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Beyond getting the numbers right: what does it mean to be a “successful” Bayesian reasoner?

G. Vallée-Tourangeau,M. Sirota,Marie Juanchich,F. Vallée‐Tourangeau

Published 2015 in Frontiers in Psychology

ABSTRACT

Price (in Bayes, 1958) introduced Bayes's theorem as a precise and accurate method for measuring the strength of an inductive argument. He contrasted Bayesian reasoning with common sense, which, he argued, is imbued with vagueness and often erroneous. Nearly two centuries later, Price's claim was put to the test by psychologists who examined how people revise their opinions in light of new evidence (e.g., Phillips and Edwards, 1966; Kahneman and Tversky, 1973). For the past four decades, scholars have debated whether common sense can or cannot approximate Bayesian reasoning.

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