Estimating the impact of expanded access to antiretroviral therapy on maternal, paternal and double orphans in sub-Saharan Africa, 2009-2020

BackgroundHIV/AIDS has orphaned 11.6 million children in sub-Saharan Africa. Expanded antiretroviral therapy (ART) use may reduce AIDS orphanhood by decreasing adult mortality and population-level HIV transmission.MethodsWe modeled two scenarios to measure the impact of adult ART use on the incidence of orphanhood in 10 sub-Saharan African countries, from 2009 to 2020. Demographic model data inputs were obtained from cohort studies, UNAIDS, UN Population Division, WHO and the US Census Bureau.ResultsCompared to current rates of ART uptake, universal ART access averted 4.37 million more AIDS orphans by year 2020, including 3.15 million maternal, 1.89 million paternal and 0.75 million double orphans. The number of AIDS orphans averted was highest in South Africa (901.71 thousand) and Nigeria (839.01 thousand), and lowest in Zimbabwe (86.96 thousand) and Côte d'Ivoire (109.12 thousand).ConclusionUniversal ART use may significantly reduce orphanhood in sub-Saharan Africa.

• Publication year

  2011

• Venue

  AIDS Research and Therapy

• Publication date

  2011-03-07

• Fields of study

  Medicine

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1186/1742-6405-8-13PMID 21385370PMCID 3063201
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar, PubMed

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

• United States Agency for International Development

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