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Statistical evidence links exceptional 1995 Atlantic Hurricane season to record sea warming

M. Saunders,A. Harris

Published 1997 in Oceanographic Literature Review

ABSTRACT

Tropical cyclones rank above earthquakes as the major geophysical cause of loss of life and property (Bryant, 1991; Houghton, 1994). In the United States alone, the damage bill from mainland landfalling hurricanes over the last 50 years averages $2.0 billion per year (Hebert et al., 1996). Years with high numbers of hurricanes provide new insight on the environmental factors influencing interannual variability; hence the interest in the exceptional 1995 Atlantic season which saw 11 hurricanes and a total of 19 tropical storms, double the 50‐year average. While most environmental factors in 1995 were favourable for tropical cyclone development, we show that a factor not fully explored before, the sea surface temperature (SST) was the most significant. For the 10°–20°N, 20°–60°W region where 93% of the anomalous 1995 hurricanes developed, ∼45 year statistical regressions show that SST is the dominating influence, independent of all known other factors, behind the interannual variance in Atlantic hurricance numbers. With this SST experiencing record warm levels in 1995, 0.66°C above the 1946–1995 mean, these regressions indicate that sea warming explains 61±34% of the anomalous hurricane activity in 1995 to 95% confidence.

PUBLICATION RECORD

  • Publication year

    1997

  • Venue

    Oceanographic Literature Review

  • Publication date

    1997-05-15

  • Fields of study

    Environmental Science

  • Identifiers
    DOI 10.1029/97GL01164
  • External record

    Open on Semantic Scholar

  • Source metadata

    Semantic Scholar

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