The WTO trade effect

P. Chang,Myoung‐jae Lee

Published 2011 in Journal of International Economics

ABSTRACT

This paper reexamines the GATT/WTO membership efiect on bilateral trade ∞ows, using nonparametric methods including pair-matching, permutation tests, and a Rosenbaum (2002) sensitivity analysis. Together, these methods provide an estimation framework that is robust to misspeciflcation biases, allows general forms of heterogeneous treatment efiects, and addresses potential hidden selection biases. This is in contrast to most conventional parametric studies on this issue. Our results suggest large GATT/WTO trade-promoting efiects, robust to various restricted matching criteria, alternative indicators for GATT/WTO involvement, different matching methodologies, non-random incidence of positive trade ∞ows, and inclusion of multilateral resistance terms.

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