-Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model

  1998cited by this paper
• The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy

  1997cited by this paper
• Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy

  1997cited by this paper
• Is inflation sticky

  1997cited by this paper
• ARE MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS INFORMATIVE? COINTEGRATION EVIDENCE FROM THE ASA-NBER SURVEYS

  1997cited by this paper
• Testing the rationality of the National Bank of New Zealand's survey data

  1997influential reference
• Inflation and Output in Germany: The Role of Inflation Expectations

  1997influential reference
• The [un]importance of forward-looking behavior in price specifications

  1997cited by this paper
• New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve

  1995cited by this paper
• Macroeconomics Forecasts and Microeconomic Forecasters

  1995influential reference
• THE ROLE OF MONETARY POLICY

  1995cited by this paper
• Estimation and inference in econometrics

  1994cited by this paper
• What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio

  1993cited by this paper
• The near optimality of adaptive expectations

  1993influential reference
• Inflationary expectations and rationality

  1992cited by this paper
• A Comparative Study of Alternative Methods of Quantifying Qualitative Survey Responses Using NAPM Data

  1992cited by this paper
• Understanding the recent behavior of M2

  1991cited by this paper
• The Genesis of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation

  1991cited by this paper
• Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data

  1990cited by this paper
• On Testing for Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Forecasts

  1990cited by this paper
• Consumer Price Perceptions and Expectations

  1990cited by this paper
• Testing the Rationality of Inflation Forecasts from Survey Data: Another Look at the SRC Expected Price Change Data

  1989cited by this paper
• Changing Beliefs and Systematic Rational Forecast Errors with Evidence from Foreign Exchange

  1989cited by this paper
• Limited Rationality and Strategic Complements: The Implications for Macroeconomics

  1989cited by this paper
• Household versus Economist Forecasts of Inflation: A Reassessment: Note

  1989cited by this paper
• The Limits to Rational Expectations

  1988influential reference
• Inflation Expectations Revisited

  1988cited by this paper
• Rational Models of Irrational Behavior

  1987cited by this paper
• Models of Inflation Expectations Formation: A Comparison of Household and Economist Forecasts: A Comment

  1986cited by this paper
• Can Small Deviations from Rationality Make Significant Differences to Economic Equilibria

  1985cited by this paper
• A Near-Rational Model of the Business Cycle

  1985cited by this paper
• Modeling the Formation of Price Expectations: A Bayesian Approach

  1985cited by this paper
• Expectations, Plans, and Realizations in Theory and Practice

  1983cited by this paper
• The Rational Expectations Revolution in Macroeconomics

  1983cited by this paper
• Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework

  1983cited by this paper
• Models of Inflation Expectations Formation: A Comparison of Household and Economist Forecasts

  1983cited by this paper
• Sticky Prices in the United States

  1982cited by this paper
• The Rational Expectations Revolution

  1982cited by this paper
• STAGGERED WAGE SETTING WITH REAL WAGE RELATIVITIES: VARIATIONS ON A THEME OF TAYLOR*

  1981cited by this paper
• Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis

  1980cited by this paper
• Output and price stability: An international comparison

  1980cited by this paper
• Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model

  1979cited by this paper
• The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes: The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money

  1978influential reference
• Rational Expectations and the Estimation of Econometric Models: AnAlternative Procedure

  1976cited by this paper
• An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle

  1975cited by this paper
• Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs.

  1973cited by this paper
• Rational Expectations, the Real Rate of Interest, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment

  1973cited by this paper
• Phillips Curves, Expectations of In#ation and Optimal Unem-ployment over Time

  1967cited by this paper
• Some Econometrics of Price Determination

  1965cited by this paper
• Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements

  1961cited by this paper
• Linear Aggregation of Economic Relations.

  1955cited by this paper
• The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money

  1936influential reference
• The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money.

  1936cited by this paper
• Working Papers Working Papers Working Papers Working Papers

  year unknowncited by this paper
• Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States

  year unknowncited by this paper

• The asymmetric impact of fuel and oil prices on inflation and inflation expectations in emerging economies

  2025cites this paper
• Consumer and Professional Inflation Expectations – Properties and Mutual Dependencies

  2024cites this paper
• Central Bank Communication and Financial and Macro Variables: The Case of European Inflation Targeters

  2024cites this paper
• Central bank communication and expectations: Evidence for inflation‐targeting economies

  2024cites this paper
• Impact of uncertainty on inflation forecast errors in Central and Eastern European countries

  2023cites this paper
• When all we have is not enough: a search for the optimal method of quantifying inflation expectations

  2022cites this paper
• New DTW Windows Type for Forward- and Backward-Lookingness Examination. Application for Inflation Expectation

  2021cites this paper
• New DTW Windows Type for Forward- and Backward-Lookingness Examination. Application for Inflation Expectation

  2021cites this paper
• Inflation expectations after financial crisis: are consumers more forward-looking?

  2020influential citation
• Does fiscal stance affect inflation expectations? Evidence for European economies

  2020cites this paper
• Long-run inflation expectations in the ECB survey of professional forecasters: what do the survey responses tell us?

  2020cites this paper
• Consumers’ approach to the credibility of the inflation forecasts published by central banks: A new methodological solution

  2019cites this paper
• Some properties of inflation expectations in the euro area

  2019cites this paper
• The Impact of Inflation Anchor Strength and Monetary Policy Transparency on Inflation During the Period of Emerging Market Volatility in Summer 2018

  2019cites this paper
• Forward-looking component in consumers’ expectations and inflation forecast targeting:the case of six European economies

  2019cites this paper
• ARE CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AN INTERNATIONAL PHENOMENON? Results of spatial panel regressions models

  2018cites this paper
• On the formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times: The case of the euro area

  2018cites this paper
• Formation of Inflation Expectations in Turbulent Times: Can ECB Manage Inflation Expectations of Professional Forecasters?

  2017cites this paper
• Formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times. Recent evidence from the European Survey of Professional Forecasters

  2017cites this paper
• Internal or external devaluation? What does the EC Consumer Survey tell us about macroeconomic adjustment in the Euro area?

  2016cites this paper
• The impact of financial crisis and low inflation environment on short-term inflation expectations in Poland

  2016cites this paper
• Survey measures of inflation expectations in Poland: are they relevant from the macroeconomic perspective?

  2016cites this paper
• Analiza głównych cech oczekiwań inflacyjnych konsumentów indywidualnych w Polsce w latach 2004–2014

  2015cites this paper
• Analiza głównych cech oczekiwań inflacyjnych konsumentów indywidualnych w Polsce w latach 2004-2014

  2015cites this paper
• La formación de expectativas de inflación en Colombia

  2015influential citation
• Non)rationality of consumer inflation perceptions

  2015cites this paper
• Inflation expectations in Poland, 2001–2013. Measurement and macroeconomic testing

  2014cites this paper
• Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

  2014cites this paper
• Do Consumers in Europe Anticipate Future Inflation?

  2014cites this paper
• Formation of Inflation Expectations by Different Economic Agents

  2013cites this paper
• on Limited-Information Tests of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

  2013cites this paper
• The interdependences of central bank’s forecasts and inflation expectations of consumers

  2013cites this paper
• Committee on Central Bank Statistics IFC Working Papers No 10 Consumer Inflation Expectations in Turkey

  2013cites this paper
• Theory of rational expectations hypothesis: banks and other financial institutions in Malaysia

  2012cites this paper
• How Rational Are Rational Expectations? New Evidence from Well Known Survey Data

  2012cites this paper
• 120815-Beyond Rationality-NBP FCM v6

  2012cites this paper
• Three Essays on Nonlinear Time-series Econometrics

  2011cites this paper
• INFLATION PERCEPTIONS AND ANTICIPATIONS IN THE OLD EUROZONE MEMBER STATES

  2011cites this paper
• Money Illusion and Rational Expectations: New Evidence from Well Known Survey Data

  2010cites this paper
• Inflation (mis)perceptions in the euro area

  2010cites this paper
• Formation and dispersion of expectations : an empirical analysis with special focus on inflation

  2009influential citation
• SURVEY EVIDENCE ON THE MUTHIAN RATIONALITY OF THE INFLATION FORECASTS OF US CONSUMERS

  2009cites this paper
• Heterogeneous Expectations , Learning and European In ation Dynamics

  2009cites this paper
• Inflation Expectations of Experts and ECB Communication

  2008cites this paper
• The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations

  2008cites this paper
• Inflation Expectations and Inflation Uncertainty in the Eurozone: Evidence from Survey Data

  2008influential citation
• Optimal monetary policy in the Euro area in the presence of heterogeneity

  2008cites this paper
• Measuring the Long-Term Perception of Monetary Policy and the Term Structure

  2007cites this paper
• No . 07-054 Inflation Expectations of Experts and ECB Communication

  2007cites this paper
• Working Paper OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY IN THE EURO AREA IN THE PRESENCE OF HETEROGENEITY No . 62 November 2007

  2007cites this paper
• Heterogeneous Expectations, Learning and European Inflation Dynamics

  2007cites this paper
• The anchoring of European inflation expectations

  2006cites this paper
• Finding the Optimal Method of Quantifying Inflation Expectations on the Basis of Qualitative Survey Data

  2006influential citation
• The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectation

  2006cites this paper
• Which Price Index for Eurozone Index-linked Bonds?

  2006influential citation
• The Impact of EMU on Inflation Expectations

  2006cites this paper
• European Inflation Expectations Dynamics

  2005cites this paper
• Monetary policy regimes with hybrid output gaps and inflation rates with an application to EU-accession countries

  2005cites this paper
• Inflation Expectations: Theoretical Models and Empirical Tests

  2005cites this paper
• Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation

  2003cites this paper
• An Introduction to the Ecb's Survey of Professional Forecasters

  2003cites this paper
• Monetary policy regimes in the New Keynesian framework : Results for Accession Countries

  2003cites this paper
• The Rationality of Consumers' Inflation Expectations: Survey-Based Evidence for the Euro Area

  2002cites this paper