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On the allegations that small risks are treated out of proportion to their importance

T. Aven

Published 2015 in Reliability Engineering & System Safety

ABSTRACT

Abstract Many authors argue that we suffer from a lack of ability to treat small risks; we either ignore them completely or give them too much emphasis. An example often referred to is terrorism risk, the reference being the number of fatalities observed due to terror compared to for example deaths in traffic accidents. The thesis is that the risk is over-estimated. However, these assertions, that the risks are over-estimated and we give them too much emphasis – they are treated out of proportion to their importance – cannot be justified in any scientifically meaningful way when there are large uncertainties about the consequences of the activity considered. Over-estimation is a value judgment, as is the phrase “far too much emphasis”. In the paper the author argues that the statements represent some serious misconceptions about risk. The purpose of the present paper is to point to these misconceptions and provide some guidance on how they can be rectified.

PUBLICATION RECORD

  • Publication year

    2015

  • Venue

    Reliability Engineering & System Safety

  • Publication date

    2015-08-01

  • Fields of study

    Philosophy, Computer Science, Engineering, Political Science

  • Identifiers
    DOI 10.1016/j.ress.2015.04.001
  • External record

    Open on Semantic Scholar

  • Source metadata

    Semantic Scholar

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