BANKERS’ FORECASTS OF FARMLAND VALUES: A QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE EVALUATION

Abstract This study evaluates the farmland price forecasts provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's Land Values and Credit Conditions Survey from 1991: quarter 1 (Q1) through 2016: Q1. Prior studies have demonstrated that similar surveys of agricultural bankers provide accurate predictions of the direction of future farm real estate values through qualitative forecast evaluation. This study extends the existing knowledge base by converting the qualitative responses to quantitative expectations. The quantified expectations are then subjected to additional forecast optimality tests, which suggest that the forecasts are unbiased but inefficient.

• Publication year

  2017

• Venue

  Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics

• Publication date

  2017-09-25

• Fields of study

  Agricultural and Food Sciences, Economics

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1017/aae.2017.16
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

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