Probabilistic forecasting: An experiment related to the stock market

No abstract is available for this paper.

• Publication year

  1972

• Venue

  Organizational Behavior and Human Performance

• Publication date

  1972-08-01

• Fields of study

  Business, Economics, Computer Science

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1016/0030-5073(72)90041-4
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

• An Experiment in Probabilistic Weather Forecasting

  1971cited by this paper
• Assessment and evaluation of subjective probability distributions

  1970cited by this paper
• “Good” Probability Assessors

  1968cited by this paper
• The Consensus of Subjective Probability Distributions

  1968cited by this paper
• The Quantification of Judgment: Some Methodological Suggestions

  1967cited by this paper
• The Assessment of Prior Distributions in Bayesian Analysis

  1967cited by this paper
• Admissible probability measurement procedures

  1966cited by this paper

• Economía conductual y economía cuántica: perspectivas alternativas sobre las crisis económicas y financieras

  2025cites this paper
• Formal Inconsistencies of Expertise Aggregation Techniques Commonly Employed in Engineering Teams

  2024cites this paper
• Are experts overconfident?: An interdisciplinary review

  2023cites this paper
• An alternative approach to quadratic scoring rules using continuous-valued logic

  2022cites this paper
• Evaluation of the Future Price of Brazilian Commodities as a Predictor of the Price of the Spot Market

  2022cites this paper
• Explaining the ambiguous impact of overconfidence on corporate decision-making: a critique of the research methodology

  2022cites this paper
• Evidence from Sri Lanka

  2021cites this paper
• Irrational Behaviour and Stock Investment Decision. Does Gender Matter?

  2021cites this paper
• Overconfidence and financial decision-making: a meta-analysis

  2021cites this paper
• The Accrual Anomaly: Accrual Originations, Accrual Reversals, and Resolution of Uncertainty *

  2020cites this paper
• Additive Scoring Rules for Discrete Sample Spaces

  2020cites this paper
• Machine Learning for Factor Investing

  2020cites this paper
• Overconfidence Test in Cryptocurrencies Markets Using VAR Analysis

  2019cites this paper
• Economic and Institutional Applications

  2019cites this paper
• Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports Confidence Cycles

  2018cites this paper
• Measurement error in residential property valuation: An application of forecast combination

  2018cites this paper
• Overconfidence Among Beginners: Is a Little Learning a Dangerous Thing?

  2018cites this paper
• subjective probability forecasting experiments in some preliminary results'

  2018cites this paper
• Judgmental Forecasting

  2017cites this paper
• Do Analysts Anchor Their Recommendation Revisions to Valuation Multiples

  2017cites this paper
• Self-confidence, Gender, Knowledge and Experience Impact on the Investment Effectiveness on Capital Market

  2017cites this paper
• Arguments from Expert Opinion and Persistent Bias

  2017cites this paper
• WE EXPECT STOCKS TO RISE, BUT WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN AND WHICH ONES: EXCESSIVE OPTIMISM IN PREDICTING FUTURE STOCK INDICES RETURNS

  2017influential citation
• An Overview of Applications of Proper Scoring Rules

  2016cites this paper
• Les déterminants de la décision d'achat des investisseurs individuels : l'exemple français

  2016cites this paper
• Overconfidence and Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets

  2016cites this paper
• Win at All Costs or Lose Gracefully in High-Stakes Competition? Gender Differences in Professional Tennis

  2016cites this paper
• Sitting on the Board or Sitting on the Throne? Evidence of Boards' Overconfidence from the Italian Market

  2016cites this paper
• Preference, belief, and similarity :

  2016cites this paper
• Gender Differences in Performance Predictions: Evidence from the Cognitive Reflection Test

  2016cites this paper
• Anxiety, Overconfidence, and Excessive Risk Taking

  2015cites this paper
• Anxiety and pro-cyclical risk taking with Bayesian agents

  2015cites this paper
• LENDING BEHAVIORS OF BANKS UNDER UNCERTAINTY

  2015cites this paper
• Investment portfolio elaboration with a behavioral finance approach: A critical review

  2015cites this paper
• Expertise and institutional design in economic committees

  2015cites this paper
• Lending behaviors of banks under uncertainty

  2015cites this paper
• Uncertainty analysis, modelling and prognosis for power system operation and planning

  2015cites this paper
• An Experimental Study of Overconfidence in Accounting Numbers Predictions

  2014cites this paper
• Measuring and adjusting for overconfidence

  2014cites this paper
• Seeking Consensus in the Social Sciences

  2014cites this paper
• The role of experts in the methodology of economics

  2014cites this paper
• A mechanism design approach to bandwidth allocation in tactical data networks

  2013cites this paper
• Carlo Martini Applying Formal Social Epistemology to the Real World Comment on

  2013cites this paper
• OP-QJEC130023 1547..1584

  2013influential citation
• Badanie nadmiernej pewności siebie oraz preferencji ryzyka wśród profesjonalnych i nieprofesjonalnych uczestników rynku wraz z próbą wskazania powiązań badanych fenomenów.

  2013cites this paper
• Measuring and adjusting for overconfidence

  2013cites this paper
• A Rationale for Hiring Irrationally Overconfident Managers

  2013cites this paper
• Effects of trend strength and direction on performance and consistency in judgmental exchange rate forecasting

  2013cites this paper
• An incentive compatible scoring rule for ordinal judgments of expected utility maximizers

  2013cites this paper
• Die Einschätzung der Differenz von Wissen und Nichtwissen bei Unternehmensberatern — Ergebnisse eines universellen Strukturgleichungsmodells

  2012cites this paper
• Does Expertise Influence the Impact of Overconfidence on Judgment, Valuation and Investment Decision?

  2012cites this paper
• Survival of Overconfidence in Currency Markets

  2012cites this paper
• The performance of a momentum investment strategy during bull and bear periods on the FTSE/JSE Africa Top 40 Index

  2012cites this paper
• Overconfidence, Compensation Contracts, and Capital Budgeting

  2011cites this paper
• Financial forecasts during the crisis: Were experts more accurate than laypeople?

  2011cites this paper
• Capital Budgeting and Other Investment Decisions

  2011cites this paper
• Intelligent management of intelligence agencies: beyond accountability ping-pong.

  2011cites this paper
• The analysis of human judgment accuracy using decision tree models

  2011cites this paper
• Who is the more overconfident trader? Individual vs. institutional investors

  2011cites this paper
• Endogenous Overconfidence in Managerial Forecasts

  2011cites this paper
• Finding True Beliefs : Applying Rank-Dependent Expected Utility Theory to Proper Scoring Rules

  2011cites this paper
• The Dynamics of Overconfidence: Evidence from Stock Market Forecasters

  2010cites this paper
• he dynamics of overconfidence : Evidence from stock arket forecasters

  2010cites this paper
• Metaknowledge in Higher Education: Self-Assessment Accuracy and its Association with Academic Achievement

  2010cites this paper
• The relevance of group expertise for the accuracy of a prediction market

  2010cites this paper
• Opening the Black Box of Upper Echelons: Drivers of Poor Information Processing During the Financial Crisis

  2010cites this paper
• Sentiments and rationalizability

  2010cites this paper
• Behavioral Anatomy of the Financial Crisis

  2010cites this paper
• Development of the overconfidence measurement instrument for the economic experiment

  2010cites this paper
• Report Cover Page

  2009cites this paper
• Stakeholders Welfare and Executive Compensation Under Managerial Overconfidence

  2009cites this paper
• Expert Knowledge and Gender as Drivers of Forecast Errors

  2009cites this paper
• A Truth Serum for Non-Bayesians: Correcting Proper Scoring Rules for Risk Attitudes*

  2009cites this paper
• Collecting and Behavioral Finance

  2009cites this paper
• Behavioral Finance: Capital Budgeting and Other Investment Decisions

  2009cites this paper
• Theories of choice under risk: Insights from financial markets

  2009cites this paper
• Risk, Overconfidence and Production in a Competitive Equilibrium

  2009cites this paper
• Behawioralne aspekty kryzysu finansowego

  2009cites this paper
• On Eliciting Beliefs in Strategic Games

  2009cites this paper
• A Truth Serum for Non-Bayesians: Correcting Proper Scoring Rules for Risk Attitudes

  2009cites this paper
• Overconfidence in interval estimates: What does expertise buy you?

  2008cites this paper
• OVERCONFIDENCE IN CURRENCY MARKETS

  2008cites this paper
• Annals of the University of North Carolina Wilmington International Masters of Business Administration

  2008cites this paper
• You Pay a Fee for Strong Beliefs: Homogeneity as a Driver of Corporate Governance Failure

  2008cites this paper
• Momentum in Emerging Markets: Investigation of Overconfidence and Cognitive Bias Factors

  2007cites this paper
• Investor Under-Reaction to Earnings Announcement and 10-K Report

  2007cites this paper
• What have we learned from our mistakes

  2007cites this paper
• ON ELICITING BELIEFS IN STRATEGIC GAMES

  2007cites this paper
• Advances in Decision Analysis: Aggregating Probability Distributions

  2007cites this paper
• Eliciting expert judgement 2 ACERA Project 0611 Eliciting Expert Judgments Report # 1 : Literature Review

  2007cites this paper
• Managerial Overconfidence and Corporate Policies

  2007cites this paper
• Framing Effects in Stock Market Forecasts: The Difference Between Asking for Prices and Asking for Returns

  2007cites this paper
• Arrogance can be a Virtue: Overconfidence, Information Acquisition, and Market Efficiency

  2007cites this paper
• Local futures traders and behavioural biases: evidence from Australia

  2007cites this paper
• Wycena papierów wartościowych na rynku kapitałowym w świetle finansów behawioralnych

  2007cites this paper
• Economists as experts: Overconfidence in theory and practice

  2006cites this paper
• Adaptation to physically and emotionally demanding conditions: the role of deliberate practice

  2006cites this paper
• O uso de informações por analistas de investimento na avaliação de empresas: à procura de padrões

  2006cites this paper
• The Enigma of Financial Expertise: Superior and Reproducible Investment Performance in Efficient Markets

  2006cites this paper
• Author ' s personal copy Overconfidence in interval estimates : What does expertise buy you ? q

  2005cites this paper