{"corpus_id":157120140,"paper_sha":"ede770543b81e9e4974630816b05d5f3f694b73b","doi":"10.25336/P6FP4F","arxiv_id":null,"pmid":null,"pmcid":null,"mag_id":2572188385,"dblp_id":null,"acl_id":null,"title":"Using the probabilistic fertility table to test the statistical significance of fertility trends","year":2016,"publication_date":"2016-12-20","venue":"","journal":{"name":"Canadian Studies in Population","pages":"203","volume":"43"},"journal_issn":null,"journal_title":null,"publication_types":[],"pubmed_pub_types":null,"s2_fields_of_study":[],"reference_count":0,"citation_count":1,"influential_citation_count":0,"is_open_access":true,"arxiv_categories":null,"arxiv_license":null,"arxiv_journal_ref":null,"mesh_headings":null,"chemicals":null,"comments_corrections":null,"source_flags":1,"s2_open_access_pdf_url":"https://journals.library.ualberta.ca/csp/index.php/csp/article/download/26990/21077","s2_open_access_landing_url":"https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/ede770543b81e9e4974630816b05d5f3f694b73b","s2_open_access_license":"CCBY","s2_open_access_status":"HYBRID","pmc_open_access_pdf_url":null,"pmc_open_access_landing_url":null,"pmc_open_access_license":null,"pmc_open_access_status":null,"unpaywall_open_access_pdf_url":null,"unpaywall_open_access_landing_url":null,"unpaywall_open_access_license":null,"unpaywall_open_access_status":null,"abstract":"At below replacement level, fertility changes are subtle and complex; distinguishing statistically significant trends from random shifts is becoming a relevant issue. The probabilistic fertility table describes the uncertainty of the childbearing process, and provides a significance test for the annual changes of various fertility measures, which is essential for distinguishing a statistically significant change from a random fluctuation. This paper provides an analytical model for the total fertility of the probabilistic fertility table, and extends the significance test to period trends that include multiple annual changes. The extended significance test indicates that complex annual changes could accumulate to become a significant trend. Applying the analytical model and extended test to the total fertility of Canada, it indicates that the 2002–11 increase trend is statistically significant and, therefore, supports project future increases of total fertility. En-dessous du seuil de remplacement des generations, les changements a la fertilite sont subtils et complexes. Aussi, il est devenu pertinent de pouvoir distinguer les tendances significatives au plan statistique des ecarts aleatoires. Le tableau probabiliste de fertilite decrit l’incertitude liee au processus de reproduction et fournit un critere de signification des changements annuels dans les diverses mesures de fertilite, element essentiel pour distinguer un changement important au plan statistique des fluctuations aleatoires. Cet article fournit un modele analytique pour l’ensemble du tableau probabiliste de fertilite et elargit la portee de cette mesure aux tendances dans le temps incluant les multiples changements annuels. Ce critere elargi indique que les changements complexes annuels peuvent representer une tendance significative. En appliquant le modele analytique et le critere au tableau de fertilite du Canada, on constate que la tendance a la hausse de 2002–11 est importante au plan statistique et, par consequent, augure des hausses futures dans la fertilite totale.","claims":[{"public_id":"cl_a450f6cfebf97dd5f2c908c0c97b1fc0","status":"active","text":"Applying the analytical model and extended test to total fertility of Canada shows that the 2002–11 increase trend is statistically significant.","confidence":0.9,"contributors":[{"id":32,"public_id":"7c402c1b98","public_label":"뀨 (7c402c1b98)","roles":["extraction"],"url":"https://sah.borca.ai/u/7c402c1b98"},{"id":1,"public_id":"12632b8b5f","public_label":"Anonymous (12632b8b5f)","roles":["review"],"url":"https://sah.borca.ai/u/12632b8b5f"},{"id":35,"public_id":"b2adb6bfad","public_label":"Anonymous (b2adb6bfad)","roles":["review"],"url":"https://sah.borca.ai/u/b2adb6bfad"},{"id":17,"public_id":"322360f1c1","public_label":"Killer Whale 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