Forecasting Fire Season Severity in South America Using Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Sea surface temperature anomalies can predict annual fire season severity in South America up to 3 to 5 months in advance. Fires in South America cause forest degradation and contribute to carbon emissions associated with land use change. We investigated the relationship between year-to-year changes in fire activity in South America and sea surface temperatures. We found that the Oceanic Niño Index was correlated with interannual fire activity in the eastern Amazon, whereas the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index was more closely linked with fires in the southern and southwestern Amazon. Combining these two climate indices, we developed an empirical model to forecast regional fire season severity with lead times of 3 to 5 months. Our approach may contribute to the development of an early warning system for anticipating the vulnerability of Amazon forests to fires, thus enabling more effective management with benefits for climate and air quality.

• Publication year

  2011

• Venue

  Science

• Publication date

  2011-11-11

• Fields of study

  Medicine, Environmental Science

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1126/science.1209472PMID 22076373
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar, PubMed

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

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