{"corpus_id":221179212,"paper_sha":"3704c3152a0c8e1e619599b60aa9f23e8a1be6ef","doi":"10.1038/s41586-020-2616-y","arxiv_id":null,"pmid":32814903,"pmcid":null,"mag_id":3072837421,"dblp_id":null,"acl_id":null,"title":"The future of food from the sea","year":2019,"publication_date":"2019-11-19","venue":"Nature","journal":{"name":"Nature","pages":"95 - 100","volume":"588"},"journal_issn":null,"journal_title":null,"publication_types":["CaseReport","JournalArticle"],"pubmed_pub_types":["Journal Article","Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't"],"s2_fields_of_study":["Agricultural and Food Sciences","Medicine","Business","Environmental Science"],"reference_count":262,"citation_count":724,"influential_citation_count":20,"is_open_access":true,"arxiv_categories":null,"arxiv_license":null,"arxiv_journal_ref":null,"mesh_headings":[{"d":"Animals","mj":false,"ui":"D000818"},{"d":"Aquatic Organisms","mj":false,"qs":[{"q":"growth & development","mj":false,"ui":"Q000254"}],"ui":"D059001"},{"d":"Fisheries","mj":false,"qs":[{"q":"economics","mj":false,"ui":"Q000191"},{"q":"supply & distribution","mj":true,"ui":"Q000600"}],"ui":"D005398"},{"d":"Fishes","mj":false,"qs":[{"q":"growth & development","mj":false,"ui":"Q000254"}],"ui":"D005399"},{"d":"Food Supply","mj":false,"qs":[{"q":"economics","mj":false,"ui":"Q000191"},{"q":"statistics & numerical data","mj":true,"ui":"Q000706"}],"ui":"D005523"},{"d":"Humans","mj":false,"ui":"D006801"},{"d":"Mollusca","mj":false,"qs":[{"q":"growth & development","mj":false,"ui":"Q000254"}],"ui":"D008974"},{"d":"Oceans and Seas","mj":true,"ui":"D009792"},{"d":"Seafood","mj":false,"qs":[{"q":"economics","mj":false,"ui":"Q000191"},{"q":"supply & distribution","mj":true,"ui":"Q000600"}],"ui":"D017747"},{"d":"Sustainable Development","mj":false,"qs":[{"q":"economics","mj":false,"ui":"Q000191"},{"q":"trends","mj":true,"ui":"Q000639"}],"ui":"D000076502"},{"d":"Time Factors","mj":false,"ui":"D013997"}],"chemicals":null,"comments_corrections":null,"source_flags":5,"s2_open_access_pdf_url":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2616-y.pdf","s2_open_access_landing_url":"https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/3704c3152a0c8e1e619599b60aa9f23e8a1be6ef","s2_open_access_license":null,"s2_open_access_status":"BRONZE","pmc_open_access_pdf_url":null,"pmc_open_access_landing_url":null,"pmc_open_access_license":null,"pmc_open_access_status":null,"unpaywall_open_access_pdf_url":null,"unpaywall_open_access_landing_url":null,"unpaywall_open_access_license":null,"unpaywall_open_access_status":null,"abstract":"Global food demand is rising, and serious questions remain about whether supply can increase sustainably1. Land-based expansion is possible but may exacerbate climate change and biodiversity loss, and compromise the delivery of other ecosystem services2–6. As food from the sea represents only 17% of the current production of edible meat, we ask how much food we can expect the ocean to sustainably produce by 2050. Here we examine the main food-producing sectors in the ocean—wild fisheries, finfish mariculture and bivalve mariculture—to estimate ‘sustainable supply curves’ that account for ecological, economic, regulatory and technological constraints. We overlay these supply curves with demand scenarios to estimate future seafood production. We find that under our estimated demand shifts and supply scenarios (which account for policy reform and technology improvements), edible food from the sea could increase by 21–44 million tonnes by 2050, a 36–74% increase compared to current yields. This represents 12–25% of the estimated increase in all meat needed to feed 9.8 billion people by 2050. Increases in all three sectors are likely, but are most pronounced for mariculture. Whether these production potentials are realized sustainably will depend on factors such as policy reforms, technological innovation and the extent of future shifts in demand. Modelled supply curves show that, with policy reform and technological innovation, the production of food from the sea may increase sustainably, perhaps supplying 25% of the increase in demand for meat products by 2050.","claims":[{"public_id":"cl_7ccddcc8262208538153df1698326679","status":"active","text":"Edible food from the sea could increase by 21–44 million tonnes by 2050, a 36–74% increase relative to current yields, under the modeled demand shifts and supply scenarios.","confidence":0.98,"contributors":[{"id":1,"public_id":"12632b8b5f","public_label":"Anonymous (12632b8b5f)","roles":["extraction"],"url":"https://sah.borca.ai/u/12632b8b5f"}],"url":"https://sah.borca.ai/claims/cl_7ccddcc8262208538153df1698326679"},{"public_id":"cl_60d051580ea12fe1576d0fa2dd1d7e31","status":"active","text":"Increases are expected across wild fisheries, finfish mariculture and bivalve mariculture, with the largest gains in mariculture.","confidence":0.95,"contributors":[{"id":1,"public_id":"12632b8b5f","public_label":"Anonymous (12632b8b5f)","roles":["extraction"],"url":"https://sah.borca.ai/u/12632b8b5f"}],"url":"https://sah.borca.ai/claims/cl_60d051580ea12fe1576d0fa2dd1d7e31"},{"public_id":"cl_5995f8f248c69641993afbc447336f0f","status":"active","text":"Realizing the production potential sustainably depends on policy reforms, technological innovation and future shifts in demand.","confidence":0.93,"contributors":[{"id":1,"public_id":"12632b8b5f","public_label":"Anonymous (12632b8b5f)","roles":["extraction"],"url":"https://sah.borca.ai/u/12632b8b5f"}],"url":"https://sah.borca.ai/claims/cl_5995f8f248c69641993afbc447336f0f"},{"public_id":"cl_02c47db5e1926b521dd86118393cba68","status":"active","text":"The projected increase from food from the sea would supply 12–25% of the estimated increase in all meat needed to feed 9.8 billion people by 2050.","confidence":0.96,"contributors":[{"id":1,"public_id":"12632b8b5f","public_label":"Anonymous (12632b8b5f)","roles":["extraction"],"url":"https://sah.borca.ai/u/12632b8b5f"}],"url":"https://sah.borca.ai/claims/cl_02c47db5e1926b521dd86118393cba68"},{"public_id":"cl_25e750d90e767198dedb535979c78c45","status":"active","text":"With policy reform and technological innovation, food from the sea may supply about 25% of the increase in demand for meat products by 2050.","confidence":0.9,"contributors":[{"id":1,"public_id":"12632b8b5f","public_label":"Anonymous (12632b8b5f)","roles":["extraction"],"url":"https://sah.borca.ai/u/12632b8b5f"}],"url":"https://sah.borca.ai/claims/cl_25e750d90e767198dedb535979c78c45"}],"concepts":[{"public_id":"co_08fbdef82046d56cc1bb168ce65d6ed7","status":"active","name":"sustainable supply curves","description":"Modeled curves that estimate how much output can be supplied while accounting for ecological, economic, regulatory and technological 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