The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity

No abstract is available for this paper.

• Publication year

  1991

• Venue

  Unknown venue

• Publication date

  1991-06-01

• Fields of study

  Economics

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1111/J.1540-6261.1991.TB02674.X
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

• Common Factors Affecting Bond Returns

  1991cited by this paper
• Volatility and the Yield Curve

  1991cited by this paper
• Term-structure forecasts of interest rates, inflation and real returns

  1990cited by this paper
• The Yield Curve and Recessions

  1989cited by this paper
• Forecasts of Economic Growth from the Bond and Stock Markets

  1989cited by this paper
• Stock Prices Under Time-Varying Dividend Risk: an Exact Solution in an Infinite-Horizon General Equilibrium Model

  1988cited by this paper
• How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?

  1988cited by this paper
• The Information in the Term Structure: Some Further Results

  1988cited by this paper
• What Does the Term Structure Tell Us About Future Inflation?

  1988cited by this paper
• The Predictive Power of the Term Structure during Recent Monetary Regimes

  1988cited by this paper
• The Real Term Structure and Consumption Growth

  1988cited by this paper
• The information in forward rates: Implications for models of the term structure

  1988cited by this paper
• An interest rate-based indicator of monetary policy

  1988cited by this paper
• Testing between Competing Models of Sharecropping

  1987cited by this paper
• Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models

  1987cited by this paper
• The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates

  1987cited by this paper
• The workweek of capital and its cyclical implications

  1986cited by this paper
• Term premiums and default premiums in money markets

  1986cited by this paper
• The puzzling price behavior of treasury bills that mature at the turn of calendar months

  1986cited by this paper
• The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

  1986cited by this paper
• The information in the term structure

  1984cited by this paper
• Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates

  1983cited by this paper
• The Theory and Practice of Econometrics

  1981cited by this paper
• Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis

  1980cited by this paper

• The yield curve strikes back: New evidence of its predictive power for economic activity and inflation

  2026cites this paper
• Non-Homogeneous Markov-Switching Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape

  2026cites this paper
• Dynamics among the term spread, stock market volatility forecast, financial market risk and oil price: an empirical analysis

  2026cites this paper
• Policy uncertainty and tail risk in energy futures: The role of maturity and storage capacity constraints

  2026cites this paper
• Inflation tales: the heterogeneous price effects from current account dynamics

  2026cites this paper
• Bond Risk Characteristics and Factor Risk Premia

  2026cites this paper
• Do Shiller Macro and Micro Narratives Characterize the S&P 500 Index Returns? New Insights

  2026cites this paper
• The U.S. shale energy sector navigating domestic policies in a fragmenting global economy

  2026cites this paper
• The adaptive markets hypothesis through the lens of machine learning

  2026cites this paper
• Can monetary policy mitigate the COVID-19 shocks? Based on the perspective of both the real economy and financial stability

  2025cites this paper
• Domain Knowledge Matters: Evidence from Bank Failure Rate Predictions with Machine Learning

  2025cites this paper
• Assessing the Interaction between the Yield Curve and the Business Cycle in Britain, 1800-1913 | PhD Thesis 2025

  2025cites this paper
• Public debt burden and crisis severity

  2025cites this paper
• Assessment of the Relationship between Central Bank Interest Rate, Inflation and Growth in Central Africa Countries with the New Leading-Lagging Method

  2025cites this paper
• Misaligned expectations and bond term premium measures

  2025cites this paper
• Variance and skewness in density forecasts: assessing world GDP growth

  2025cites this paper
• A predictive term-spread model in the age of inflation targeting

  2025cites this paper
• Multi-period Euler-equation learning and term structure

  2025cites this paper
• Forecasting Recessions in Germany with Feature Selection and Machine Learning

  2025cites this paper
• Systemic financial risk analysis of the U.S. based on the complex network

  2025cites this paper
• A Hybrid Vector Autoregressive Model for Accurate Macroeconomic Forecasting: An Application to the U.S. Economy

  2025cites this paper
• The Impact of Supply and Demand Driven Oil Price Uncertainty on the Cost of Bank Loans

  2025cites this paper
• Adaptive sequential Monte Carlo for structured cross validation in Bayesian hierarchical models

  2025cites this paper
• Two-Step Optimal Prediction Under Phillips Triangular Cointegrated System

  2025cites this paper
• Market Efficiency and its Determinants: Macro-Level Dynamics and Micro-Level Characteristics of Cryptocurrencies

  2025cites this paper
• Ex ante bond returns and time-varying monotonicity

  2025cites this paper
• Supply and Demand shocks: the short-term and long-term drivers of oil price uncertainty

  2025cites this paper
• Data element, big data and enterprise innovation: Based on data elements trading platforms and national big data comprehensive pilot zones

  2025cites this paper
• Economic downturn and the yield curve: Evidence from Canada and the US

  2025cites this paper
• Global Uncertainty and BRICS+ Equity Markets: Spillovers from VIX, Geopolitical Risk, and U.S. Macro-Financial Shocks

  2025cites this paper
• Does risk aversion predict the future real economy?

  2025cites this paper
• Predicting Recessions and Information About Yield Curves and Stock Markets in Japan

  2025cites this paper
• The impact of term spread volatility on economic activity

  2025cites this paper
• Time-Varying Parameter MIDAS Models: Application to Nowcasting US Real GDP

  2025cites this paper
• Does it take two to tango: Interaction between Credit Default Swaps and National Stock Indices

  2025cites this paper
• Short-Term Interest Rates and Stock Returns: A Test of Predictive Power and Market Efficiency

  2025cites this paper
• Financial Intermediation and Informational Efficiency: Predicting Business Cycles

  2024cites this paper
• Does Dividend Policy Lead the Economy?

  2024cites this paper
• Forecasting the yield curve: the role of additional and time‐varying decay parameters, conditional heteroscedasticity, and macro‐economic factors

  2024cites this paper
• Information content in yield curve dynamics: Implications for monetary policy

  2024cites this paper
• Do Recessions and Bear Markets Occur Concurrently across Countries? A Multinomial Logistic Approach

  2024cites this paper
• Nowcasting Italian GDP Growth: A Factor MIDAS Approach

  2024cites this paper
• Comparative Analysis of Responses of Risky and Safe Haven Assets to Stock Market Risk Before and After the Yield Curve Inversions in the U.S.

  2024cites this paper
• Reassessing the Predictive Power of the Yield Spread for Recessions in the United States

  2024cites this paper
• What Make Term Spreads So Prescient?

  2024cites this paper
• Advancing Markowitz: Asset Allocation Forest

  2024cites this paper
• Risk price decomposition and the output gap

  2024cites this paper
• Reassessing the inversion of the Treasury yield curve as a sign of U.S. recessions: Insights from the housing and credit markets

  2024cites this paper
• Near-term forward rate spread and commodity index relationship with real economic activity in Brazil

  2024cites this paper
• Persistent trends and inefficiencies in the Greek housing market: a sentiment based approach

  2024cites this paper
• Has the Recession Started?

  2024cites this paper
• Can U.S. macroeconomic indicators forecast cryptocurrency volatility?

  2024cites this paper
• A Post-Pandemic New Normal for Interest Rates in Emerging Bond Markets? Evidence from Chile

  2024cites this paper
• Are Industry Returns Informative about Other Industries and Fundamentals?

  2024cites this paper
• Nowcasting Recession Risk

  2024cites this paper
• Dynamic Capital Structure Adjustment: An Integrated Analysis of Firm-Specific and Macroeconomic Factors in Korean Firms

  2024cites this paper
• Scoring Six Detrending Methods on Timing, Lead-Lag Relations, and Cycle Periods: An Empirical Study of US and UK Recessions 1977–2020

  2024cites this paper
• Hybrid Yield curves modeling in WAEMU Zone

  2024cites this paper
• Do corporate credit spreads predict the real economy?

  2024cites this paper
• The term structure of interest rates as predictor of stock market volatility

  2024cites this paper
• The shape of business cycles: A cross‐country analysis of Friedman's plucking theory

  2024cites this paper
• Discrete Probability Forecasts: What to expect when you are expecting a monetary policy decision

  2024cites this paper
• The term structure of interest rates and economic activity: Evidence from the COVID‐19 pandemic

  2024cites this paper
• The Predictive Power of the Term Spread and Financial Variables for Economic Activity Across Countries

  2024cites this paper
• The Inverted Yield Curve in a 3-Equation Model

  2024cites this paper
• Term premium in Turkish lira interest rates: The role of foreign investors’ share

  2024cites this paper
• A Century of Macro Factor Investing—Diversified Multi-Asset Multi-Factor Strategies through the Cycles

  2024cites this paper
• World ESG performance and economic activity

  2024cites this paper
• Examining the impact of central clearing and swap execution facilities on interest rate swap spreads and their determinants

  2024cites this paper
• Global Risk Aversion: Driving Force of Future Real Economic Activity

  2024cites this paper
• Money/Asset Ratio as a Predictor of Inflation

  2024cites this paper
• Determinants of CDS in Core and Peripheral European Countries: A Comparative Study During Crisis and Calm Periods

  2024cites this paper
• Debt Maturity Choice and Aggregate Growth

  2024cites this paper
• Data patterns that reliably precede US recessions

  2024cites this paper
• Predicting economic growth: evidence from real-estate loans securitization

  2023cites this paper
• Macroeconomics and the Spanish stock market, impact-response analysis

  2023cites this paper
• Multi-Country and Multi-Horizon GDP Forecasting Using Temporal Fusion Transformers

  2023cites this paper
• On Illiquidity of an Emerging Sovereign Bond Market

  2023cites this paper
• Creating Disasters: Recession Forecasting with GAN-Generated Synthetic Time Series Data

  2023cites this paper
• Vintage article: the effect of monetary policy shocks in the UK: an external instruments approach

  2023cites this paper
• Fundamentals, real-time uncertainty and CDS index spreads

  2023cites this paper
• ROC and PRC Approaches to Evaluate Recession Forecasts

  2023cites this paper
• A Time-varying Skewness Model for Growth-at-Risk

  2023cites this paper
• Assessing Economic Activities by Using Term Spreads

  2023cites this paper
• Corporate credit risk counter-cyclical interdependence: A systematic analysis of cross-border and cross-sector correlation dynamics

  2023cites this paper
• Towards a macroprudential regulatory framework for mutual funds?

  2023cites this paper
• Predicting Recessions Using VIX-Yield-Curve Cycles

  2023cites this paper
• Uncertainty and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

  2023cites this paper
• Risk Aversion and Real Economic Activity: A Macro-Finance Perspective

  2023cites this paper
• A probit-based analysis of the deep stock market drawdowns

  2023cites this paper
• A Time‐Varying Finance‐Led Model for U.S. Business Cycles

  2023cites this paper
• Hedging pressure and oil volatility: Insurance versus liquidity demands

  2023cites this paper
• Banks’ net interest rate spread and the transmission of monetary policy in Korea

  2023cites this paper
• Canary in the Coal Mine: Bank Liquidity Shortages and Local Economic Activity

  2023cites this paper
• The Yield Spread as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium

  2023cites this paper
• Equity return volatility in Africa’s stock markets: A dynamic panel approach

  2023cites this paper
• The crucial role of the five-year Treasury in the US yield curve

  2023cites this paper
• The effect of macroeconomic news announcements on the implied volatility of commodities: The role of survey releases

  2023cites this paper
• Forecasting Economic Growth: Evidence from housing, banking, and credit conditions

  2023cites this paper
• Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks

  2023cites this paper