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The Earth radiation balance as driver of the global hydrological cycle

M. Wild,B. Liepert

Published 2010 in Environmental Research Letters

ABSTRACT

Variations in the intensity of the global hydrological cycle can have far-reaching effects on living conditions on our planet. While climate change discussions often revolve around possible consequences of future temperature changes, the adaptation to changes in the hydrological cycle may pose a bigger challenge to societies and ecosystems. Floods and droughts are already today amongst the most damaging natural hazards, with floods being globally the most significant disaster type in terms of loss of human life (Jonkman 2005). From an economic perspective, changes in the hydrological cycle can impose great pressures and damages on a variety of industrial sectors, such as water management, urban planning, agricultural production and tourism. Despite their obvious environmental and societal importance, our understanding of the causes and magnitude of the variations of the hydrological cycle is still unsatisfactory (e.g., Ramanathan et al 2001, Ohmura and Wild 2002, Allen and Ingram 2002, Allan 2007, Wild et al 2008, Liepert and Previdi 2009). The link between radiation balance and hydrological cycle Globally, precipitation can be approximated by surface evaporation, since the variability of the atmospheric moisture storage is negligible. This is the case because the fluxes are an order of magnitude larger than the atmospheric storage (423 x 1012 m3 year-1 versus 13 x 1012 m3 according to Baumgartner and Reichel (1975)), the latter being determined by temperature (Clausius–Clapeyron). Hence the residence time of evaporated water in the atmosphere is not more than a few days, before it condenses and falls back to Earth in the form of precipitation. Any change in the globally averaged surface evaporation therefore implies an equivalent change in precipitation, and thus in the intensity of the global hydrological cycle. The process of evaporation requires energy, which it obtains from the surface radiation balance (also known as surface net radiation), composed of the absorbed solar and net thermal radiative exchanges at the Earth's surface. Globally averaged, this surface radiation balance is positive, since radiative absorption, scattering and emission in the climate system act to generate an energy surplus at the surface and an energy deficit in the atmosphere (Liepert 2010). Evaporation, or more precisely its energy equivalent, the latent heat flux, is the main process that compensates for this imbalance between surface and atmosphere, since the latent heat dominates the convective energy flux over sensible heating. The radiative energy surplus at the surface is thus mainly consumed by evaporation and moist convection and subsequently released in the atmosphere through condensation. This implies that any alterations in the available radiative energy will induce changes in the water fluxes. Our focus in this editorial is therefore on the surface radiation balance as the principal driver of the global hydrological cycle. Note that this energetic view is in agreement with that of Richter and Xie (2008) who argue that the spatial and temporal behaviour of the process of evaporation is controlled by surface and atmospheric properties such as atmospheric stability, wind speed, moisture deficit and moisture availability. From radiation theory it is expected that with increasing radiative absorption due to abundance of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and consequent warming, the emission of thermal energy from the atmosphere towards the surface is increasing (known as downward thermal radiation). This enhances the radiative energy surplus at the surface, and, where surface water is not limited, fuels evaporation besides warming the Earth's surface. The enhanced greenhouse effect therefore tends to accelerate the hydrological cycle, as also shown in many climate model simulations with increasing levels of greenhouse gases (e.g., IPCC 2007, but also see Yang et al 2003, Andrews et al 2009). We can assume that the increase in greenhouse gases since preindustrial times had already led to a substantial increase of downward thermal radiation during the 20th century, even though direct observational evidence is sparse and restricted to the latter part of the century (Philipona et al 2004, Wild et al 2008). Precipitation records averaged over global land surfaces indicate an overall, albeit not significant, increase in precipitation and intensification of the hydrological cycle over the 20th century (Trenberth et al 2007), in line with the aforementioned surface energy gain from the increased greenhouse gases and related downward thermal radiation. However, the observations show also that precipitation has not simply followed the increasing greenhouse gas forcing, but has undergone strong decadal variations, with extended periods of both increases and decreases. This is evident in figure 1(a), which shows global land precipitation over the 20th century as determined from the Global Historic Climate Network (GHCN; Peterson and Vose 1997, see also Trenberth et al 2007, figure 3.12). An increase in precipitation can be noted in the 1940s, followed by an overall decrease until the mid-1980s, and a renewed increase more recently. Figure 1. Observed terrestrial precipitation anomalies (a) and the longest observational surface solar radiation record measured in Stockholm (b) covering the period 1923–2000 (annual means). The 11-year running means are given in blue. Precipitation data from GHCN, radiation data from GEBA. However, not only greenhouse-gas-induced thermal radiation changes, but also solar radiation, as a result of changes in the atmospheric transmission, can alter the surface radiation balance and thus the amount of energy available to drive the hydrological cycle. Solar forcings may be even more efficient in modifying the intensity of the hydrological cycle than thermal forcings, as indicated by a higher hydrological sensitivity (e.g., Allen and Ingram 2002, Liepert et al 2004). The hydrological sensitivity, defined as change of precipitation per unit temperature change, is found to be 2–3 times larger under solar forcings than under thermal forcings (Liepert et al 2004, Andrews et al 2009). This is related to the fact that solar forcings apply at the surface directly because of the high solar transparency of the atmosphere compared to thermal radiation. Solar forcings thus effectively alter the surface radiation balance and the associated imbalance between the surface and atmospheric energy contents, which needs to be compensated for by convective fluxes and related evaporation/precipitation. Greenhouse-gas-induced thermal forcings, on the other hand, heat the atmosphere directly through radiative absorption and the surface indirectly through downward thermal radiation. Thermal forcings are therefore less effective in strengthening the imbalance between the surface and atmospheric energy contents. Hence the required changes in the compensational convective fluxes and associated evaporation/precipitation are smaller (equation (4) in Liepert and Previdi 2009). The different effects of solar and thermal forcings become particularly evident in the direct (fast) response of the hydrological cycle to them, while the subsequent longer-term response of the hydrological cycle, including all feedbacks induced by these forcings, is similar between the two forcing mechanisms (Andrews et al 2009, Lambert and Webb 2008). The direct effect of doubling of CO2 concentration reduces the precipitation increase in climate models by about 25% (Lambert and Webb 2008), while such compensational effects do not apply with solar forcings. Recent evidence suggests that the amount of solar radiation incident at the Earth's surface (hereafter referred to as downward solar radiation) has indeed not been stable over time but has undergone significant variations on decadal timescales. This evidence comes from the networks of surface radiation measurements taken around the globe which became operational on a widespread basis during the 1950s. Specifically, the measurements show a predominant decrease in downward solar radiation from the 1950s up to the 1980s (known as 'global dimming') and a partial recovery thereafter at many of the sites (known as 'brightening') (e.g., Gilgen et al 1998, Stanhill and Cohen 2001, Liepert 2002, Wild et al 2005, Wild 2009a). The consecutive downward and upward trends have at least to some extent been attributed to increasing and decreasing air pollution, respectively (Streets et al 2009), apart from the natural inter-decadal variability of cloudiness and volcanic eruptions. The longest observational records show in addition a tendency for an increase in downward solar radiation in the first part of the 20th century ('early brightening'). An illustrative example is given in figure 1(b), which depicts the longest continuous record of downward solar radiation measured in Stockholm. This series, starting in 1923, shows an increase in the 1930s and 1940s, an overall decrease from the 1950s up to the 1980s and a more recent recovery. This evolution is, surprisingly, at least qualitatively similar to the global land precipitation record shown in figure 1(a). Although a comparison of a radiation time series measured at a single station with a global land-averaged precipitation time series is by no means representative, it may illustrate the above point of a potential close link between decadal variations of surface radiation and precipitation. Attempts have been made to infer decadal changes in the surface radiation balance based on both modelling and observational approaches. Liepert et al (2004) analyzed equilibrium experiments with a climate model with greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations representative for mid-1880s and mid-1980s conditions, respectively. They noted a decrease in absorbed solar radiation at the surface of 3.8 Wm-2 globally, mainly due to the aerosol direct and indirect effects, which ar

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