Judgment Extremity and Accuracy Under Epistemic vs. Aleatory Uncertainty

No abstract is available for this paper.

• Publication year

  2017

• Venue

  Management Sciences

• Publication date

  2017-02-01

• Fields of study

  Mathematics, Computer Science, Psychology

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1287/mnsc.2015.2344
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

• Journal of Experimental Psychology: General Two Dimensions of Subjective Uncertainty: Clues From Natural Language

  2016cited by this paper
• Foundations Of Statistics

  2016influential reference
• Data from Paper “False-Positive Psychology: Undisclosed Flexibility in Data Collection and Analysis Allows Presenting Anything as Significant”

  2014cited by this paper
• DISTINGUISHING TWO DIMENSIONS OF UNCERTAINTY

  2011influential reference
• Perspectives on thinking, judging, and decisions making : A tribute to Karl Halvor Teigen

  2011cited by this paper
• Robust tests for the equality of variances for clustered data

  2010cited by this paper
• The smart potential behind probability matching.

  2008cited by this paper
• The trouble with overconfidence.

  2008cited by this paper
• (www.interscience.wiley.com) DOI: 10.1002/bdm.575 The Transience of Constructed Preferences

  2008cited by this paper
• Probability matching involves rule-generating ability: a neuropsychological mechanism dealing with probabilities.

  2007cited by this paper
• A better lemon squeezer? Maximum-likelihood regression with beta-distributed dependent variables.

  2006influential reference
• Children's sensitivity to their own relative ignorance: handling of possibilities under epistemic and physical uncertainty.

  2006cited by this paper
• Between ignorance and truth: Partition dependence and learning in judgment under uncertainty.

  2006cited by this paper
• Calibration Trumps Confidence as a Basis for Witness Credibility

  2006cited by this paper
• Modeling patterns of probability calibration with random support theory: Diagnosing case-based judgment ☆

  2005cited by this paper
• Subjective Probability Assessment in Decision Analysis: Partition Dependence and Bias Toward the Ignorance Prior

  2005cited by this paper
• Variants of uncertainty in decision-making and their neural correlates.

  2005cited by this paper
• Searching for patterns in random sequences.

  2004cited by this paper
• S-R COMPATIBILITY : SPATIAL CHARACTERISTICS STIMULUS AND RESPONSE

  2004cited by this paper
• Why am I unsure? Internal and external attributions of uncertainty dissociated by fMRI

  2004cited by this paper
• A random support model of the calibration of subjective probabilities

  2003influential reference
• Heuristics and Biases: The Weighing of Evidence and the Determinants of Confidence

  2002cited by this paper
• Heuristics and Biases: Support Theory: A Nonextensional Representation of Subjective Probability

  2002influential reference
• Strength of evidence, judged probability, and choice under uncertainty.

  1999influential reference
• Overconfidence: It Depends on How, What, and Whom You Ask.

  1999cited by this paper
• The Matching Law: Papers In Psychology And Economics

  1999cited by this paper
• Fifty–fifty = 50%?

  1999cited by this paper
• A Belief-Based Account of Decision Under Uncertainty

  1998cited by this paper
• Patterns of preference for numerical and verbal probabilities.

  1997cited by this paper
• The Matching Law Papers in Psychology and Economics

  1997cited by this paper
• Unpacking, repacking, and anchoring: advances in support theory.

  1997cited by this paper
• The matching law

  1997cited by this paper
• Determinants of Overconfidence and Miscalibration: The Roles of Random Error and Ecological Structure☆

  1996cited by this paper
• Econometric Methods for Fractional Response Variables with an Application to 401(K) Plan Participation Rates

  1996influential reference
• Simultaneous Over- and Underconfidence: The Role of Error in Judgment Processes.

  1994cited by this paper
• On the evaluation of probability judgments : calibration, resolution, and monotonicity

  1993influential reference
• The Accuracy of Future Forecasts and Past Judgments

  1993cited by this paper
• Engineering psychology and human performance, 2nd ed.

  1992cited by this paper
• Calibration and probability judgements: Conceptual and methodological issues

  1991cited by this paper
• The overconfidence effect in social prediction.

  1990cited by this paper
• The role of construal processes in overconfident predictions about the self and others.

  1990cited by this paper
• Eliminating the hindsight bias.

  1988cited by this paper
• Components of probability judgment accuracy: Individual consistency and effects of subject matter and assessment method.

  1987influential reference
• Task influences on judgemental forecasting

  1987cited by this paper
• Counterfactual reasoning and accuracy in predicting personal events.

  1985cited by this paper
• Engineering Psychology and Human Performance

  1984cited by this paper
• Distribution of probability assessments for almanac and future event questions

  1982cited by this paper
• Calibration of probabilities: the state of the art to 1980

  1982cited by this paper
• External correspondence: Decompositions of the mean probability score

  1982cited by this paper
• A test of task influences in uncertainty measurement

  1982cited by this paper
• Changes in the realism and distribution of probability assessments as a function of question type

  1982cited by this paper
• Reasons for confidence.

  1980cited by this paper
• The Emergence of Probability. A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas about Probability, Induction and Statistical Inference

  1979cited by this paper
• Inferences of personal characteristics on the basis of information retrieved from one's memory.

  1978cited by this paper
• Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art

  1977cited by this paper
• Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?*1

  1977cited by this paper
• THE EMERGENCE OF PROBABILITY: A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas about Probability, Induction and Statistical Inference

  1976cited by this paper
• I knew it would happen: Remembered probabilities of once—future things

  1975cited by this paper
• A New Vector Partition of the Probability Score

  1973cited by this paper
• Robust tests for equality of variances

  1961cited by this paper
• Determinants of choice-distribution in two-choice situations.

  1955cited by this paper
• S-R compatibility: spatial characteristics of stimulus and response codes.

  1953cited by this paper
• VERIFICATION OF FORECASTS EXPRESSED IN TERMS OF PROBABILITY

  1950cited by this paper
• Probability, Statistics and Truth

  1940cited by this paper
• Probability, statistics and truth

  1939cited by this paper
• Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes a Strength Model of Probability Judgments for Tournaments Plished by Estimating Two Strength Values for Each

  year unknowninfluential reference
• PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE Research Article PARTITION PRIMING IN JUDGMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY

  year unknowncited by this paper

• Attitudes guiding social behavior as a function of perceived knowledge: The moderating role of epistemic vs. hedonic mindsets

  2026cites this paper
• The serious gaming randomness in dual-purposed systems: the effect of aleatory uncertainty from the perspective of information deprivation

  2025cites this paper
• No Developmental Differences in Preferences for Epistemic Versus Physical Uncertainty Across Three Diverse Cultures.

  2025cites this paper
• Product innovativeness under market uncertainty: the mediating impact of market orientation and absorptive capacity

  2025cites this paper
• How Causal Focus and Specificity in Risk Factor Disclosures Jointly Affect Investor Judgments

  2025cites this paper
• Integrating Probability and Possibility Theory: A Novel Approach to Valuing Real Options in Uncertain Environments

  2025cites this paper
• Individual foresight: Concept, operationalization, and correlates

  2025cites this paper
• What's in a sample? Epistemic uncertainty and metacognitive awareness in risk taking.

  2024cites this paper
• Noisy Retrieval of Experienced Probabilities Underlies Rational Judgment of Uncertain Multiple Events

  2024cites this paper
• Judgment in Business and Management Research: Shedding New Light on a Familiar Concept

  2024cites this paper
• A Taxonomy for Understanding and Identifying Uncertainty in AI-Generated Responses

  2024cites this paper
• Human-AI joint task performance: Learning from uncertainty in autonomous driving systems

  2024cites this paper
• Eliciting Willingness-to-Pay to Decompose Beliefs and Preferences that Determine Selection into Competition in Lab Experiments

  2023cites this paper
• Investor Behavior Under Epistemic vs. Aleatory Uncertainty

  2023cites this paper
• Unpacking Overconfident Behavior When Betting on Oneself

  2023cites this paper
• Using Sports Data to Advance Management Research: A Review and a Guide for Future Studies

  2022cites this paper
• Point, interval, and density forecasts: Differences in bias, judgment noise, and overall accuracy

  2022cites this paper
• Inventory control under different forms of uncertainty: Ambiguity and stochastic variability

  2022cites this paper
• Foreign to all but fluent in many: The effect of multinationality on shock resilience

  2022cites this paper
• The desirability bias in predictions under aleatory and epistemic uncertainty.

  2022cites this paper
• How people deal with …............................ outliers

  2022cites this paper
• Supplier dependence asymmetry and investment in innovation: The role of psychological uncertainty

  2021cites this paper
• Is it Reasonable to Study Decision-Making Quantitatively?

  2021cites this paper
• Salient knowledge that others are also evaluating reduces judgment extremity

  2021cites this paper
• AP-PSPJ210052 1..27

  2021cites this paper
• Modeling Epistemic Uncertainty in Offshore Wind Farm Production Capacity to Reduce Risk

  2021cites this paper
• Lay Beliefs about Changes in Financial Well-being Predict Political and Policy Message Preferences

  2020cites this paper
• The implicit honesty premium: Why honest advice is more persuasive than highly informed advice.

  2020cites this paper
• Combining Probability Forecasts: 60% and 60% Is 60%, but Likely and Likely Is Very Likely

  2020cites this paper
• Strategic Foresight as Dynamic Capability: A New Lens on Knightian Uncertainty

  2020cites this paper
• Communicating uncertainty : the role of communication format in maximising understanding and maintaining credibility

  2020cites this paper
• Aiding Difficult and High-Stakes Medical Decision Making - Research on Parental Tracheostomy Decisions for Critically Ill Children

  2020cites this paper
• High Chances and Close Margins

  2019cites this paper
• Overprecision increases subsequent surprise

  2019cites this paper
• Interdependence, Perception, and Investment Choices: An Experimental Approach to Decision Making in Innovation Ecosystems

  2019cites this paper
• Consumers Make Different Inferences and Choices When Product Uncertainty Is Attributed to Forgetting Rather than Ignorance

  2019cites this paper
• Time-conjunctive representations of future events

  2019cites this paper
• Overconfidence in Probability Distributions: People Know They Don't Know, but They Don't Know What to Do About It

  2019cites this paper
• Examining Notions of Uncertainty in the Healthcare Setting: A Qualitative Study

  2019cites this paper
• The Use of Online Panel Data in Management Research: A Review and Recommendations:

  2019cites this paper
• Falling Back on Numbers: When Preference for Numerical Product Information Increases after a Personal Control Threat

  2018cites this paper
• How causal focus and specificity in risk factor disclosures Jointly affect investor judgments

  2018influential citation
• Communicating and reasoning with verbal probability expressions

  2018cites this paper
• When the appeal of a dominant leader trumps a prestige leader

  2018cites this paper
• Epistemic Uncertainty Propagation in Power Models

  2018cites this paper
• Known Unknowns: A Critical Determinant of Confidence and Calibration

  2017cites this paper
• When the appeal of a dominant leader is greater than a prestige leader

  2017cites this paper
• Journal of Experimental Psychology: General Two Dimensions of Subjective Uncertainty: Clues From Natural Language

  2016cites this paper
• Wide of the mark: : Evidence on the underlying causes of overprecision in judgment

  2015cites this paper
• Assessing Children’s Probabilistic and Creative Thinking in a Non-Formal Learning Context

  year unknowncites this paper