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Frequency of severe thunderstorms across Europe expected to increase in the 21st century due to rising instability

Anja T. Rädler,P. Groenemeijer,E. Faust,R. Sausen,T. Púčik

Published 2019 in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

ABSTRACT

We show that the frequency of damaging convective weather events including lightning, hail and severe wind gusts will likely increase over Europe until the end of this century. We apply a set of additive regression models to an ensemble of 14 regional climate simulations and find that convective instability will increase as a result of rising humidity near the earth’s surface. Even though a slight decrease in thunderstorm occurrence in southwestern and southeastern Europe is projected, the probability of severe weather will increase throughout Europe, in particular for very large hail. It might be expected that Arctic amplification would lead to a weaker jet stream and, thus lower vertical wind shear, but we find instead that the jet changes little or even increases in situations with convective instability. To cope with the rising hazard probabilities, risk models will need to be adapted, while investment in sturdier structures, like the use of hardened glass in greenhouses or solar panels, will become more cost-effective. Furthermore, the need will grow to advise the public on loss prevention by taking precautionary measures as storms approach.Climate Change: Lightening more likely to strike twice in Europe?Damaging weather events such as lightning, hail, and severe wind gusts are likely to become more common across Europe over the next several decades. Increased global temperatures, high low-level humidity levels and a changing polar jet stream are all associated with anthropogenic climate change; however, the implications of such projected changes in relation to severe weather events are still being explored. Here, Anja Rädler and colleagues use numerical simulations of regional climate to predict the severity and frequency of convective storms in Europe under projected anthropogenic climate conditions. They find that the probability of severe weather and thunderstorms are expected to increase throughout Europe, and in particular, very large hail is likely to become more common. Therefore, public warnings and precautionary measures and should be actioned as storms approach.

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