Money Doesn't Grow on Trees, but Forecasts Do: Forecasting Extreme Precipitation with Random Forests

No abstract is available for this paper.

• Publication year

  2018

• Venue

  Monthly Weather Review

• Publication date

  2018-05-17

• Fields of study

  Environmental Science

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1175/MWR-D-17-0250.1
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

• Comparing Area Probability Forecasts of (Extreme) Local Precipitation Using Parametric and Machine Learning Statistical Postprocessing Methods

  2018cited by this paper
• “Dendrology” in Numerical Weather Prediction: What Random Forests and Logistic Regression Tell Us about Forecasting Extreme Precipitation

  2018cited by this paper
• Adaptive Kalman Filtering for Postprocessing Ensemble Numerical Weather Predictions

  2017cited by this paper
• Storm-Based Probabilistic Hail Forecasting with Machine Learning Applied to Convection-Allowing Ensembles

  2017cited by this paper
• Changes in the Systematic Errors of Global Reforecasts due to an Evolving Data Assimilation System

  2017cited by this paper
• Using Artificial Intelligence to Improve Real-Time Decision-Making for High-Impact Weather

  2017cited by this paper
• Assessment and Implications of NCEP Stage IV Quantitative Precipitation Estimates for Product Intercomparisons

  2016cited by this paper
• Using convection-allowing ensembles to understand the predictability of extreme rainfall

  2016cited by this paper
• Probabilistic forecasts of mesoscale convective system initiation using the random forest data mining technique

  2016cited by this paper
• Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond

  2016cited by this paper
• Using Reforecasts to Improve Forecasting of Fog and Visibility for Aviation

  2016cited by this paper
• Extreme Precipitation in Models: An Evaluation

  2016cited by this paper
• What History Tells Us about 2015 U.S. Daily Rainfall Extremes

  2016cited by this paper
• Adaptive Evolutionary Programming

  2015cited by this paper
• Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts by Fitting Censored, Shifted Gamma Distributions*

  2015cited by this paper
• The Great Colorado Flood of September 2013

  2015cited by this paper
• Improving Flash Flood Forecasts The HMT-WPC Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment

  2015cited by this paper
• Assessment of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model’s Ability to Predict Mesoscale Convective Systems Using Object-Based Evaluation

  2015cited by this paper
• Analog Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Using GEFS Reforecasts and Climatology-Calibrated Precipitation Analyses*

  2015cited by this paper
• Double Impact: When Both Tornadoes and Flash Floods Threaten the Same Place at the Same Time

  2015cited by this paper
• A Tutorial on Principal Component Analysis

  2014cited by this paper
• Machine Learning Enhancement of Storm-Scale Ensemble Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts

  2014cited by this paper
• Statistical calibration of extended-range probabilistic tornado forecasts with a reforecast dataset

  2014cited by this paper
• A 10-Year Survey of Extreme Rainfall Events in the Central and Eastern United States Using Gridded Multisensor Precipitation Analyses

  2014cited by this paper
• Precipitation and Temperature Forecast Performance at the Weather Prediction Center

  2014cited by this paper
• Climatology-Calibrated Precipitation Analysis at Fine Scales: Statistical Adjustment of Stage IV toward CPC Gauge-Based Analysis

  2014cited by this paper
• Machine Learning Enhancement of Storm Scale Ensemble Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts

  2013cited by this paper
• Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Heavy Hourly Rainfall in the United States

  2013cited by this paper
• The South-Central U.S. Flood of May 2010: Present and Future*

  2013cited by this paper
• Factors Influencing the Development and Maintenance of Nocturnal Heavy-Rain-Producing Convective Systems in a Storm-Scale Ensemble

  2013cited by this paper
• The Impact of Large-Scale Forcing on Skill of Simulated Convective Initiation and Upscale Evolution with Convection-Allowing Grid Spacings in the WRF*

  2013cited by this paper
• Climatological characteristics of atmospheric rivers and their inland penetration over the western united states

  2013cited by this paper
• NOAA's Second-Generation Global Medium-Range Ensemble Reforecast Dataset

  2013cited by this paper
• Generating and Calibrating Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from the High-Resolution NWP Model COSMO-DE

  2012cited by this paper
• Evaluation of Tools Used for Monitoring and Forecasting Flash Floods in the United States

  2012cited by this paper
• Machine learning - a probabilistic perspective

  2012influential reference
• A review of advances in flash flood forecasting

  2011cited by this paper
• Support vector machine-based short-term wind power forecasting

  2011cited by this paper
• Scikit-learn: Machine Learning in Python

  2011cited by this paper
• Neighborhood-Based Verification of Precipitation Forecasts from Convection-Allowing NCAR WRF Model Simulations and the Operational NAM

  2010cited by this paper
• The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble

  2010cited by this paper
• Utilizing Normalized Anomalies to Assess Synoptic-Scale Weather Events in the Western United States

  2010cited by this paper
• Evaluations of NAM Forecasts on Midtropospheric Perturbation-Induced Convective Storms over the U.S. Northern Plains

  2009cited by this paper
• Assessing the Potential for Rare Precipitation Events with Standardized Anomalies and Ensemble Guidance at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

  2009cited by this paper
• Precipitation-Frequency Atlas of the United States

  2009cited by this paper
• Characteristics of high-resolution versions of the Met Office unified model for forecasting convection over the United Kingdom

  2008cited by this paper
• Some Practical Considerations Regarding Horizontal Resolution in the First Generation of Operational Convection-Allowing NWP

  2008cited by this paper
• Initial perturbations based on the ensemble transform (ET) technique in the NCEP global operational forecast system

  2008cited by this paper
• Experiences with 0–36-h Explicit Convective Forecasts with the WRF-ARW Model

  2008cited by this paper
• Probabilistic Forecast Calibration Using ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Reforecasts. Part II: Precipitation

  2008cited by this paper
• Probabilistic Forecast Calibration Using ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Reforecasts. Part I: Two-Meter Temperatures

  2008cited by this paper
• Mesoscale Processes Contributing to Extreme Rainfall in a Midlatitude Warm-Season Flash Flood*

  2008cited by this paper
• Incremental Learning for Robust Visual Tracking

  2008cited by this paper
• A distributed hydrologic model and threshold frequency-based method for flash flood forecasting at ungauged locations

  2007cited by this paper
• Comparison of the Diurnal Precipitation Cycle in Convection-Resolving and Non-Convection-Resolving Mesoscale Models

  2007cited by this paper
• Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences

  2007cited by this paper
• Mesoscale Predictability of Moist Baroclinic Waves: Convection-Permitting Experiments and Multistage Error Growth Dynamics

  2007cited by this paper
• HYDROLOGIC VERIFICATION A Call for Action and Collaboration

  2007cited by this paper
• Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Based on Reforecast Analogs: Theory and Application

  2006cited by this paper
• Summary of Convective Storm Initiation and Evolution during IHOP: Observational and Modeling Perspective

  2006cited by this paper
• Measuring forecast skill: is it real skill or is it the varying climatology?

  2006cited by this paper
• Extremely randomized trees

  2006cited by this paper
• Examination of convection-allowing configurations of the WRF model for the prediction of severe convective weather : The SPC/NSSL spring program 2004

  2006cited by this paper
• The use of a modified Ebert-McBride technique to evaluate mesoscale model QPF as a function of convective system morphology during IHOP 2002

  2006cited by this paper
• Characteristics of U.S. extreme rain events during 1999-2003

  2006cited by this paper
• Spatial Forecasts of Maximum Hail Size Using Prognostic Model Soundings and HAILCAST

  2006cited by this paper
• Performance of national weather service forecasts compared to operational, consensus, and weighted model output statistics

  2005cited by this paper
• The Catastrophic Flash-Flood Event of 8–9 September 2002 in the Gard Region, France: A First Case Study for the Cévennes–Vivarais Mediterranean Hydrometeorological Observatory

  2005cited by this paper
• Summary of convective storm initiation and evolution during IHOP

  2004cited by this paper
• Induction of decision trees

  2004cited by this paper
• Ensemble Reforecasting: Improving Medium-Range Forecast Skill Using Retrospective Forecasts

  2004cited by this paper
• On Bias, Variance, 0/1—Loss, and the Curse-of-Dimensionality

  2004cited by this paper
• Improving quantitative precipitation forecasts in the warm season: A USWRP research and development strategy

  2004cited by this paper
• Coherence of Warm-Season Continental Rainfall in Numerical Weather Prediction Models

  2003cited by this paper
• Effects of Moist Convection on Mesoscale Predictability

  2003cited by this paper
• Effective mesoscale, short-range ensemble forecasting

  2003cited by this paper
• Comparison of Methodologies for Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting

  2002cited by this paper
• Random Forests

  2001cited by this paper
• An Adaptive Neural Network Scheme for Radar Rainfall Estimation from WSR-88D Observations

  2001cited by this paper
• An overview of the National Weather Service's centralized statistical quantitative precipitation forecasts

  2000cited by this paper
• Climatology of Heavy Rain Events in the United States from Hourly Precipitation Observations

  2000cited by this paper
• Probabilistic Predictions of Precipitation Using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System

  1999cited by this paper
• Precipitation Forecasting Using a Neural Network

  1999cited by this paper
• Performance of an Advanced MOS System in the 1996–97 National Collegiate Weather Forecasting Contest

  1997cited by this paper
• The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Methodology and validation

  1996cited by this paper
• Support-Vector Networks

  1995cited by this paper
• Multivariate Decision Trees

  1995cited by this paper
• New NGM-Based MOS Guidance for Maximum/Minimum Temperature, Probability of Precipitation, Cloud Amount, and Surface Wind

  1990cited by this paper
• Conservative rezoning algorithm for generalized two-dimensional meshes☆

  1985cited by this paper
• Sampling Errors in the Estimation of Empirical Orthogonal Functions

  1982cited by this paper
• An Application of Model Output Statistics to Forecasting Quantitative Precipitation

  1975cited by this paper
• A New Vector Partition of the Probability Score

  1973cited by this paper
• Precipitation-frequency atlas of the Western United States

  1973cited by this paper
• The Use of Model Output Statistics (MOS) in Objective Weather Forecasting

  1972cited by this paper
• OBJECTIVE PREDICTION OF FIVE-DAY MEAN TEMPERATURES DURING WINTER

  1959cited by this paper

• Explainable artificial intelligence identifies key meteorological drivers of extreme precipitation in the Asian Monsoon Region

  2026cites this paper
• ADVANCES IN MACHINE LEARNING-BASED RAINFALL FORECASTING: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW

  2026cites this paper
• Impact of NWP Model Configuration and Training Sample Characteristics on Random Forest‐Based Day‐1 Convective Outlook Guidance

  2025influential citation
• Uncertainty quantification of wind gust predictions in the northeast United States: An evidential neural network and explainable artificial intelligence approach

  2025cites this paper
• Beyond the horizon: A comprehensive analysis of artificial intelligence-based weather forecasting models

  2025cites this paper
• Ensemble post-processing of sub-seasonal to seasonal precipitation forecasts based on a novel probabilistic double machine learning method

  2025cites this paper
• Short‐Duration Extreme Rainfall Events in the Central and Eastern United States During the Summer: 2003–2023 Trends and Variability

  2024cites this paper
• Classifying microwave radiometer observations over The Netherlands into dry, shallow-, and non-shallow precipitation using a random forest model

  2024cites this paper
• Improved Diagnosis of Precipitation Type with LightGBM Machine Learning

  2024cites this paper
• Improving Boreal Summer Precipitation Predictions From the Global NMME Through Res34‐Unet

  2024cites this paper
• Predicting climate change using an autoregressive long short-term memory model

  2024cites this paper
• Inferring Thunderstorm Occurrence from Vertical Profiles of Convection-Permitting Simulations: Physical Insights from a Physical Deep Learning Model

  2024cites this paper
• A Method Based on Deep Learning for Severe Convective Weather Forecast: CNN-BiLSTM-AM (Version 1.0)

  2024cites this paper
• A Convolutional Neural Network-based Ensemble Post-processing with Data Augmentation for Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Forecasts

  2024cites this paper
• An Earth-System-Oriented View of the S2S Predictability of North American Weather Regimes

  2024cites this paper
• Improving ensemble extreme precipitation forecasts using generative artificial intelligence

  2024cites this paper
• The Added Value of Statistical Seasonal Forecasts

  2024cites this paper
• Probabilistic Forecasts of Atmospheric River events using the HRRR Ensemble

  2024cites this paper
• Impacts of an upper tropospheric cold low on the extreme precipitation in Henan Province, China in July 2021

  2023cites this paper
• Systematic Bias Correction in Ocean Mesoscale Forecasting Using Machine Learning

  2023cites this paper
• A machine‐learning approach to thunderstorm forecasting through post‐processing of simulation data

  2023cites this paper
• Statistical Bias Correction of Precipitation Forecasts Based on Quantile Mapping on the Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Scale

  2023cites this paper
• Statistical post-processing of precipitation forecasts using circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks

  2023cites this paper
• A Review of Recent and Emerging Machine Learning Applications for Climate Variability and Weather Phenomena

  2023cites this paper
• Probabilistic Forecasting Methods of Winter Mixed Precipitation Events in New York State Utilizing a Random Forest

  2023cites this paper
• Evidential Deep Learning: Enhancing Predictive Uncertainty Estimation for Earth System Science Applications

  2023cites this paper
• Assessing Predictability of Marine Heatwaves With Random Forests

  2022cites this paper
• Adapting to Climate Change Through Anticipatory Action: The Potential Use of Weather-Based Early Warnings

  2022cites this paper
• Exploring the relationship between temperature forecast errors and Earth system variables

  2022cites this paper
• Dual-Frequency Radar Retrievals of Snowfall Using Random Forest

  2022cites this paper
• Improving Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasts in Predicting the Occurrence of Extreme Precipitation Events Over the Contiguous U.S. Using Machine Learning Models

  2022cites this paper
• Modeling Individual Extended Attack Wildfire Suppression Expenditures in British Columbia

  2022cites this paper
• A New Paradigm for Medium-range Severe Weather Forecasts: Probabilistic Random Forest-based Predictions

  2022cites this paper
• Application of deep learning to understanding ENSO dynamics

  2022cites this paper
• On the Application of an Observations‐Based Machine Learning Parameterization of Surface Layer Fluxes Within an Atmospheric Large‐Eddy Simulation Model

  2022cites this paper
• Automated Identification of ‘Dunkelflaute’ Events: A Convolutional Neural Network-Based Autoencoder Approach

  2022cites this paper
• Machine Learning for Improving Surface-Layer-Flux Estimates

  2022cites this paper
• Simulation of Atlantic Hurricane Tracks and Features: A Deep Learning Approach

  2022cites this paper
• The Relationship Between Reflectivity and Rainfall Rate From Rain Size Distributions Observed in Hurricanes

  2022cites this paper
• QRF4P‐NRT: Probabilistic Post‐Processing of Near‐Real‐Time Satellite Precipitation Estimates Using Quantile Regression Forests

  2022cites this paper
• A multivariate decomposition–ensemble model for estimating long-term rainfall dynamics

  2022influential citation
• ADASYN-LOF Algorithm for Imbalanced Tornado Samples

  2022cites this paper
• Urban effects on weakly forced thunderstorms observed in the Southeast United States

  2022cites this paper
• A Machine Learning Tutorial for Operational Meteorology, Part I: Traditional Machine Learning

  2022cites this paper
• High‐resolution flood precipitation and streamflow relationships in two US river basins

  2021cites this paper
• Verifying and Redefining the Weather Prediction Center’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook Forecast Product

  2021cites this paper
• Evaluating Variations in Tropical Cyclone Precipitation in Eastern Mexico Using Machine Learning Techniques

  2021cites this paper
• Post-processing Multi-Model Medium-Term Precipitation Forecasts Using Convolutional Neural Networks

  2021cites this paper
• Achieving effective calibration of precipitation forecasts over a continental scale

  2021cites this paper
• From Random Forests to Flood Forecasts: A Research to Operations Success Story

  2021cites this paper
• Climatology of Linear Mesoscale Convective System Morphology in the United States based on Random Forests Method

  2021cites this paper
• Classification of GLM Flashes Using Random Forests

  2021cites this paper
• DETERMINING WHEN AND HOW A RANDOM FOREST ADDS VALUE TO DAY 1 SPC HAIL FORECASTS

  2021cites this paper
• Modulation of mid-Atlantic tropical cyclone landfalls by the Madden-Julian Oscillation

  2021cites this paper
• Evaluation of machine learning techniques for forecast uncertainty quantification

  2021cites this paper
• Convolutional neural network-based statistical post-processing of ensemble precipitation forecasts

  2021cites this paper
• Predicting Impact of COVID-19 on Crude Oil Price Image with Directed Acyclic Graph Deep Convolution Neural Network

  2021cites this paper
• Calibration of sea ice drift forecasts using random forest algorithms

  2021cites this paper
• Coupling random forest and inverse distance weighting to generate climate surfaces of precipitation and temperature with Multiple-Covariates

  2021cites this paper
• Radar-based Hail-producing Storm Detection Using Positive Unlabeled Classification

  2020cites this paper
• Calibration of Machine Learning–Based Probabilistic Hail Predictions for Operational Forecasting

  2020cites this paper
• Seasonal forecasting of daily mean air temperatures using a coupled global climate model and machine learning algorithm for field-scale agricultural management

  2020cites this paper
• Recent Advances in Real-Time Pluvial Flash Flood Forecasting

  2020cites this paper
• Development of a Probabilistic Subfreezing Road Temperature Nowcast and Forecast Using Machine Learning

  2020cites this paper
• Dual-Polarization Radar Retrievals of Coastal Pacific Northwest Raindrop Size Distribution Parameters Using Random Forest Regression

  2020cites this paper
• Improving Data‐Driven Global Weather Prediction Using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks on a Cubed Sphere

  2020cites this paper
• A low-cost post-processing technique improves weather forecasts around the world

  2020cites this paper
• A nuanced quantile random forest approach for fast prediction of a stochastic marine flooding simulator applied to a macrotidal coastal site

  2020cites this paper
• The formation, character and changing nature of mesoscale convective systems

  2020cites this paper
• Generating Probabilistic Next-Day Severe Weather Forecasts from Convection-Allowing Ensembles Using Random Forests

  2020cites this paper
• Aviation Turbulence Forecasting at Upper Levels with Machine Learning Techniques Based on Regression Trees

  2020cites this paper
• A Comparison of Neural-Network and Surrogate-Severe Probabilistic Convective Hazard Guidance Derived from a Convection-Allowing Model

  2020cites this paper
• Daily Flood Forecasts with Intelligent Data Analytic Models: Multivariate Empirical Mode Decomposition-Based Modeling Methods

  2020cites this paper
• Machine Learning-Based Error Modeling to Improve GPM IMERG Precipitation Product over the Brahmaputra River Basin

  2020cites this paper
• Predicting complete winter ice coverage at Lake George, New York

  2020cites this paper
• Machine Learning Models for the Seasonal Forecast of Winter Surface Air Temperature in North America

  2020cites this paper
• Using Machine Learning to Calibrate Storm-Scale Probabilistic Guidance of Severe Weather Hazards in the Warn-on-Forecast System

  2020cites this paper
• Nowcasting Multicell Short-Term Intense Precipitation Using Graph Models and Random Forests

  2020cites this paper
• An Automated Python Algorithm to Quantify ZDR Arc and KDP–ZDR Separation Signatures in Supercells

  2020cites this paper
• Forecasting Severe Weather with Random Forests

  2020cites this paper
• Radar-Based Automatic Identification and Quantification of Weak Echo Regions for Hail Nowcasting

  2019cites this paper
• Weathering Storms and Flooded Waters: Anthropological Perspectives of Policy and Risk in Toronto, Ontario

  2019cites this paper
• Dynamical Mechanisms Supporting Extreme Rainfall Accumulations in the Houston “Tax Day” 2016 Flood

  2019cites this paper
• Postprocessing Next-Day Ensemble Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Using Random Forests

  2019cites this paper
• Verification Results from the 2017 HMT–WPC Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment

  2019cites this paper
• Forecasting Different Types of Convective Weather: A Deep Learning Approach

  2019cites this paper
• Climatology of Flood-Producing Storms and Their Associated Rainfall Characteristics in the United States

  2019cites this paper
• An Analysis of Differential Reflectivity Arc Characteristics in 109 Supercell Storms

  2019cites this paper
• Can Machines Learn to Predict Weather? Using Deep Learning to Predict Gridded 500‐hPa Geopotential Height From Historical Weather Data

  2019cites this paper
• Deep Learning for Scientific Inference from Geophysical Data: The Madden-Julian Oscillation as a Test Case

  2019cites this paper
• Analog Forecasting of Extreme‐Causing Weather Patterns Using Deep Learning

  2019cites this paper
• Application of machine learning techniques to weather forecasting

  2019cites this paper
• Evolution of Pre- and Postconvective Environmental Profiles from Mesoscale Convective Systems during PECAN

  2019cites this paper
• Predicting clustered weather patterns: A test case for applications of convolutional neural networks to spatio-temporal climate data

  2018cites this paper
• Comparison of Machine Learning Techniques for Convective Morphology Classification from Radar Imagery

  2018cites this paper
• Flash Flood Verification: Pondering Precipitation Proxies

  2018cites this paper
• Generating Calibrated Ensembles of Physically Realistic, High-Resolution Precipitation Forecast Fields Based on GEFS Model Output

  2018influential citation
• Comparing Area Probability Forecasts of (Extreme) Local Precipitation Using Parametric and Machine Learning Statistical Postprocessing Methods

  2018cites this paper
• “Dendrology” in Numerical Weather Prediction: What Random Forests and Logistic Regression Tell Us about Forecasting Extreme Precipitation

  2018cites this paper
• Forest-Based and Semiparametric Methods for the Postprocessing of Rainfall Ensemble Forecasting

  2017cites this paper