External correspondence: Decompositions of the mean probability score

No abstract is available for this paper.

• Publication year

  1982

• Venue

  Organizational Behavior and Human Performance

• Publication date

  1982-08-01

• Fields of study

  Mathematics

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1016/0030-5073(82)90237-9
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

• Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.

  1984cited by this paper
• Games against nature

  1983cited by this paper
• Physicians' use of probabilistic information in a real clinical setting.

  1981cited by this paper
• The availability explanation of excessive plausibility assessments

  1981cited by this paper
• Training for calibration.

  1980cited by this paper
• Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?*1

  1977cited by this paper
• Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art

  1977cited by this paper
• Reliability of Subjective Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature

  1977cited by this paper
• Characterization of Ambiguity in Decision Making.

  1976cited by this paper
• Probability with applications

  1976cited by this paper
• An Introduction to Bayesian Inference and Decision

  1974cited by this paper
• A New Vector Partition of the Probability Score

  1973cited by this paper
• Skill In Forecasting Daily Temperature and Precipitation: Some Experimental Results

  1973cited by this paper
• Scalar and Vector Partitions of the Probability Score: Part I. Two-State Situation

  1972cited by this paper
• An Introduction to Bayesian Inference and Decision

  1972cited by this paper
• Probabilistic forecasting: An experiment related to the stock market

  1972cited by this paper
• CLIMATOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF THE BRIER P-SCORE

  1970cited by this paper
• “Good” Probability Assessors

  1968cited by this paper
• On Subjective Probability Forecasting

  1963cited by this paper
• Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms: Comment

  1963cited by this paper
• Games And Decisions

  1958cited by this paper
• VERIFICATION OF FORECASTS EXPRESSED IN TERMS OF PROBABILITY

  1950cited by this paper
• A Philosophical Essay On Probabilities

  year unknowncited by this paper

• Application of Resolution Regression and Resolution Graphs in Evaluating Probability Forecasts Generated Using Binary Choice Models

  2026cites this paper
• Evaluation of performance measures in predictive artificial intelligence models to support medical decisions: overview and guidance.

  2025cites this paper
• On misconceptions about the Brier score in binary prediction models

  2025cites this paper
• Influencing Confidence: Testing Ways to Increase or Decrease Confidence in Knowledge

  2025cites this paper
• Improving the Prediction of 1-Year Right Ventricular Failure After Left Ventricular Assist Device Implantation

  2024cites this paper
• Stromal lymphocytes are associated with upgrade of B3 breast lesions

  2024cites this paper
• Calibration training for improving probabilistic judgments using an interactive app

  2023cites this paper
• Automated calibration training for forecasters

  2023cites this paper
• Evaluating Probabilistic Classifiers: The Triptych

  2023cites this paper
• Development of a model to predict the risk of early graft failure after adult-to-adult living donor liver transplantation: An ELTR study

  2023cites this paper
• A conditional decomposition of proper scores: quantifying the sources of information in a forecast

  2023cites this paper
• Forms of Overconfidence: Reconciling Divergent Levels with Consistent Individual Differences

  2023cites this paper
• The anti-money laundering risk assessment: A probabilistic approach

  2023cites this paper
• Rapid kidney function decline and increased risk of heart failure in patients with type 2 diabetes: findings from the ACCORD cohort

  2023cites this paper
• Evaluation of an open forecasting challenge to assess skill of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease prediction

  2023cites this paper
• Accuracy and Confidence of Strategic Intelligence in Cases of Inadequate Information: Implications for Acquisition of Collection Systems

  2023cites this paper
• Cognitive perspectives on maintaining physicians’ medical expertise: III. Strengths and weaknesses of self-assessment

  2023cites this paper
• Predicting binary outcomes based on the pair-copula construction

  2023influential citation
• Calibration of scientific reasoning ability

  2022cites this paper
• Preoperative Atrial Fibrillation and Cardiovascular Outcomes After Noncardiac Surgery.

  2022cites this paper
• Diagnosing early-onset neonatal sepsis in low-resource settings: development of a multivariable prediction model

  2022cites this paper
• Polygenic risk prediction models for colorectal cancer: a systematic review

  2022cites this paper
• Confidence, Self-Selection and Bias in the Aggregate

  2022cites this paper
• Circulating miR-184 is a potential predictive biomarker of cardiac damage in Anderson–Fabry disease

  2021cites this paper
• Sensitivity and specificity of tuberculosis signs and symptoms screening and adjunct role of social pathology characteristics in predicting bacteriologically confirmed tuberculosis in Myanmar

  2021cites this paper
• Outcome feedback reduces over-forecasting of inflation and overconfidence in forecasts

  2021cites this paper
• A hydrological model skill score and revised R-squared

  2021influential citation
• Assessing and improving classification rules

  2021cites this paper
• Analyzing Three-Dimensional Panel Data of Forecasts-Oxford Handbooks

  2021cites this paper
• Development of an ensemble machine learning prognostic model to predict 60-day risk of major adverse cardiac events in adults with chest pain

  2021cites this paper
• More on verification of probability forecasts for football outcomes: score decompositions, reliability, and discrimination analyses

  2021cites this paper
• Estimating System State through Similarity Analysis of Signal Patterns

  2020cites this paper
• Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting

  2020cites this paper
• Comparative Assessment of Predictive Performance of PRECISE-DAPT, CRUSADE, and ACUITY Scores in Risk Stratifying 30-Day Bleeding Events

  2020cites this paper
• CaliForest: calibrated random forest for health data

  2020cites this paper
• Dynamic overconfidence: a growth curve and cross lagged analysis of accuracy, confidence, overestimation and their relations

  2020cites this paper
• ROC curves for clinical prediction models part 1: ROC plots showed no added value above the AUC when evaluating the performance of clinical prediction models.

  2020cites this paper
• Score decompositions in forecast verification

  2020influential citation
• Development and Validation of the Chronic Disease Population Risk Tool (CDPoRT) to Predict Incidence of Adult Chronic Disease

  2020cites this paper
• Statistical methods for building better biomarkers of chronic kidney disease

  2019cites this paper
• Better beware: comparing metacognition for phishing and legitimate emails

  2019cites this paper
• Combining forecasts: Performance and coherence

  2019cites this paper
• On the Evaluation of Binary Event Probability Predictions in Electricity Price Forecasting

  2019cites this paper
• Measures for evaluation of prognostic improvement under multivariate normality for nested and nonnested models

  2019cites this paper
• Extension of Risk-Based Measure of Time-Varying Prognostic Discrimination for Survival Models

  2019cites this paper
• Measuring Data Uncertainty : An Application using the Bank of England’s “Fan Charts” for Historical GDP Growth

  2019cites this paper
• Risk Scores for Aortic Valve Interventions

  2019cites this paper
• Prévisions hydrologiques probabilistes dans un cadre multivarié : quels outils pour assurer fiabilité et cohérence spatio-temporelle ?

  2018cites this paper
• Weighted Brier score decompositions for topically heterogenous forecasting tournaments

  2018influential citation
• The current application of the Royston-Parmar model for prognostic modeling in health research: a scoping review

  2018cites this paper
• Value of incorporating newly identified risk factors into risk prediction for chemotherapy‐induced febrile neutropenia

  2018cites this paper
• The evolution of overconfidence : a growth curve modeling study of overestimation, accuracy and confidence

  2018cites this paper
• Maintaining vs. milking good reputation when customer feedback is inaccurate

  2018cites this paper
• Optimal Group Decision: A Matter of Confidence Calibration

  2017cites this paper
• Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition

  2017cites this paper
• BANKERS’ FORECASTS OF FARMLAND VALUES: A QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE EVALUATION

  2017cites this paper
• Predicting the risk of osteopenia for women aged 40-55 years.

  2017cites this paper
• Simpson's paradox in the integrated discrimination improvement

  2017cites this paper
• Forecasting Individual Headache Attacks Using Perceived Stress: Development of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Persons With Episodic Migraine

  2017cites this paper
• Sample Stratification in Verification of Ensemble Forecasts of Continuous Scalar Variables: Potential Benefits and Pitfalls

  2017cites this paper
• Discussion of “A risk‐based measure of time‐varying prognostic discrimination for survival models,” by C. Jason Liang and Patrick J. Heagerty

  2017cites this paper
• Judgmental Forecasting

  2017cites this paper
• Event rate net reclassification index and the integrated discrimination improvement for studying incremental value of risk markers

  2017cites this paper
• A risk‐based measure of time‐varying prognostic discrimination for survival models

  2017cites this paper
• Judgment Extremity and Accuracy Under Epistemic vs. Aleatory Uncertainty

  2017cites this paper
• Discrimination slope and integrated discrimination improvement – properties, relationships and impact of calibration

  2017influential citation
• WHO CAN PREDICT THEIR OWN DEMISE? HETEROGENEITY

  2017cites this paper
• Beyond discrimination: A comparison of calibration methods and clinical usefulness of predictive models of readmission risk

  2017influential citation
• Who can predict their own demise? Heterogeneity in the accuracy and value of longevity expectations☆

  2017cites this paper
• Confiance, métacognition et perception

  2017cites this paper
• Survive or Die ? An Empirical Study on Chinese Special Treatment ( ST ) Firms

  2017cites this paper
• Patterns and Prediction of Competing Causes of Mortality in Older Adults Diagnosed with Indolent Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma

  2017cites this paper
• The Market for English Premier League Odds12

  2017cites this paper
• Preventive risk assessment in forensic child and youth care

  2017cites this paper
• Climate as a Cause of Conflict: An Econometric Analysis

  2016cites this paper
• Overconfidence in Phishing Email Detection

  2016cites this paper
• A dynamic factor model of the yield curve components as a predictor of the economy

  2016cites this paper
• The market for English Premier League (EPL) odds

  2016cites this paper
• Prediction of coronary artery disease risk based on multiple longitudinal biomarkers

  2016cites this paper
• Overconfidence in personnel selection: When and why unstructured interview information can hurt hiring decisions

  2016cites this paper
• IDENTIFYING AND CORRECTING COGNITIVE BIASES IN SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY ELICITATION SURVEYS: MODEL BASED APPROACHES

  2016cites this paper
• Identifying Persons at Increased Risk of Cardiovascular Disease

  2016cites this paper
• Survival prediction of distressed firms: evidence from the Chinese special treatment firms

  2016cites this paper
• Preference, belief, and similarity :

  2016cites this paper
• A non-linear forecast combination procedure for binary outcomes

  2015cites this paper
• Dynamic forecasts of financial distress of Australian firms

  2015cites this paper
• The Aggregation of Expert Judgment: Do Good Things Come to Those Who Weight?

  2015cites this paper
• Experimental Tests of Risk Ladders in the Elicitation of Perceived Likelihood

  2015cites this paper
• In search of good probability assessors: an experimental comparison of elicitation rules for confidence judgments

  2015cites this paper
• Austin Biometrics and Biostatistics Refining Evaluation Methodology on TNM Stage System: Assessment on HPV-Related Oropharyngeal Cancer

  2015cites this paper
• Improving the analysis and modeling of substance use

  2015cites this paper
• Training for sociocultural forecasting : Current status and science and technology gaps 1

  2015cites this paper
• The development and validation of the Youth Actuarial Care Needs Assessment Tool for Non-Offenders (Y-ACNAT-NO)

  2015cites this paper
• Evaluating and Improving Probability Assessment in an Ambiguous, Sequential Environment

  2015cites this paper
• Quantifying the value of biomarkers for predicting mortality.

  2015cites this paper
• A Study on Resolution Skills in Phishing Detection

  2015cites this paper
• Item response models of probability judgments: Application to a geopolitical forecasting tournament.

  2015cites this paper
• Inflation tax in the lab : a theoretical and experimental study of competitive search equilibrium with inflation.

  2015cites this paper
• What to do with a forecast?

  2014cites this paper
• Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts with Bayesian Signal Detection Models

  2014cites this paper