Regional climate model projections for the State of Washington

Global climate models do not have sufficient spatial resolution to represent the atmospheric and land surface processes that determine the unique regional climate of the State of Washington. Regional climate models explicitly simulate the interactions between the large-scale weather patterns simulated by a global model and the local terrain. We have performed two 100-year regional climate simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). One simulation is forced by the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) and the second is forced by a simulation of the Max Plank Institute, Hamburg, global model (ECHAM5). The mesoscale simulations produce regional changes in snow cover, cloudiness, and circulation patterns associated with interactions between the large-scale climate change and the regional topography and land-water contrasts. These changes substantially alter the temperature and precipitation trends over the region relative to the global model result or statistical downscaling. To illustrate this effect, we analyze the changes from the current climate (1970–1999) to the mid twenty-first century (2030–2059). Changes in seasonal-mean temperature, precipitation, and snowpack are presented. Several climatological indices of extreme daily weather are also presented: precipitation intensity, fraction of precipitation occurring in extreme daily events, heat wave frequency, growing season length, and frequency of warm nights. Despite somewhat different changes in seasonal precipitation and temperature from the two regional simulations, consistent results for changes in snowpack and extreme precipitation are found in both simulations.

• Publication year

  2010

• Venue

  Climatic Change

• Publication date

  2010-05-05

• Fields of study

  Environmental Science

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1007/S10584-010-9849-Y
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

• Elevation gradients of European climate change in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM

  2012cited by this paper
• The Nature of Climate Science for the Rocky Mountain West: Implications for Economists Trying to Help Agriculture Adapt

  2011cited by this paper
• U.S. National Forests adapt to climate change through Science–Management partnerships

  2011cited by this paper
• Climate change impacts on water management in the Puget Sound region, Washington State, USA

  2010cited by this paper
• Precipitation extremes and the impacts of climate change on stormwater infrastructure in Washington State

  2010cited by this paper
• Public health impacts of climate change in Washington State: projected mortality risks due to heat events and air pollution

  2010cited by this paper
• Future climate in the Pacific Northwest

  2010influential reference
• Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington State

  2010cited by this paper
• Evaluation of WRF and HadRM Mesoscale Climate Simulations over the U.S. Pacific Northwest

  2009cited by this paper
• Climate Change Impacts on Water Management in the Puget Sound Region, Washington, USA

  2009cited by this paper
• Assessing the Impacts of Global Warming on Snowpack in the Washington Cascades

  2009influential reference
• A High-Resolution Climate Model for the U.S. Pacific Northwest: Mesoscale Feedbacks and Local Responses to Climate Change*

  2008influential reference
• Going to the extremes

  2007cited by this paper
• Discussions are under open-access review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Has spring snowpack declined in the Washington Cascades ?

  2007cited by this paper
• Research Needs and Directions of Regional Climate Modeling Using WRF and CCSM

  2006cited by this paper
• The Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3)

  2006cited by this paper
• Going to the Extremes

  2006cited by this paper
• Downscaling simulations of future global climate with application to hydrologic modelling

  2005influential reference
• Mid-Century Ensemble Regional Climate Change Scenarios for the Western United States

  2004cited by this paper
• A Revised Approach to Ice Microphysical Processes for the Bulk Parameterization of Clouds and Precipitation

  2004cited by this paper
• Description of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 3.0)

  2004influential reference
• Hydrologic Implications of Dynamical and Statistical Approaches to Downscaling Climate Model Outputs

  2004cited by this paper
• The Max-Planck-Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates

  2003cited by this paper
• Comparison of various precipitation downscaling methods for the simulation of streamflow in a rainshadow river basin

  2003influential reference
• The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM 5. PART I: Model description

  2003cited by this paper
• Hydroclimate of the Western United States Based on Observations and Regional Climate Simulation of 1981–2000. Part I: Seasonal Statistics

  2003cited by this paper
• Hydroclimate of the Western United States Based on Observations and Regional Climate Simulation of 1981–2000. Part II: Mesoscale ENSO Anomalies

  2003cited by this paper
• Gridded North American monthly snow depth and snow water equivalent for GCM evaluation

  2003influential reference
• Statistical Precipitation Downscaling over the Northwestern United States Using Numerically Simulated Precipitation as a Predictor

  2003influential reference
• The Sensitivity of Precipitation and Snowpack Simulations to Model Resolution via Nesting in Regions of Complex Terrain

  2003cited by this paper
• Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century

  2002cited by this paper
• Coupling an Advanced Land Surface–Hydrology Model with the Penn State–NCAR MM5 Modeling System. Part I: Model Implementation and Sensitivity

  2001cited by this paper
• Special report on emissions scenarios

  2000cited by this paper
• Transient Climate Change Simulations with a Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean GCM Including the Tropospheric Sulfur Cycle

  1999cited by this paper
• Introduction to special section : Regional climate modeling revisited

  1999cited by this paper
• Nonlocal Boundary Layer Vertical Diffusion in a Medium-Range Forecast Model

  1996cited by this paper
• Going to Extremes

  1995cited by this paper
• A Statistical-Topographic Model for Mapping Climatological Precipitation over Mountainous Terrain

  1994influential reference
• The Representation of Cumulus Convection in Numerical Models

  1993cited by this paper
• Convective parameterization for mesoscale models : The Kain-Fritsch Scheme

  1993cited by this paper

• Evaluation of model performance in simulating extreme precipitation indices over eastern China: A comparison of CORDEX and NEX-GDDP models

  2026cites this paper
• Evaluation of WRF-Downscaled CMIP5 Climate Simulations for Precipitation and Temperature over Thailand (1976–2005): Implications for Adaptation and Sustainable Development

  2025cites this paper
• The effect of climate change on the simulated streamflow of six Canadian rivers based on the CanRCM4 regional climate model

  2025cites this paper
• Future Climate Projections for Louisiana and Mississippi Using WRF: Are Extreme Heat and Precipitation Events Intensifying?

  2025cites this paper
• Assessing the Geographic Generalization and Physical Consistency of Generative Models for Climate Downscaling

  2025cites this paper
• End-of-Century Changes in Orographic Precipitation with the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research Model over the Western United States

  2025cites this paper
• Unprecedented rainfall events increase the magnitude of design storms

  2025cites this paper
• Machine learning for the physics of climate

  2024cites this paper
• Urban extreme heat, climate change, and saving lives: Lessons from Washington state

  2023cites this paper
• Climate Change Scenarios

  2023cites this paper
• Landscape-Scale Long-Term Drought Prevalence Mapping for Small Municipalities Adaptation, the Czech Republic Case Study

  2023cites this paper
• Future Snow Changes over the Columbia Mountains, Canada, using a Distributed Snow Model

  2022cites this paper
• CMIP6 model fidelity at simulating large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and associated temperature and precipitation over the Pacific Northwest

  2022cites this paper
• ANALYZING THE IMPACT OF BUILT UP AND GREEN SPACES ON LANDSURFACE TEMPERATURE WITH SATELLITE IMAGES IN JALANDHAR SMART CITY

  2022cites this paper
• Climate Changes and Their Elevational Patterns in the Mountains of the World

  2022cites this paper
• Warming alters the interaction of two invasive beachgrasses with implications for range shifts and coastal dune functions

  2021influential citation
• Climate change/variability and hydrological modelling studies in Zimbabwe: a review of progress and knowledge gaps

  2021cites this paper
• Gene expression for secondary metabolite biosynthesis in hop (Humulus lupulus L.) leaf lupulin glands exposed to heat and low-water stress

  2021cites this paper
• Downscaling Climate Information

  2021cites this paper
• Modelled changes in selected agroclimatic indices over the croplands of western Canada under the RCP8.5 scenario

  2021cites this paper
• Climate Change Alters The Interaction of Two Invasive Beachgrasses With Implications For Range Shifts And Coastal Dune Functions

  2021influential citation
• Spatiotemporal Analysis of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) Changes and Precipitation Trends in Shanghai

  2020cites this paper
• The Challenges of Early Life for Coniferous Trees of the Pacific Northwest

  2020cites this paper
• Scaling Low Resolution Regional Climate Model Results to High Resolution for Predicting Rice and Maize Production under Climate Change Disaster Scenario

  2020cites this paper
• Sensitivity of simulated climate over the MENA region related to different land surface schemes in the WRF model

  2020influential citation
• Land use regression modeling of microscale urban air temperatures in greater Vancouver, Canada

  2020cites this paper
• Photosynthetic Activity of Six Hop (Humulus lupulus L.) Cultivars under Different Temperature Treatments

  2020cites this paper
• Numerical Study of the Urban Heat Island in Sendai City with Potential Natural Vegetation and the 1850s and 2000s Land-Use Data

  2019cites this paper
• Updates to the Noah Land Surface Model in WRF‐CMAQ to Improve Simulated Meteorology, Air Quality, and Deposition

  2019cites this paper
• Amplification of Australian Heatwaves via Local Land‐Atmosphere Coupling

  2019cites this paper
• Evaluation of regional climate model simulated rainfall over Indonesia and its application for downscaling future climate projections

  2019cites this paper
• Added Value of a Dynamical Downscaling Approach for Simulating Precipitation and Temperature Over Tianshan Mountains Area, Central Asia

  2019cites this paper
• Assessment of coastal turbidity improvement potential by terrigenous sediment load reduction and its implications on seagrass inhabitable area in Banate Bay, central Philippines.

  2019cites this paper
• Automated retrieval, preprocessing, and visualization of gridded hydrometeorology data products for spatial-temporal exploratory analysis and intercomparison

  2019cites this paper
• Trend analysis of watershed-scale annual and seasonal precipitation in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled future climate projections

  2018cites this paper
• Elements of disturbance that affect epiphyte vitality in a temperate rainforest: an experimental approach

  2018cites this paper
• Combining Multiphase Groundwater Flow and Slope Stability Models to Assess Stratovolcano Flank Collapse in the Cascade Range

  2018cites this paper
• A 30‐year convection‐permitting regional climate simulation over the interior western United States. Part I: Validation

  2018cites this paper
• Climate Change, Heavy Precipitation and Flood Risk in the Western United States

  2018influential citation
• Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Stream Temperature in the Nooksack River Basin

  2018cites this paper
• Glacier Recession and the Response of Summer Streamflow in the Pacific Northwest United States, 1960–2099

  2018cites this paper
• The Effects of Forecasted Climate Change on Mass Wasting Susceptibility in the Nooksack River Basin

  2018cites this paper
• Projected changes in future climate over the Midwest and Great Lakes region using downscaled CMIP5 ensembles

  2018cites this paper
• Analyzing coastal turbidity under complex terrestrial loads characterized by a 'stress connectivity matrix' with an atmosphere-watershed-coastal ocean coupled model

  2018cites this paper
• Climate robust culvert design: Probabilistic estimates of fish passage impediments for Washington State

  2018cites this paper
• Climate Change and Its Impacts: Risks and Inequalities

  2018cites this paper
• Study on the urban heat island in Sofia City: Numerical simulations with potential natural vegetation and present land use data

  2018cites this paper
• Microscale air temperature mapping in greater Vancouver, British Columbia

  2018cites this paper
• Seasonal spatial patterns of projected anthropogenic warming in complex terrain: a modeling study of the western US

  2017influential citation
• A Performance Evaluation of Dynamical Downscaling of Precipitation over Northern California

  2017cites this paper
• An Analysis of Regional Climate Simulations for Western Australia’s Wine Regions—Model Evaluation and Future Climate Projections

  2017cites this paper
• High resolution climate projections to assess the future vulnerability of European urban areas to climatological extreme events

  2017cites this paper
• Simulaci\'on del flujo de viento sobre el territorio de Guatemala utilizando un modelo clim\'atico regional

  2017cites this paper
• Simulation of regional temperature change effect of land cover change in agroforestry ecotone of Nenjiang River Basin in China

  2017cites this paper
• Regional climate projections of mean and extreme climate for the southwest of Western Australia (1970–1999 compared to 2030–2059)

  2017cites this paper
• The effect of radiation parameterization schemes on surface temperature in regional climate simulations over the MENA‐CORDEX domain

  2017cites this paper
• Projected Hydro-climatic Changes in Two Major River Basins at the Canadian West Coast Based on High-resolution Regional Climate Simulations

  2017influential citation
• Significant and Inevitable End-of-Twenty-First-Century Advances in Surface Runoff Timing in California’s Sierra Nevada

  2017cites this paper
• Changing Streamflow in Icicle, Peshastin, and Mission Creeks

  2017cites this paper
• Regional climate projections for the South West of Western Australia to simulate changes in mean and extreme rainfall and temperature

  2016cites this paper
• High‐resolution ensemble projections of near‐term regional climate over the continental United States

  2016cites this paper
• Evaluating the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on winter precipitation in The Cascades using a mixed-physics WRF ensemble

  2016cites this paper
• Superensemble Regional Climate Modeling for the Western United States

  2016cites this paper
• Significant and inevitable end-of-21 st-century advances in 1 surface runoff timing in California ’ s Sierra Nevada 2 3 4

  2016cites this paper
• Modeling postglacial vegetation dynamics of temperate forests on the Olympic Peninsula (WA, USA) with special regard to snowpack

  2016cites this paper
• Projected Changes in Heat Extremes and Associated Synoptic- and Mesoscale Conditions over the Northwest United States

  2016cites this paper
• Regional climate simulations of the changes in the components of the moisture budget over South America

  2016cites this paper
• Volunteers contributing idle computing time are helping to create an unprecedented combination of high-spatial and high-statistical resolution in simulations of climate in the western United States for 1960-2009 and 2030-49. SUPERENSEMBLE REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELING FOR THE WESTERN UNITED STATES

  2016cites this paper
• Effect of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Chehalis B asin

  2016cites this paper
• Characterizing Drought for Forested Landscapes and Streams

  2016cites this paper
• Combined Effects of Projected Sea Level Rise, Storm Surge, and Peak River Flows on Water Levels in the Skagit Floodplain

  2016cites this paper
• Contributing factors for drought in United States forest ecosystems under projected future climates and their uncertainty

  2016cites this paper
• The Impact of Incongruous Lake Temperatures on Regional Climate Extremes Downscaled from the CMIP5 Archive Using the WRF Model

  2016cites this paper
• Modeling the Effects of Forecasted Climate Change and Glacier Recession on Late Summer Streamflow in the Upper Nooksack River Basin

  2016cites this paper
• River stage influences on uranium transport in a hydrologically dynamic groundwater‐surface water transition zone

  2016cites this paper
• A Hybrid Dynamical-Statistical Downscaling Technique. Part II: End-of-Century Warming Projections Predict a New Climate State in the Los Angeles Region

  2015cites this paper
• Supporting Provenance in Climate Science Research

  2015cites this paper
• High Resolution Hydro-climatological Projections for Western Canada

  2015cites this paper
• Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Wetlands

  2015cites this paper
• Downscaling Global Climate Simulations to Regional Scales: Statistical Downscaling versus Dynamical Downscaling

  2015cites this paper
• Present-day and future climate pathways affecting Alexandrium blooms in Puget Sound, WA, USA.

  2015cites this paper
• A Hybrid Dynamical–Statistical Downscaling Technique. Part I: Development and Validation of the Technique

  2015cites this paper
• Hydrologic control of dissolved organic matter concentration and quality in a semiarid artificially drained agricultural catchment

  2015cites this paper
• Evaluation of a Regional Climate Modeling Effort for the Western United States Using a Superensemble from Weather@home*

  2015cites this paper
• Multidecadal Evaluation of WRF Downscaling Capabilities over Western Australia in Simulating Rainfall and Temperature Extremes

  2015cites this paper
• An observationally based evaluation of WRF seasonal simulations over the Central and Eastern Pacific

  2015cites this paper
• Dynamically Downscaled High-Resolution Hydroclimate Projections for Western Canada

  2015influential citation
• Disaggregation of SMOS soil moisture over the Canadian Prairies

  2015cites this paper
• Sensitivity of WRF to driving data and physics options on a seasonal time-scale for the southwest of Western Australia

  2015influential citation
• The elevation dependency of 21st century European climate change: an RCM ensemble perspective

  2015cites this paper
• Elk (Cervus elaphus) response to anthropogenic disturbance: hunting, land use, and climate change

  2015cites this paper
• Recruitment limitation of long-lived conifers: implications for climate change responses.

  2015cites this paper
• A Hybrid Dynamical-Statistical Downscaling 1 Technique , Part I : Development and Validation 2 of the Technique 3 4 5

  2014cites this paper
• Reliability of regional and global climate models to simulate precipitation extremes over India

  2014cites this paper
• The effects of global change upon United States air quality

  2014cites this paper
• Climate Change in North America

  2014cites this paper
• Regional Assessment of Sampling Techniques for More Efficient Dynamical Climate Downscaling

  2014cites this paper
• Climate Change and Indigenous Peoples in the United States: Impacts, Experiences and Actions

  2014cites this paper
• Soil and water conservation in the Pacific Northwest through no-tillage and intensified crop rotations

  2014influential citation
• Evaluating Hydroclimatic Change Signals from Statistically and Dynamically Downscaled GCMs and Hydrologic Models

  2014cites this paper