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Emulation as an approach for rapid estuarine modeling

K. Parker,P. Ruggiero,K. Serafin,D. Hill

Published 2019 in Coastal Engineering

ABSTRACT

Abstract Probabilistic flood hazard assessment is a promising methodology for estuarine risk assessment but currently remains limited by prohibitively long simulation times. This study addresses this problem through the development of an emulator, or surrogate model, which replaces the simulator (in this case the coupled ADCIRC+SWAN model) with a statistical representation that is able to rapidly predict estuarine variables relevant to flooding. Emulation of water levels (WLs), non-tidal residual, and significant wave height, is explored at Grays Harbor, Washington (WA) USA using Gaussian process regression. The effectiveness of the methodology is validated at various model simplification levels to determine where error is being sourced. Emulated WLs are found to be skillful when compared to over a decade of tide gauge observations (root mean square error, RMSE,

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