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Quantifying the ozone and ultraviolet benefits already achieved by the Montreal Protocol

M. Chipperfield,S. Dhomse,W. Feng,Rl L. McKenzie,G. Velders,J. Pyle

Published 2015 in Nature Communications

ABSTRACT

Chlorine- and bromine-containing ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are controlled by the 1987 Montreal Protocol. In consequence, atmospheric equivalent chlorine peaked in 1993 and has been declining slowly since then. Consistent with this, models project a gradual increase in stratospheric ozone with the Antarctic ozone hole expected to disappear by ∼2050. However, we show that by 2013 the Montreal Protocol had already achieved significant benefits for the ozone layer. Using a 3D atmospheric chemistry transport model, we demonstrate that much larger ozone depletion than observed has been avoided by the protocol, with beneficial impacts on surface ultraviolet. A deep Arctic ozone hole, with column values <120 DU, would have occurred given meteorological conditions in 2011. The Antarctic ozone hole would have grown in size by 40% by 2013, with enhanced loss at subpolar latitudes. The decline over northern hemisphere middle latitudes would have continued, more than doubling to ∼15% by 2013. Ozone-depleting substances have been controlled by the 1987 Montreal Protocol, ensuring atmospheric concentrations are now in decline. Here, the authors use a 3D model and suggest that these controls have already had significant benefits, with much larger ozone depletion than previously thought avoided by the protocol.

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