In search of good probability assessors: an experimental comparison of elicitation rules for confidence judgments

No abstract is available for this paper.

• Publication year

  2015

• Venue

  Theory and Decision

• Publication date

  2015-07-10

• Fields of study

  Mathematics, Computer Science, Psychology

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1007/s11238-015-9509-9
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

• Belief Elicitation: A Horse Race Among Truth Serums

  2015cited by this paper
• Testing Ambiguity Models through the Measurement of Probabilities for Gains and Losses

  2015cited by this paper
• Confidence measurement in the light of signal detection theory

  2014cited by this paper
• Belief Elicitation in the Laboratory

  2014cited by this paper
• Estimating subjective probabilities

  2014cited by this paper
• The Binarized Scoring Rule

  2013cited by this paper
• Anatomical Coupling between Distinct Metacognitive Systems for Memory and Visual Perception

  2013cited by this paper
• Belief elicitation in the presence of naïve respondents: An experimental study

  2012cited by this paper
• The neural basis of metacognitive ability

  2012cited by this paper
• Metacognition: computation, biology and function

  2012cited by this paper
• Aggregating imprecise or conflicting beliefs: An experimental investigation using modern ambiguity theories

  2012cited by this paper
• Relating inter-individual differences in metacognitive performance on different perceptual tasks

  2011cited by this paper
• Ambiguity Attitudes and Portfolio Choice: Evidence from a Large Representative Survey

  2011cited by this paper
• Comonotonic proper scoring rules to measure ambiguity and subjective beliefs

  2010cited by this paper
• Theta-burst transcranial magnetic stimulation to the prefrontal cortex impairs metacognitive visual awareness

  2010cited by this paper
• Faculty Opinions recommendation of Relating introspective accuracy to individual differences in brain structure.

  2010cited by this paper
• Eliciting beliefs: Proper scoring rules, incentives, stakes and hedging

  2010cited by this paper
• A Truth Serum for Non-Bayesians: Correcting Proper Scoring Rules for Risk Attitudes

  2009cited by this paper
• A Mechanism for Eliciting Probabilities

  2009cited by this paper
• Betting on own knowledge: Experimental test of overconfidence

  2009cited by this paper
• A Truth Serum for Non-Bayesians: Correcting Proper Scoring Rules for Risk Attitudes*

  2009cited by this paper
• Overconfidence in Forecasts of Own Performance: An Experimental Study

  2009cited by this paper
• On Eliciting Beliefs in Strategic Games

  2009cited by this paper
• An update on Bayesian updating

  2009cited by this paper
• Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation

  2007cited by this paper
• Informational Rent, Publicly-Known Firm Type, and 'Closeness' in Relationship Finance

  2006influential reference
• Choice-Based Elicitation and Decomposition of Decision Weights for Gains and Losses Under Uncertainty

  2005cited by this paper
• Judgmental overconfidence, self-monitoring and trading performance in an experimental financial market

  2005cited by this paper
• Markets , Games , and Strategic Behavior : Recipes for Interactive Learning

  2004cited by this paper
• Type 2 tasks in the theory of signal detectability: Discrimination between correct and incorrect decisions

  2003cited by this paper
• An Experimental Study of Belief Learning Using Elicited Beliefs

  2002cited by this paper
• Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach

  1999cited by this paper
• The Early History of Probability Forecasts: Some Extensions and Clarifications

  1998cited by this paper
• The Psychophysics Toolbox.

  1997cited by this paper
• Confidence in judgment.

  1997cited by this paper
• The calibration and resolution of confidence in perceptual judgments

  1994cited by this paper
• Testing Bayes Rule and the Representativeness Heuristic: Some Experimental Evidence

  1992cited by this paper
• Separating probability elicitation from utilities

  1988cited by this paper
• Encoding subjective probabilities: A psychological and psychometric review

  1983cited by this paper
• External correspondence: Decompositions of the mean probability score

  1982cited by this paper
• Calibration of probabilities: the state of the art to 1980

  1982cited by this paper
• The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

  1982cited by this paper
• Fundamentals of decision analysis

  1981cited by this paper
• Decision analysis

  1977cited by this paper
• Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art

  1977cited by this paper
• Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?*1

  1977influential reference
• An Introduction to Bayesian Inference and Decision

  1974cited by this paper
• Scalar and Vector Partitions of the Probability Score: Part I. Two-State Situation

  1972cited by this paper
• Transformed up-down methods in psychoacoustics.

  1971cited by this paper
• “Good” Probability Assessors

  1968cited by this paper
• Signal detection theory and psychophysics

  1966cited by this paper
• Measuring utility by a single-response sequential method.

  1964cited by this paper
• Alternative Approaches to the Theory of Choice in Risk-Taking Situations

  1951cited by this paper
• VERIFICATION OF FORECASTS EXPRESSED IN TERMS OF PROBABILITY

  1950influential reference

• Deciding for others alters metacognition leading to responsibility aversion.

  2026cites this paper
• Majority views and confidence information promote informed decisions

  2026cites this paper
• Feedback and cooperation: An Experiment in sorting behavior

  2025cites this paper
• Confidence is predicted by pre- and post-choice decision signal dynamics

  2023cites this paper
• Neural and computational underpinnings of biased confidence in human reinforcement learning

  2023cites this paper
• Belief Elicitation When More Than Money Matters: Controlling for “Control”

  2022cites this paper
• Belief Elicitation When More Than Money Matters: Controlling for Control

  2022cites this paper
• How success breeds success

  2021cites this paper
• How economic success shapes redistribution: The role of self-serving beliefs, in-group bias and justice principles

  2021cites this paper
• Promoting financial literacy among the elderly: Consequences on confidence

  2021cites this paper
• A shared brain system forming confidence judgment across cognitive domains

  2021cites this paper
• Cognitive heterogeneity and complex belief elicitation

  2021cites this paper
• Estimating risk preferences integrating insurance choices with subjective beliefs

  2021cites this paper
• When guidance changes: Government stances and public beliefs

  2021cites this paper
• Confidence Snowballing and Relative Performance Feedback

  2021cites this paper
• Bribing the Self

  2020cites this paper
• The uniqueness of local proper scoring rules: the logarithmic family

  2020cites this paper
• Signaling probabilities in ambiguity: who reacts to vague news?

  2020cites this paper
• Robust valence-induced biases on motor response and confidence in human reinforcement learning

  2020cites this paper
• Resilience of perceptual metacognition in a dual-task paradigm

  2020cites this paper
• When Guidance Changes: Early Government Stances and Downstream Credibility*

  2020cites this paper
• Robust Pavlovian-to-Instrumental and Pavlovian-to-Metacognitive Transfers in human reinforcement learning

  2020cites this paper
• Feedback Spillover Effect on Competitiveness Across Unrelated Tasks

  2019cites this paper
• Belief Elicitation When More Than Money Matters

  2019cites this paper
• Decreased confidence in loss-avoidance contexts is a primary meta-cognitive bias of human reinforcement learning

  2019cites this paper
• Looking at the bright side: The motivational value of confidence

  2019cites this paper
• Incentives and gender in a multi-task setting: An experimental study with real-effort tasks

  2019cites this paper
• www.econstor.eu Biases in Beliefs: Experimental Evidence§

  2019cites this paper
• The uniqueness of local proper scoring rules: the logarithmic family

  2019cites this paper
• Anticipatory Anxiety and Wishful Thinking

  2019cites this paper
• Contextual influence on confidence judgments in human reinforcement learning

  2018cites this paper
• Experimental guidance for eliciting beliefs with the Stochastic Becker–DeGroot–Marschak mechanism

  2018cites this paper
• Experimental guidance for eliciting beliefs with the Stochastic Becker–DeGroot–Marschak mechanism

  2018cites this paper
• Utilizing Surrogate Numbers for Probability Elicitation

  2018cites this paper
• Abnormalities of confidence in psychiatry: an overview and future perspectives

  2018cites this paper
• Biases in Beliefs: Experimental Evidence

  2018cites this paper
• Looking at the Bright Side: The Motivation Value of Overconfidence

  2018cites this paper
• Belief formation in a signaling game without common prior: an experiment

  2017cites this paper
• Essays on behavioral economics of confidence, creativity and education

  2017cites this paper
• Confiance, métacognition et perception

  2017cites this paper
• Optimal Group Decision: A Matter of Confidence Calibration

  2017cites this paper
• Adapting to Change: The Role of Priors, Surprise and Brain Damage on Mental Model Updating

  2017cites this paper
• The impact of relative performance feedback on beliefs and preferences across dissimilar tasks

  2017cites this paper
• Confidence biases and learning among intuitive Bayesians

  2017cites this paper
• Aiming to choose correctly or to choose wisely? The optimality-accuracy trade-off in decisions under uncertainty

  2017cites this paper
• Two sides of the same coin: Monetary incentives concurrently improve and bias confidence judgments

  2017cites this paper
• Signaling Probabilities in Ambiguity: on the impact of vague news

  2017cites this paper
• Metacognition about the past and future: quantifying common and distinct influences on prospective and retrospective judgments of self-performance

  2016cites this paper
• Exploring the Role of Emotions in Decisions Involving Catastrophic Risks: Lessons from a Double Investigation

  2016cites this paper
• The Risk Attitudes of Professional Athletes: Optimism and Success Are Related

  2016cites this paper
• How do risk attitudes affect measured confidence?

  2016cites this paper
• Managing Self-Confidence: Theory and Experimental Evidence

  2011cites this paper