Causal Counterfactual Theory for the Attribution of Weather and Climate-Related Events

No abstract is available for this paper.

• Publication year

  2016

• Venue

  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

• Publication date

  2016-02-15

• Fields of study

  Mathematics, Philosophy, Environmental Science

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00034.1
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

• Summary for Policymakers

  2022cited by this paper
• Living on the Real World: How Thinking and Acting like Meteorologists Will Help Save the Planet

  2014cited by this paper
• Attribution of Weather and Climate-Related Events

  2013influential reference
• Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis

  2013cited by this paper
• Framing the way to relate climate extremes to climate change

  2012cited by this paper
• Climate change in court

  2011cited by this paper
• Climate dynamics and fluid mechanics: Natural variability and related uncertainties

  2008cited by this paper
• Graphical models for statistical inference and data assimilation

  2007cited by this paper
• A Linear Non-Gaussian Acyclic Model for Causal Discovery

  2006cited by this paper
• The End-to-End Attribution Problem: From Emissions to Impacts

  2005cited by this paper
• Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003

  2004influential reference
• Liability for climate change

  2003cited by this paper
• Causation, Prediction, and Search

  2003cited by this paper
• An enquiry concerning human understanding ; A dissertation on the passions ; An enquiry concerning the principles of morals ; and, The natural history of religion

  2002cited by this paper
• Climatic Change

  year unknowncited by this paper
• Causality : Models , Reasoning , and Inference

  year unknowninfluential reference

• Non-stationary time series attribution for heatwaves over Europe

  2026influential citation
• Mitigating urban heat exposure inequity with a seasonally adaptive machine-learning approach

  2026cites this paper
• Can stratospheric nudging improve surface predictability? Insights from the 2019 Southern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warming

  2025cites this paper
• Intensity and dynamics of extreme cold spells of the 21st century in France from CMIP6 data

  2025cites this paper
• Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors

  2025cites this paper
• Advancing causal inference in ecology: Pathways for biodiversity change detection and attribution

  2025cites this paper
• A Causal Inference Framework for Climate Change Attribution in Ecology.

  2025cites this paper
• On the importance of tail assumptions in climate extreme event attribution

  2025influential citation
• The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v2.0) contribution to CMIP7

  2025cites this paper
• Impact of Autumn Arctic Sea Ice concentration on Siberian High: Insights from causal relationship

  2025cites this paper
• European heat extremes under net-zero emissions

  2025cites this paper
• Assimilative causal inference

  2025cites this paper
• Causal attribution from retrospective data in Canada's woodland caribou system

  2025cites this paper
• Can simulations aid counterfactual reasoning?

  2025cites this paper
• Destination Competitiveness Improvement: Insights From Causal Counterfactual AI Analysis

  2025cites this paper
• CGNet-PIE: A causal generative approach for urban planning intervention effect estimation

  2025cites this paper
• The Probability of Tiered Benefit: Partial Identification with Robust and Stable Inference

  2025cites this paper
• Artificial intelligence for modeling and understanding extreme weather and climate events

  2025cites this paper
• Beschleunigung umweltpolitischer Entscheidungen durch verlässliche Daten und effiziente statistische Methoden

  2025cites this paper
• Granger causal inference for climate change attribution

  2024cites this paper
• Attribution of extremes to greenhouse gas-induced changes in regional climate variability, distinct from changes in mean climate

  2024cites this paper
• Causes of extreme events revealed by Rényi information transfer

  2024cites this paper
• AI for Extreme Event Modeling and Understanding: Methodologies and Challenges

  2024cites this paper
• Time variability and periodicities of cross‐regional hydroclimatic causation in the contiguous United States

  2024cites this paper
• An assessment of the correlations and causations of palaeo-hydroclimatic variability in India’s monsoon-dominated Central Himalaya

  2024cites this paper
• Spatial-temporal dynamics of population exposure to compound extreme heat-precipitation events under multiple scenarios for Pearl River Basin, China

  2024cites this paper
• Causality and extremes

  2024cites this paper
• Anthropogenic aerosols mask increases in US rainfall by greenhouse gases

  2024cites this paper
• Arctic marine heatwaves forced by greenhouse gases and triggered by abrupt sea-ice melt

  2024influential citation
• The growing inadequacy of an open-ended Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale in a warming world

  2024cites this paper
• Quantifying agents’ causal responsibility in dynamical systems

  2024cites this paper
• European heatwave tracks: using causal discovery to detect recurring pathways in a single-regional climate model large ensemble

  2023cites this paper
• Decrease of the spatial variability and local dimension of the Euro-Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream with global warming

  2023cites this paper
• Avoided wildfire impact modeling with counterfactual probabilistic analysis

  2023influential citation
• A Study on the Impact of Non-confounding Covariates on the Inferential Performance of Methods based on the Potential Outcome Framework

  2023cites this paper
• The Emulated Targeted Trial: A Causal, But Never Casual, Surrogate for Randomized Clinical Trials.

  2023cites this paper
• On Hens, Eggs, Temperatures and CO2: Causal Links in Earth’s Atmosphere

  2023cites this paper
• The insight of why: Causal inference in Earth system science

  2023cites this paper
• Climate impact storylines for assessing socio-economic responses to remote events

  2023cites this paper
• Does Misclassifying Non-confounding Covariates as Confounders Affect the Causal Inference within the Potential Outcomes Framework?

  2023cites this paper
• VLUCI: Variational Learning of Unobserved Confounders for Counterfactual Inference

  2023cites this paper
• Causal inference for time series

  2023cites this paper
• The global costs of extreme weather that are attributable to climate change

  2023cites this paper
• Simulation-Based Counterfactual Causal Discovery on Real World Driver Behaviour

  2023cites this paper
• A framework for the detection and attribution of biodiversity change

  2023cites this paper
• Discovering Causal Relations and Equations from Data

  2023cites this paper
• Big Data in Earth system science and progress towards a digital twin

  2023cites this paper
• Intangible Losses, Damages and At-Risk Settlements: The Extent of Causality and Burden of Proof for Climate Related Loss and Damage in the Fiji Islands

  2023cites this paper
• Causal Discovery from Temporal Data: An Overview and New Perspectives

  2023cites this paper
• Overstating the effects of anthropogenic climate change? A critical assessment of attribution methods in climate science

  2023cites this paper
• Review of counterfactual land change modeling for causal inference in land system science

  2023cites this paper
• Evaluating Temporal Observation-Based Causal Discovery Techniques Applied to Road Driver Behaviour

  2023cites this paper
• Emerging Synergies in Causality and Deep Generative Models: A Survey

  2023cites this paper
• Can machine learning accelerate process understanding and decision‐relevant predictions of river water quality?

  2022cites this paper
• Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): A Protocol for Investigating the Role of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex in Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts

  2022cites this paper
• Effects of urbanization on heat waves based on the wet-bulb temperature in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, China

  2022cites this paper
• Revisiting causality using stochastics: 1. Theory

  2022influential citation
• Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts

  2022cites this paper
• A framework for detection and attribution of regional precipitation change: Application to the United States historical record

  2022cites this paper
• Typicality of the 2021 Western North America summer heatwave

  2022cites this paper
• Recent marine heatwaves in the North Pacific warming pool can be attributed to rising atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases

  2022cites this paper
• Causality and the fate of climate litigation: The role of the social superstructure narrative

  2022cites this paper
• Climate impact storylines for assessing socio-economic responses to remote events

  2022cites this paper
• Theoretical and paleoclimatic evidence for abrupt transitions in the Earth system

  2022cites this paper
• A S URVEY OF D EEP C AUSAL M ODELS

  2022cites this paper
• Attributions for extreme weather events: science and the people

  2022influential citation
• Inferring the Causes of Real-World Rogue Waves

  2022cites this paper
• Anthropogenic Contributions to the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

  2022cites this paper
• Attribution of the human influence on heavy rainfall associated with flooding events during the 2012, 2016, and 2018 March-April-May seasons in Kenya

  2022cites this paper
• Canadian contributions to environmetrics

  2022cites this paper
• Simplifying Causality: A Brief Review of Philosophical Views and Definitions with Examples from Economics, Education, Medicine, Policy, Physics and Engineering

  2022cites this paper
• Greenhouse Gas Forcing a Necessary Causation for Marine Heatwaves Over the Northeast Pacific Warming Pool

  2022influential citation
• Detecting and Attributing Change in Climate and Complex Systems: Foundations, Green's Functions, and Nonlinear Fingerprints.

  2022cites this paper
• Filling the evidentiary gap in climate litigation

  2021cites this paper
• Was the cold European winter 2009-2010 modified by anthropogenic climate change? An attribution study

  2021cites this paper
• Implications of warming on western United States landfalling atmospheric rivers and their flood damages

  2021cites this paper
• Quantifying causal pathways of teleconnections

  2021cites this paper
• Coupled Climate-Economy-Ecology-Biosphere Modeling: A Dynamic and Stochastic Approach

  2021cites this paper
• Estimation and Inference of Extremal Quantile Treatment Effects for Heavy-Tailed Distributions

  2021cites this paper
• Developing a framework for attribution analysis of urban pluvial flooding to human-induced climate impacts

  2021cites this paper
• Causal Bayesian networks in assessments of wildfire risks: Opportunities for ecological risk assessment and management

  2021cites this paper
• Uncertainty and Causality in Public Policy: The Cases of Heart Disease and Climate Change

  2021cites this paper
• Causal inference for process understanding in Earth sciences

  2021cites this paper
• Estimating counterfactuals for evaluation of ecological and conservation impact: an introduction to matching methods

  2021cites this paper
• Causal Discovery of a River Network from its Extremes

  2021cites this paper
• Increased outburst flood hazard from Lake Palcacocha due to human-induced glacier retreat

  2021cites this paper
• Extreme event propagation using counterfactual theory and vine copulas

  2021cites this paper
• Verification of extreme event attribution: Using out-of-sample observations to assess changes in probabilities of unprecedented events

  2020cites this paper
• Hilbert problems for the geosciences in the 21st century – 20 years later

  2020cites this paper
• Inherent uncertainty disguises attribution of reduced atmospheric CO2 growth to CO2 emission reductions for up to a decade

  2020influential citation
• Slow-down of the greening trend in natural vegetation with further rise in atmospheric CO2

  2020influential citation
• Predictors and predictands of linear response in spatially extended systems

  2020cites this paper
• Atmospheric Temperature and CO2: Hen-Or-Egg Causality?

  2020influential citation
• Severe weather event attribution: Why values won't go away.

  2020cites this paper
• Human contribution to the record-breaking June and July 2019 heatwaves in Western Europe

  2020cites this paper
• Neural Additive Vector Autoregression Models for Causal Discovery in Time Series Data

  2020cites this paper
• The Fingerprint of Anthropogenic Warming on Global Agriculture

  2020cites this paper
• A SPATIAL CAUSAL ANALYSIS OF WILDLAND FIRE-CONTRIBUTED PM2.5 USING NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUT.

  2020influential citation
• Review article: Hilbert problems for the climate sciences in the 21st century – 20 years later

  2020influential citation
• Contribution of urbanization to the changes in extreme climate events in urban agglomerations across China.

  2020cites this paper