SCIENCE@home

Accuracy and Confidence of Strategic Intelligence in Cases of Inadequate Information: Implications for Acquisition of Collection Systems

Patrick Carr,E. K. Ebersole,J. L. Sturtz

Published 2023 in IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics: Systems

ABSTRACT

In the early stages of acquisition of strategic intelligence collection systems, we may distinguish between developing new capabilities or adding additional capacity. To inform this decision, we suggest the use of a routine analytic product: long time series of reported accuracy and confidence. We test this by simulating notional collection and reporting in situations of inadequate capability and capacity. Inadequate capability, particularly where possible alternatives are not acknowledged, is the most striking case with consistently high confidence and low accuracy. Inadequate capacity is more recognizable, with well-calibrated but widely varying confidence and low accuracy. The adequate collection is identified with well-calibrated, slightly varying confidence and high accuracy. Capability and capacity may be able to be traded with similar performance.

PUBLICATION RECORD

  • Publication year

    2023

  • Venue

    IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics: Systems

  • Publication date

    2023-06-01

  • Fields of study

    Business, Computer Science

  • Identifiers
    DOI 10.1109/TSMC.2023.3234328
  • External record

    Open on Semantic Scholar

  • Source metadata

    Semantic Scholar

CITATION MAP

EXTRACTION MAP

CLAIMS

  • No claims are published for this paper.

CONCEPTS

  • No concepts are published for this paper.

REFERENCES

Showing 1-52 of 52 references · Page 1 of 1

CITED BY

  • No citing papers are available for this paper.

Showing 0-0 of 0 citing papers · Page 1 of 1